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000000000..28c39c0d9 Binary files /dev/null and b/_images/d38733fb3e1c27d07624fab7644d58256a46a860d53a4a8843d8624486366b75.png differ diff --git a/_images/e0278434d5774ed9bb901d6426d3e240be1d4faf78c41d443663326c03e24707.png b/_images/e0278434d5774ed9bb901d6426d3e240be1d4faf78c41d443663326c03e24707.png deleted file mode 100644 index e62d672d5..000000000 Binary files a/_images/e0278434d5774ed9bb901d6426d3e240be1d4faf78c41d443663326c03e24707.png and /dev/null differ diff --git a/_images/69539e2739458d7218e514133841304a4e4b0eb711fc8054497123f2e226d095.svg b/_images/e3093df40c606a365fce51328bb90c832e9b204e89fed0d0688e3e2fdb1677dd.svg similarity index 100% rename from _images/69539e2739458d7218e514133841304a4e4b0eb711fc8054497123f2e226d095.svg rename to _images/e3093df40c606a365fce51328bb90c832e9b204e89fed0d0688e3e2fdb1677dd.svg index 02b4163cb..6acc91819 100644 --- a/_images/69539e2739458d7218e514133841304a4e4b0eb711fc8054497123f2e226d095.svg +++ b/_images/e3093df40c606a365fce51328bb90c832e9b204e89fed0d0688e3e2fdb1677dd.svg @@ -9,22 +9,22 @@ %3 - - -hgf_loglike - -hgf_loglike -~ -Potential - - + tonic_volatility_3 tonic_volatility_3 ~ Normal + + +hgf_loglike + +hgf_loglike +~ +Potential + tonic_volatility_3->hgf_loglike @@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ - + tonic_volatility_2 tonic_volatility_2 diff --git a/_images/e3de64beff5bc17cc47783936c7f3d947a42f11f1ac3796f9a3ae9f0623fd54d.png b/_images/e3de64beff5bc17cc47783936c7f3d947a42f11f1ac3796f9a3ae9f0623fd54d.png deleted file mode 100644 index 2cc07f2c7..000000000 Binary files a/_images/e3de64beff5bc17cc47783936c7f3d947a42f11f1ac3796f9a3ae9f0623fd54d.png and /dev/null differ diff --git a/_images/e43fbff375c6cadc9a178a6909dc6edd05c565b9e0a5cc703c9b87c7c5ff76b8.png b/_images/e43fbff375c6cadc9a178a6909dc6edd05c565b9e0a5cc703c9b87c7c5ff76b8.png deleted file mode 100644 index 0c28e1c09..000000000 Binary files a/_images/e43fbff375c6cadc9a178a6909dc6edd05c565b9e0a5cc703c9b87c7c5ff76b8.png and /dev/null 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--git a/_images/fe8bcf1f9ea76075d8fcc0d29e68955ab7e149a760580d41229e04431f544140.png b/_images/fe8bcf1f9ea76075d8fcc0d29e68955ab7e149a760580d41229e04431f544140.png deleted file mode 100644 index 95eb53902..000000000 Binary files a/_images/fe8bcf1f9ea76075d8fcc0d29e68955ab7e149a760580d41229e04431f544140.png and /dev/null differ diff --git a/_images/fec56c3b25907362b1252355dd1385f1eb8a04c9617d9dc9b20da45c6175a385.png b/_images/fec56c3b25907362b1252355dd1385f1eb8a04c9617d9dc9b20da45c6175a385.png deleted file mode 100644 index 8eeb467cd..000000000 Binary files a/_images/fec56c3b25907362b1252355dd1385f1eb8a04c9617d9dc9b20da45c6175a385.png and /dev/null differ diff --git a/notebooks/0.1-Theory.html b/notebooks/0.1-Theory.html index d707557df..ca82bb6b5 100644 --- a/notebooks/0.1-Theory.html +++ b/notebooks/0.1-Theory.html @@ -913,9 +913,9 @@

System configurationContinuous value coupling -../_images/fe8bcf1f9ea76075d8fcc0d29e68955ab7e149a760580d41229e04431f544140.png +../_images/5c5bd2994cfad74ed78b73adbfc5ae89c38eb13d00f2b8a9af3e9382312d41e9.png
@@ -1076,10 +1076,10 @@

