diff --git a/src/libraries/TierCalculationLib.sol b/src/libraries/TierCalculationLib.sol
index c3f2b7c..79eb3d2 100644
--- a/src/libraries/TierCalculationLib.sol
+++ b/src/libraries/TierCalculationLib.sol
@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ library TierCalculationLib {
     int8 oneMinusNumTiers = 1 - int8(_numberOfTiers);
     return
       sd(1).div(sd(int24(_grandPrizePeriod))).pow(
-        sd(int8(_tier) + oneMinusNumTiers).div(sd(oneMinusNumTiers))
+        sd(int8(_tier) + oneMinusNumTiers).div(sd(oneMinusNumTiers)).sqrt()
       );
   }
 
diff --git a/test/abstract/TieredLiquidityDistributor.t.sol b/test/abstract/TieredLiquidityDistributor.t.sol
index 0729f28..30c74c5 100644
--- a/test/abstract/TieredLiquidityDistributor.t.sol
+++ b/test/abstract/TieredLiquidityDistributor.t.sol
@@ -402,12 +402,12 @@ contract TieredLiquidityDistributorTest is Test {
   function testEstimatedPrizeCount_allTiers() public {
     assertEq(distributor.estimatedPrizeCount(4), 20, "num tiers 4");
     assertEq(distributor.estimatedPrizeCount(5), 80, "num tiers 5");
-    assertEq(distributor.estimatedPrizeCount(6), 322, "num tiers 6");
-    assertEq(distributor.estimatedPrizeCount(7), 1294, "num tiers 7");
-    assertEq(distributor.estimatedPrizeCount(8), 5204, "num tiers 8");
-    assertEq(distributor.estimatedPrizeCount(9), 20901, "num tiers 9");
-    assertEq(distributor.estimatedPrizeCount(10), 83894, "num tiers 10");
-    assertEq(distributor.estimatedPrizeCount(11), 336579, "num tiers 11");
+    assertEq(distributor.estimatedPrizeCount(6), 320, "num tiers 6");
+    assertEq(distributor.estimatedPrizeCount(7), 1283, "num tiers 7");
+    assertEq(distributor.estimatedPrizeCount(8), 5139, "num tiers 8");
+    assertEq(distributor.estimatedPrizeCount(9), 20580, "num tiers 9");
+    assertEq(distributor.estimatedPrizeCount(10), 82408, "num tiers 10");
+    assertEq(distributor.estimatedPrizeCount(11), 329958, "num tiers 11");
     assertEq(distributor.estimatedPrizeCount(12), 0, "num tiers 12");
   }
 
@@ -415,14 +415,14 @@ contract TieredLiquidityDistributorTest is Test {
     // 16 canary 1 daily + 64 canary 2 daily = 80
     assertEq(distributor.sumTierPrizeCounts(5), 80, "num tiers 5");
     // 64 + 256 = ~320
-    assertEq(distributor.sumTierPrizeCounts(6), 322, "num tiers 6");
+    assertEq(distributor.sumTierPrizeCounts(6), 320, "num tiers 6");
     // 256 + 1024 = ~1280
-    assertEq(distributor.sumTierPrizeCounts(7), 1294, "num tiers 7");
+    assertEq(distributor.sumTierPrizeCounts(7), 1283, "num tiers 7");
     // 1024 + 4096 = ~5120 (plus a few prizes from non-daily tiers)
-    assertEq(distributor.sumTierPrizeCounts(8), 5204, "num tiers 8");
-    assertEq(distributor.sumTierPrizeCounts(9), 20901, "num tiers 9");
-    assertEq(distributor.sumTierPrizeCounts(10), 83894, "num tiers 10");
-    assertEq(distributor.sumTierPrizeCounts(11), 336579, "num tiers 11");
+    assertEq(distributor.sumTierPrizeCounts(8), 5139, "num tiers 8");
+    assertEq(distributor.sumTierPrizeCounts(9), 20580, "num tiers 9");
+    assertEq(distributor.sumTierPrizeCounts(10), 82408, "num tiers 10");
+    assertEq(distributor.sumTierPrizeCounts(11), 329958, "num tiers 11");
     assertEq(distributor.sumTierPrizeCounts(12), 0, "num tiers 12");
   }
 
diff --git a/test/libraries/TierCalculationLib.t.sol b/test/libraries/TierCalculationLib.t.sol
index 5be6596..24f9e95 100644
--- a/test/libraries/TierCalculationLib.t.sol
+++ b/test/libraries/TierCalculationLib.t.sol
@@ -25,8 +25,8 @@ contract TierCalculationLibTest is Test {
 
   function testGetTierOdds_tier4() public {
     assertEq(unwrap(wrapper.getTierOdds(0, 4, 365)), 2739726027397260);
-    assertEq(unwrap(wrapper.getTierOdds(1, 4, 365)), 19579642462506911);
-    assertEq(unwrap(wrapper.getTierOdds(2, 4, 365)), 139927275620255364);
+    assertEq(unwrap(wrapper.getTierOdds(1, 4, 365)), 8089033552608040);
+    assertEq(unwrap(wrapper.getTierOdds(2, 4, 365)), 33163436331078433);
     assertEq(unwrap(wrapper.getTierOdds(3, 4, 365)), 1e18);
   }
 
@@ -37,11 +37,11 @@ contract TierCalculationLibTest is Test {
     );
     assertEq(
       TierCalculationLib.estimatePrizeFrequencyInDraws(TierCalculationLib.getTierOdds(1, 4, 365)),
-      52
+      124
     );
     assertEq(
       TierCalculationLib.estimatePrizeFrequencyInDraws(TierCalculationLib.getTierOdds(2, 4, 365)),
-      8
+      31
     );
     assertEq(
       TierCalculationLib.estimatePrizeFrequencyInDraws(TierCalculationLib.getTierOdds(3, 4, 365)),