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_sources/beta_binomial.ipynb

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"# The All-Knowing Cube of Probability\n",
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"\n",
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"> This example uses array computations to explore the concept of conjugate distributions.\n",
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"It is an extension of *[Think Bayes](https://greenteapress.com/wp/think-bayes/)*, [Chapter 18](https://allendowney.github.io/ThinkBayes2/chap18.html), which explains how to use conjugate priors to do Bayesian updates with very little computation. \n",
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"It is an extension of *[Think Bayes](https://greenteapress.com/wp/think-bayes/)*, [Chapter 18](https://allendowney.github.io/ThinkBayes2/chap18.html), which explains how to use conjugate priors to do Bayesian updates with very little computation.\n",
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"\n",
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"[Click here to run this notebook on Colab](https://colab.research.google.com/github/AllenDowney/ThinkBayes2/blob/master/examples/beta_binomial.ipynb)\n",
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"\n",
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"The all-knowing cube of probability is an 3-D array that contains the past, the present, and the probabilistic future.\n",
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"\n",

_sources/chap19.ipynb

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"# MCMC"
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]
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "markdown",
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"metadata": {
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"tags": [
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"remove-cell"
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]
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},
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"source": [
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"Think Bayes, Second Edition\n",
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"\n",
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"Copyright 2020 Allen B. Downey\n",
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"\n",
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"License: [Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/)"
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]
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": 1,
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"But the problems we can solve this way tend to be the same ones we can solve with grid algorithms.\n",
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"\n",
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"For problems with more than a few parameters, the most powerful tool we have is MCMC, which stands for \"Markov chain Monte Carlo\".\n",
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"In this context, \"Monte Carlo\" refers to to methods that generate random samples from a distribution.\n",
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"In this context, \"Monte Carlo\" refers to methods that generate random samples from a distribution.\n",
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"Unlike grid methods, MCMC methods don't try to compute the posterior distribution; they sample from it instead.\n",
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"\n",
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"It might seem strange that you can generate a sample without ever computing the distribution, but that's the magic of MCMC.\n",
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" az.plot_posterior(trace9)"
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]
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "markdown",
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"metadata": {
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"tags": [
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"remove-cell"
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]
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},
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"source": [
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"Think Bayes, Second Edition\n",
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"\n",
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"Copyright 2020 Allen B. Downey\n",
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"\n",
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"License: [Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/)"
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]
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"metadata": {
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"celltoolbar": "Tags",
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"kernelspec": {
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"display_name": "Python 3",
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"display_name": "Python 3 (ipykernel)",
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"language": "python",
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"name": "python3"
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},
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"name": "python",
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"nbconvert_exporter": "python",
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"pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
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"version": "3.8.8"
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"version": "3.10.12"
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}
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},
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"nbformat": 4,

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