System configuration

diff --git a/notebooks/0.3-Generalised_filtering.html b/notebooks/0.3-Generalised_filtering.html index 27f96ef20..b95bba3ea 100644 --- a/notebooks/0.3-Generalised_filtering.html +++ b/notebooks/0.3-Generalised_filtering.html @@ -945,10 +945,10 @@

System configuration diff --git a/notebooks/1.1-Binary_HGF.html b/notebooks/1.1-Binary_HGF.html index 01dac9e4c..22a369b51 100644 --- a/notebooks/1.1-Binary_HGF.html +++ b/notebooks/1.1-Binary_HGF.html @@ -51,7 +51,7 @@ - + @@ -792,7 +792,7 @@

Sampling self.pid = os.fork() -
/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.12.3/x64/lib/python3.12/multiprocessing/popen_fork.py:66: RuntimeWarning: os.fork() was called. os.fork() is incompatible with multithreaded code, and JAX is multithreaded, so this will likely lead to a deadlock.
+
/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.12.3/x64/lib/python3.12/multiprocessing/popen_fork.py:66: RuntimeWarning: os.fork() was called. os.fork() is incompatible with multithreaded code, and JAX is multithreaded, so this will likely lead to a deadlock.
   self.pid = os.fork()
 

 

@@ -815,7 +815,7 @@ 
Sampling
-../_images/aba693367160c76db95a3b9a966f2749c9e68eca3f3b34736f1a06408872e42d.png +../_images/567d6d69706bd90ba9c5e563596fe7e9c1a4eebaa62b631318bc262e9ac7602e.png
@@ -853,7 +853,7 @@

Using the learned parameters -../_images/693741ae601f9156e52a956ea6bc92f11026d19f8e3b4f4ffb4300d2753fe9cc.png +../_images/51121463bc65570c8d8de9b47cb9e725944cb75259f478411b25e5e9bced8a5d.png
@@ -863,7 +863,7 @@

Using the learned parameters -
Array(202.52997, dtype=float32)
+
Array(202.52956, dtype=float32)
@@ -915,7 +915,7 @@

Visualizing the model -../_images/69539e2739458d7218e514133841304a4e4b0eb711fc8054497123f2e226d095.svg

+../_images/e3093df40c606a365fce51328bb90c832e9b204e89fed0d0688e3e2fdb1677dd.svg

@@ -944,11 +944,7 @@

Sampling# self.pid = os.fork() -
/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.12.3/x64/lib/python3.12/multiprocessing/popen_fork.py:66: RuntimeWarning: os.fork() was called. os.fork() is incompatible with multithreaded code, and JAX is multithreaded, so this will likely lead to a deadlock.
-  self.pid = os.fork()
-
-
-

+

 
 

 
Sampling 2 chains for 1_000 tune and 1_000 draw iterations (2_000 + 2_000 draws total) took 21 seconds.
@@ -967,7 +963,7 @@ 
Sampling#
 

 

 

-../_images/e0278434d5774ed9bb901d6426d3e240be1d4faf78c41d443663326c03e24707.png
+../_images/bb3e9bd5e38c5ae06a2bd74b823e03ccbeed39b4a4c4c4f777658f57d132dec8.png
 

 

 

@@ -1006,7 +1002,7 @@ 
Using the learned parameters
-../_images/14f5c858274eb145476c03a7553d95e8f46705f811e90b1c2256458b8b088d9c.png
+../_images/0b5b263dfb2ae68ee636483cb779ee2da377fa42065a2ea52b58506738cd3d25.png
 
 
 

@@ -1016,7 +1012,7 @@ 
Using the learned parameters
-
Array(203.01022, dtype=float32)
+
Array(203.0094, dtype=float32)
 

 

 

@@ -1044,12 +1040,12 @@ 
System configuration

diff --git a/notebooks/1.2-Categorical_HGF.html b/notebooks/1.2-Categorical_HGF.html
index 04bb8e363..073dff5e6 100644
--- a/notebooks/1.2-Categorical_HGF.html
+++ b/notebooks/1.2-Categorical_HGF.html
@@ -575,7 +575,7 @@ 
Simulating a dataset
 

 

-../_images/6997877b60aae9503375ff4943e939bf7cf1b85f46d40a2551acb4773cf5c928.png
+../_images/763518eed196e37d669000561f4d9c2070f4e406abe4aa4d18a59eabad473e29.png
 

 
 

