Worksheet(s) in the FABLE Calculator:
⇒ LAND
⇒ 4_calc_land
Our main indicator related to land is the evolution of the area of each land cover type (Figure 10). It shows the feasible area in each land cover class (cf. Land) and the historical data. FAOSTAT is used as the default reference. The objective is to mimic the historical evolution of land as closely as possible. Discrepancies highlight some potential problems in the FABLE Calculator. Such problems are for instance related to the evolution of the different demand components. Currently, the FABLE Calculator only includes a limited set of products in the animal feed requirements (i.e. the feed demand for some products is not represented, leading to an underestimation of the total demand for these products). For human demand and trade, estimates should be very close to the FAO values as historical data has been used to initialize key parameters (cf. Human demand, Trade). Another known problem is related to the non-food demand and, in particular, the biofuels demand. In fact, during the processing of oilseeds or corn to produce biodiesel or bioethanol, some by-products are produced. These could be used in animal feed, potentially substituting other crops and feedstock. This only leads to significant bias on historical land-use estimates in countries where ambitious biofuel targets were put in place during the period 2000-2010.
Two other figures are displayed in the LAND worksheet: land use change by 5 year-time step and the historical, targeted, and feasible harvested area and the historical, targeted, and feasible production quantity by crop.