@@ -689,7 +689,7 @@ 
Fitting the model forwards
-../_images/e3de64beff5bc17cc47783936c7f3d947a42f11f1ac3796f9a3ae9f0623fd54d.png
+../_images/e64e782097f5ce3eade0aed6c4c4b97ca7ab819522e063df6abc74a7c59c505f.png
 

 
 
@@ -847,14 +847,14 @@ 
System configuration
diff --git a/notebooks/1.3-Continuous_HGF.html b/notebooks/1.3-Continuous_HGF.html
index 3d731d096..f2c7aa8c3 100644
--- a/notebooks/1.3-Continuous_HGF.html
+++ b/notebooks/1.3-Continuous_HGF.html
@@ -51,7 +51,7 @@
     
     
     
-    
+    
     
     
     
@@ -817,7 +817,7 @@ 
Visualizing the model
 
 

-../_images/276f245ebd9fd4bcae5e926f51a69ac0c4a8b7994776641b7ca80207aba0e073.svg

+../_images/0747ca4d2db1d73075db0036fa2d7adb40e86a06d3c587c73103c1d2a5698bb6.svg
 
 
 

@@ -846,14 +846,10 @@ 
Sampling
   self.pid = os.fork()
 
 
-
/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.12.3/x64/lib/python3.12/multiprocessing/popen_fork.py:66: RuntimeWarning: os.fork() was called. os.fork() is incompatible with multithreaded code, and JAX is multithreaded, so this will likely lead to a deadlock.
-  self.pid = os.fork()
-

-

-

+

 
 

-
Sampling 2 chains for 1_000 tune and 1_000 draw iterations (2_000 + 2_000 draws total) took 18 seconds.
+
Sampling 2 chains for 1_000 tune and 1_000 draw iterations (2_000 + 2_000 draws total) took 19 seconds.
 

 

 
We recommend running at least 4 chains for robust computation of convergence diagnostics
@@ -869,7 +865,7 @@ 
Sampling
 

 

 

-../_images/36c13a02689a9caca03b6530c4291f815700a434b39f1113d160603ed3b1dd56.png
+../_images/5f878726cec41a40bfdd59e593d4a2f4c5200c8c3f853bc29ab44a40699abb3f.png
 

 

 

@@ -904,7 +900,7 @@ 
Using the learned parameters
-../_images/5f8c31614bcfbf4481eecfb215d4009cdde2b9df1ac4e1743ffbf98a02924c30.png
+../_images/fa014659fce39d9e7857bc113aa2fde299c83e23f05f7a22579baa5f6eba64ac.png
 
 
 

@@ -914,7 +910,7 @@ 
Using the learned parameters
-
Array(-1106.1058, dtype=float32)
+
Array(-1106.093, dtype=float32)
 

 

 

@@ -964,7 +960,7 @@ 
Visualizing the model
-../_images/276f245ebd9fd4bcae5e926f51a69ac0c4a8b7994776641b7ca80207aba0e073.svg

+../_images/0747ca4d2db1d73075db0036fa2d7adb40e86a06d3c587c73103c1d2a5698bb6.svg

 
 
 

@@ -993,15 +989,16 @@ 
Sampling#
   self.pid = os.fork()
 
 
-

+
/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.12.3/x64/lib/python3.12/multiprocessing/popen_fork.py:66: RuntimeWarning: os.fork() was called. os.fork() is incompatible with multithreaded code, and JAX is multithreaded, so this will likely lead to a deadlock.
+  self.pid = os.fork()
+

+

+

 
 

 
Sampling 2 chains for 1_000 tune and 1_000 draw iterations (2_000 + 2_000 draws total) took 23 seconds.
 

 

-
There were 1 divergences after tuning. Increase `target_accept` or reparameterize.
-

-

 
We recommend running at least 4 chains for robust computation of convergence diagnostics
 

 

@@ -1015,7 +1012,7 @@ 
Sampling#
 

 
 

-../_images/6db6f4620a292d23f0effdbd613a7ec75c403080b6cc5f533a92d5062c71ec26.png
+../_images/d38733fb3e1c27d07624fab7644d58256a46a860d53a4a8843d8624486366b75.png
 

 
 

@@ -1049,7 +1046,7 @@ 
Using the learned parameters
-../_images/fec56c3b25907362b1252355dd1385f1eb8a04c9617d9dc9b20da45c6175a385.png
+../_images/be812af012a1978d3ca688cb36fc31f4bc1501c1d7a723f2405f4f7059cd4096.png
 
 
 

@@ -1059,7 +1056,7 @@ 
Using the learned parameters
-
Array(-1118.0265, dtype=float32)
+
Array(-1118.005, dtype=float32)
 

 

 

@@ -1087,11 +1084,11 @@ 
System configurationvar togglebuttonSelector = '.toggle, .admonition.dropdown';
     
     
-    
+    
     
     
     
@@ -888,13 +888,13 @@ 
Recovering HGF parameters from the observed behaviors
NUTS: [tonic_volatility_2]
 

 

-

+

 
 

-

+

 
 

-

+

 
 

 

@@ -937,19 +937,19 @@ 
Recovering HGF parameters from the observed behaviors
     
       tonic_volatility_2
-      -3.951
-      0.492
-      -4.899
-      -3.028
+      -3.954
+      0.501
+      -4.832
+      -2.937
       0.012
-      0.009
-      1561.0
-      2237.0
+      0.008
+      1774.0
+      2535.0
       1.0
     
   
 
-
../_images/e4a5e3c46408f0f75b0e059879a14b37d9c0c5b3be464bf65dd63789029d7f7d.png
+../_images/2a3315bceb94f95511bfd447a3273efdf90ea2d07a110b4f3908dd115c3d8c6d.png
 
 
 
The results above indicate that given the responses provided by the participant, the most likely values for the parameter \(\omega_2\) are between -4.9 and -3.1, with a mean at -3.9 (you can find slightly different values if you sample different actions from the decisions function). We can consider this as an excellent estimate given the sparsity of the data, and the complexity of the model.

@@ -988,11 +988,11 @@ 
System configuration
diff --git a/notebooks/3-Multilevel_HGF.html b/notebooks/3-Multilevel_HGF.html
index dad998628..55a142faa 100644
--- a/notebooks/3-Multilevel_HGF.html
+++ b/notebooks/3-Multilevel_HGF.html
@@ -51,7 +51,7 @@
     
     
     
-    
+    
     
     
     
@@ -707,7 +707,7 @@ 
Plot the computational graph
-../_images/98778b681271378b11083a9cc8d36729e81243b0a3b4ff84431d5fc435a8ef6b.svg
+../_images/4708f16642a2dd9022b3b79a3c3ad04c597fb77def7eeabbdc48559af45de3b8.svg
 
 
 

@@ -732,10 +732,28 @@ 
Sampling
 
NUTS: [mu_volatility, sigma_volatility, volatility, mu_temperature, sigma_temperature, inverse_temperature]
 

 

-

+

 
 

-

+

+
+

+
Sampling 2 chains for 1_000 tune and 1_000 draw iterations (2_000 + 2_000 draws total) took 69 seconds.
+

+

+
There were 1000 divergences after tuning. Increase `target_accept` or reparameterize.
+

+

+
We recommend running at least 4 chains for robust computation of convergence diagnostics
+

+

+
The rhat statistic is larger than 1.01 for some parameters. This indicates problems during sampling. See https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.08008 for details
+

+

+
The effective sample size per chain is smaller than 100 for some parameters.  A higher number is needed for reliable rhat and ess computation. See https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.08008 for details
+

+

+
 
 

 

@@ -748,7 +766,7 @@ 
Visualization of the posterior distributions
-../_images/cd4ae40aa47ba2894bb03958b9aedb50dc7ea679106fd873dfb2844c8438a68c.png
+../_images/01e6d3261f75da5122173932394594e8f801e0ede1b283eedc993599194d08ff.png
 
 
 
The reference values on both posterior distributions indicate the mean of the distribution used for simulation.

@@ -774,14 +792,14 @@ 
System configuration
diff --git a/notebooks/4-Parameter_recovery.html b/notebooks/4-Parameter_recovery.html
index 79ec15764..25d0cffad 100644
--- a/notebooks/4-Parameter_recovery.html
+++ b/notebooks/4-Parameter_recovery.html
@@ -49,7 +49,7 @@
     
     
     
-    
+    
     
     
     
@@ -664,10 +664,10 @@ 
Inference from the simulated behaviours
NUTS: [censored_volatility, inverse_temperature]
 

 
-

+

 
 

-

+
 
 

 

@@ -723,7 +723,7 @@ 
Visualizing parameters recovery
-../_images/fd032f2350ea681dfb89be3ed39cc0db4511c1b397a93b3c13de0a96472caab1.png
+../_images/2d7e7041d7eb87d2a19e5735a0f127f9a410bd252dfcf0afdae6b3a9fde9d571.png
 
 
 

@@ -748,12 +748,12 @@ 
System configurationvar togglebuttonSelector = '.toggle, .admonition.dropdown';
     
     
-    
+    
     
     
     
@@ -555,16 +555,16 @@ 
Loading and preprocessing physiological recording
Downloading ECG channel:   0%|          | 0/2 [00:00<?, ?it/s]
 

 
-
Downloading ECG channel:  50%|█████     | 1/2 [00:00<00:00,  1.18it/s]
+
Downloading ECG channel:  50%|█████     | 1/2 [00:01<00:01,  1.06s/it]
 

 

-
Downloading Respiration channel:  50%|█████     | 1/2 [00:00<00:00,  1.18it/s]
+
Downloading Respiration channel:  50%|█████     | 1/2 [00:01<00:01,  1.06s/it]
 

 

-
Downloading Respiration channel: 100%|██████████| 2/2 [00:01<00:00,  1.12it/s]
+
Downloading Respiration channel: 100%|██████████| 2/2 [00:01<00:00,  1.61it/s]
 

 

-
Downloading Respiration channel: 100%|██████████| 2/2 [00:01<00:00,  1.13it/s]
+
Downloading Respiration channel: 100%|██████████| 2/2 [00:01<00:00,  1.45it/s]
 

 

 

@@ -638,7 +638,7 @@ 
Model#<
 

 

 

-../_images/8fc9c210ab62f5dd9a3be3ce533d3c8c7ee05351b66a0f94da4f8a26be10ae39.svg

+../_images/8f02834ccc45a1fbb4bd4aabfac2d75a89a86b3ef90438ded772ac7bf43de688.svg

 

 

 

@@ -664,7 +664,7 @@ 
Model#<
   self.pid = os.fork()
 

 

-
/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.12.3/x64/lib/python3.12/multiprocessing/popen_fork.py:66: RuntimeWarning: os.fork() was called. os.fork() is incompatible with multithreaded code, and JAX is multithreaded, so this will likely lead to a deadlock.
+
/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.12.3/x64/lib/python3.12/multiprocessing/popen_fork.py:66: RuntimeWarning: os.fork() was called. os.fork() is incompatible with multithreaded code, and JAX is multithreaded, so this will likely lead to a deadlock.
   self.pid = os.fork()
 

 

@@ -687,7 +687,7 @@ 
Model#<
 

 

 

-../_images/e43fbff375c6cadc9a178a6909dc6edd05c565b9e0a5cc703c9b87c7c5ff76b8.png
+../_images/8b4761fe40abbc4eab49534359b64a1b771d330fd046cb297f760bf0d4aec020.png
 

 

 

@@ -719,7 +719,7 @@ 
Model#<
 

 

 

-../_images/b1d98fa55589310f678c20e7c4c2956fff2f458e8413d588a6c66392aee971a7.png
+../_images/eeecc1cea1a493ef0961764a53b5dd248ed99fc5c6aca89d2ffb4bff582ae5ac.png
 

 

 
@@ -744,12 +744,12 @@ 
System configuration

diff --git a/notebooks/Example_2_Input_node_volatility_coupling.html b/notebooks/Example_2_Input_node_volatility_coupling.html
index 19232282d..1ecdb648a 100644
--- a/notebooks/Example_2_Input_node_volatility_coupling.html
+++ b/notebooks/Example_2_Input_node_volatility_coupling.html
@@ -692,10 +692,10 @@ 
System configurationvar togglebuttonSelector = '.toggle, .admonition.dropdown';
     
     
-    
+    
     
     
     
@@ -1081,16 +1081,16 @@ 
Bayesian inference
NUTS: [omega]
 

 
-

+

 
 

-

+

 
 

 
Sampling 2 chains for 1_000 tune and 1_000 draw iterations (2_000 + 2_000 draws total) took 25 seconds.
 

 

-
There were 3 divergences after tuning. Increase `target_accept` or reparameterize.
+
There were 9 divergences after tuning. Increase `target_accept` or reparameterize.
 

 

 
We recommend running at least 4 chains for robust computation of convergence diagnostics
@@ -1108,7 +1108,7 @@ 
Bayesian inference
-../_images/936ebb60a229ec508b442b49bf9f177f75fa7ecc46bb0de0b9480abd948cb41d.png
+../_images/ab312f445ee2f33b25406c246cdc83ddc030830067f9d697b8bf9f3bab39d8ed.png
 

 

 
@@ -1133,14 +1133,14 @@ 
System configuration

diff --git a/notebooks/Exercise_1_Using_the_HGF.html b/notebooks/Exercise_1_Using_the_HGF.html
index 97022869f..822cbb80d 100644
--- a/notebooks/Exercise_1_Using_the_HGF.html
+++ b/notebooks/Exercise_1_Using_the_HGF.html
@@ -51,7 +51,7 @@
     
     
     
-    
+    
     
     
     
@@ -758,7 +758,7 @@ 
Parameters optimization

 

-
/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.12.3/x64/lib/python3.12/multiprocessing/popen_fork.py:66: RuntimeWarning: os.fork() was called. os.fork() is incompatible with multithreaded code, and JAX is multithreaded, so this will likely lead to a deadlock.
+
/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.12.3/x64/lib/python3.12/multiprocessing/popen_fork.py:66: RuntimeWarning: os.fork() was called. os.fork() is incompatible with multithreaded code, and JAX is multithreaded, so this will likely lead to a deadlock.
   self.pid = os.fork()
 

 

@@ -771,7 +771,7 @@ 
Parameters optimization
 

 

-../_images/cf20e82cf7efad8c56b42aa88ec317db38c0aecbd725874fc6f4e939037e7e70.png
+../_images/fc7074add4190d6dbba0e8d6ebaa7993058ed9fd59f55cff33003ae0c0b6a576.png
 

 

 

@@ -813,15 +813,15 @@ 
Parameters optimization
     
       tonic_volatility_1
-      -5.974
-      0.908
-      -7.58
-      -4.182
+      -5.954
+      0.922
+      -7.681
+      -4.288
       0.028
       0.02
-      1128.0
-      1077.0
-      1.01
+      1232.0
+      765.0
+      1.0
     
   
 
@@ -1160,11 +1160,19 @@ 
Biased random{"version_major": 2, "version_minor": 0, "model_id": "c28d917d6f664630bf0312a7d1cd3167"}
/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.12.3/x64/lib/python3.12/multiprocessing/popen_fork.py:66: RuntimeWarning: os.fork() was called. os.fork() is incompatible with multithreaded code, and JAX is multithreaded, so this will likely lead to a deadlock.
+
/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.12.3/x64/lib/python3.12/multiprocessing/popen_fork.py:66: RuntimeWarning: os.fork() was called. os.fork() is incompatible with multithreaded code, and JAX is multithreaded, so this will likely lead to a deadlock.
   self.pid = os.fork()
 

 

+

+
+

+
Sampling 4 chains for 1_000 tune and 1_000 draw iterations (4_000 + 4_000 draws total) took 35 seconds.
+

 

+
+

+

 

 

 

@@ -1173,7 +1181,7 @@ 
Biased random
-../_images/2961f8b766ae8107981c64fb51420ee634f5d9c4afcf9861dfccf440dec2cb88.png
+../_images/1d8440e8d2dbccda4d8f83ff45c4944b99658aaae4cf1cd17a3d5f050d3f0fd2.png
 

 

 
Assess model fitting, here using leave-one-out cross-validation from the Arviz library.

@@ -1188,8 +1196,8 @@ 
Biased random
Computed from 4000 posterior samples and 1.0 observations log-likelihood matrix.
 
          Estimate       SE
-elpd_loo  -222.45     0.00
-p_loo        0.71        -
+elpd_loo  -222.42     0.00
+p_loo        0.65        -
 
 There has been a warning during the calculation. Please check the results.
 ------
@@ -1298,7 +1306,7 @@ 
Rescorla-Wagner{"version_major": 2, "version_minor": 0, "model_id": "755205ed40194c7e8193f0d67e960525"}
/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.12.3/x64/lib/python3.12/multiprocessing/popen_fork.py:66: RuntimeWarning: os.fork() was called. os.fork() is incompatible with multithreaded code, and JAX is multithreaded, so this will likely lead to a deadlock.
+
/opt/hostedtoolcache/Python/3.12.3/x64/lib/python3.12/multiprocessing/popen_fork.py:66: RuntimeWarning: os.fork() was called. os.fork() is incompatible with multithreaded code, and JAX is multithreaded, so this will likely lead to a deadlock.
   self.pid = os.fork()
 

 

@@ -1311,7 +1319,7 @@ 
Rescorla-Wagner
-../_images/9507cc9bd1c654ecae2c56ea1a4394a3a12848d8e118f99dbec0363470b96622.png
+../_images/20aed8c25c051427524ef68af62cad1fb1dfa59112a736008df23479167ed877.png
 

 

 

@@ -1325,8 +1333,8 @@ 
Rescorla-Wagner
Computed from 4000 posterior samples and 1.0 observations log-likelihood matrix.
 
          Estimate       SE
-elpd_loo  -103.81     0.00
-p_loo        0.58        -
+elpd_loo  -103.83     0.00
+p_loo        0.60        -
 
 There has been a warning during the calculation. Please check the results.
 ------
@@ -1382,7 +1390,7 @@ 
Rescorla-Wagner
-../_images/05c6bc13e1b0ddd904075fc5039f0199274a997ea06ae05a4750754dcd2ce6f1.png
+../_images/3196790868bd68409526f9b44b04f37b5ef45d1ac49b25709797b8f4f963da2e.png
 

 

 
@@ -1446,19 +1454,19 @@ 
Two-level HGF
NUTS: [tonic_volatility_2]
 

 

-

+

 
 

-

+

 
 

-

+

 
 

-

+

 
 

-
Sampling 4 chains for 1_000 tune and 1_000 draw iterations (4_000 + 4_000 draws total) took 35 seconds.
+
Sampling 4 chains for 1_000 tune and 1_000 draw iterations (4_000 + 4_000 draws total) took 32 seconds.
 

 

 
@@ -1472,7 +1480,7 @@ 
Two-level HGF
-../_images/0dcc76894775299d36c4cf83ff986eebcfb13c3d302dc2154d53cd48857d4709.png
+../_images/b0338a780119e94999fa182f5a7e27a32469b58f9ec22155784e58cb14238ccb.png
 

 

 

@@ -1486,8 +1494,8 @@ 
Two-level HGF
Computed from 4000 posterior samples and 1.0 observations log-likelihood matrix.
 
          Estimate       SE
-elpd_loo  -114.35     0.00
-p_loo        1.04        -
+elpd_loo  -114.19     0.00
+p_loo        0.89        -
 
 There has been a warning during the calculation. Please check the results.
 ------
@@ -1496,8 +1504,8 @@ 
Two-level HGF
NUTS: [tonic_volatility_2]
 

 

-

+

 
 

-

+

 
 

-

+

 
 

-

+

 
 

-
Sampling 4 chains for 1_000 tune and 1_000 draw iterations (4_000 + 4_000 draws total) took 39 seconds.
+
Sampling 4 chains for 1_000 tune and 1_000 draw iterations (4_000 + 4_000 draws total) took 38 seconds.
 

 

 
 

-
There were 25 divergences after tuning. Increase `target_accept` or reparameterize.
+
There were 7 divergences after tuning. Increase `target_accept` or reparameterize.
 

 

 

@@ -1596,7 +1604,7 @@ 
Three-level HGF
-../_images/41b3cabc220bae661b1741aaf01fcb506ca896a1b3ea88ee99ede87abeb98e6d.png
+../_images/a134019a380878644b7d8b1a12a2d3cccc4ee9f3ba023a6e9a4c838a8f96f63b.png
 

 

 

@@ -1610,8 +1618,8 @@ 
Three-level HGF
Computed from 4000 posterior samples and 1.0 observations log-likelihood matrix.
 
          Estimate       SE
-elpd_loo  -114.01     0.00
-p_loo        1.05        -
+elpd_loo  -113.97     0.00
+p_loo        1.01        -
 
 There has been a warning during the calculation. Please check the results.
 ------
@@ -1620,8 +1628,8 @@ 
Three-level HGF
-../_images/725ab1edee9c0b9a86e45713f2735ab6c551a4afd13330a959f3a02c1962ec10.png
+../_images/71bfd07a623c863a6c4f4b7ad23791fb24a0777368a0f98ed050fc05708be5b7.png
 

 

 
@@ -1827,14 +1835,14 @@ 
System configuration