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Generalized Linear Models

In ordinary least squares, we assume that the errors ({ { \epsilon }{i} }{i=1}^{n}) are i.i.d. Gaussian, i.e. ${ {\epsilon}_{i}} \stackrel{i.i.d}{\sim} N(0,1)$ for $i\in{1,2, \cdots, n}$. It is not necessary to assume that they are in Gaussian distribution. In statistics, the generalized linear model (GLM) is a flexible generalization of ordinary linear regression that allows for response variables that have error distribution models other than a normal distribution. The GLM generalizes linear regression by allowing the linear model to be related to the response variable via a link function and by allowing the magnitude of the variance of each measurement to be a function of its predicted value.

Intuition

Ordinary linear regression predicts the expected value of a given unknown quantity (the response variable, a random variable) as a linear combination of a set of observed values (predictors). This implies that a constant change in a predictor leads to a constant change in the response variable (i.e. a linear-response model). This is appropriate when the response variable has a normal distribution (intuitively, when a response variable can vary essentially indefinitely in either direction with no fixed "zero value", or more generally for any quantity that only varies by a relatively small amount, e.g. human heights).

However, these assumptions are inappropriate for some types of response variables. For example, in cases where the response variable is expected to be always positive and varying over a wide range, constant input changes lead to geometrically varying, rather than constantly varying, output changes. As an example, a prediction model might predict that 10 degree temperature decrease would lead to 1,000 fewer people visiting the beach is unlikely to generalize well over both small beaches (e.g. those where the expected attendance was 50 at a particular temperature) and large beaches (e.g. those where the expected attendance was 10,000 at a low temperature). The problem with this kind of prediction model would imply a temperature drop of 10 degrees would lead to 1,000 fewer people visiting the beach, a beach whose expected attendance was 50 at a higher temperature would now be predicted to have the impossible attendance value of −950. Logically, a more realistic model would instead predict a constant rate of increased beach attendance (e.g. an increase in 10 degrees leads to a doubling in beach attendance, and a drop in 10 degrees leads to a halving in attendance). Such a model is termed an exponential-response model (or log-linear model, since the logarithm of the response is predicted to vary linearly).

Model components

In a generalized linear model (GLM), each outcome $\mathrm{Y}$ of the dependent variables is assumed to be generated from a particular distribution in the exponential family, a large range of probability distributions that includes the normal, binomial, Poisson and gamma distributions, among others. The mean, $\mu$, of the distribution depends on the independent variables, $X$, through: $$ \mathbb{E}(Y)=\mu=g^{-1}(X^{T}\beta) $$ where $\mathbb{E}(Y)$ is the expected value of $\mathrm{Y}$; $X^{T}\beta$ is the linear predictor, a linear combination of unknown parameters $\beta$; ${g}$ is the link function and $g^{-1}$ is the inverse function of $g$.

The GLM consists of three elements:

Model components
1. A probability distribution from the exponential family.
2. A linear predictor $\eta = X^{T}\beta$.
3. A link function $g$ such that $\mathbb{E}(Y) = \mu = g^{−1}(\eta)$.

Exponential Families

An exponential family distribution has the following form $$ p(x|\eta)=h(x) \exp(\eta^{T}t(x) - a(\eta)) $$ where

  • a parameter vector $\eta$ is often referred to as the canonical or natural parameter;
  • the statistic $t(X)$ is referred to as a sufficient statistic;
  • the underlying measure $h(x)$ is a counting measure or Lebesgue measure;
  • the log normalizer $a(\eta)=\log \int h(x) \exp(\eta^{T}t(x)) \mathrm{d}x$

For example, a Bernoulli random variable ${X}$, which assigns probability measure $\pi$ to the point $x = 1$ and probability measure $1 − \pi$ to $x = 0$, can be rewritten in

$$ p(x|\eta) = {\pi}^{x}(1-\pi)^{1-x}\ = {\frac{\pi}{1-\pi}}^{x} (1-\pi)\ = \exp{\log(\frac{\pi}{1-\pi})x+\log (1-\pi)} $$ so that $\eta=\log(\frac{\pi}{1-\pi})$.

The Poisson distribution can be written in $$ p(x|\lambda) =\frac{{\lambda}^{x}e^{-\lambda}}{x!} \ = \frac{1}{x!}exp{x\log(\lambda)-\lambda} $$ for $x={0,1,2,\dots}$, such that

--- ---
$\eta=\log(\lambda)$ $t(X)=X$
$h(x)=\frac{1}{x!}$ $a(\eta)=\lambda=\exp(\eta)$.

The multinomial distribution can be written in $$ p(x|\pi) =\frac{M!}{{x}{1}!{x}{2}!\cdots {x}{K}!}{\pi}{1}^{x_1}{\pi}{2}^{x_2}\cdots {\pi}{K}^{x_K} \ = \frac{M!}{{x}{1}!{x}{2}!\cdots {x}{K}!}\exp{\sum{i=1}^{K}x_i\log(\pi_i)} \ = \frac{M!}{{x}{1}!{x}{2}!\cdots {x}{K}!}\exp{\sum{i=1}^{K-1}x_i\log(\pi_i)+(M-\sum_{i=1}^{K-1}x_i) \log(1-\sum_{i=1}^{K-1} \pi_i)} \ = \frac{M!}{{x}{1}!{x}{2}!\cdots {x}{K}!}\exp{\sum{i=1}^{K-1}x_i\log(\frac{\pi_i}{1-\sum_{i=1}^{K-1} \pi_i}) + M \log(1-\sum_{i=1}^{K-1} \pi_i)} $$

where $\sum_{i=1}^{K}x_i=M$ and $\sum_{i=1}^{K} \pi_i = 1$, such that

  • $\eta_k =\log(\frac{\pi_k}{1-\sum_{i=1}^{K-1} \pi_i})=\log(\frac{\pi_k}{\pi_K})$ then $\pi_k = \frac{e^{\eta_k}}{\sum_{k=1}^{K}e^{\eta_k}}$ for $k\in{1,2,\dots, K}$ with $\eta_K = 0$;
  • $t(X)=X=(X_1, X_2, \dots, X_{K-1})$;
  • $h(x)=\frac{M!}{{x}{1}!{x}{2}!\cdots {x}_{K}!}$;
  • $a(\eta)=-M \log(1-\sum_{i=1}^{K-1} \pi_i)=-M \log(\pi_K)$.

Note that $\eta_K = 0$ then $\pi_K = \frac{e^{\eta_K}}{\sum_{k=1}^{K}e^{\eta_k}} = \frac{1}{\sum_{k=1}^{K}e^{\eta_k}}$ and $a(\eta)=-M\log(\pi_K)=M\log(\sum_{k=1}^{K}e^{\eta_k})$.

Logistic Regression

Logistic Regression
1. A Bernoulli random variable $Y$ is from the exponential family.
2. A linear predictor $\eta = \log(\frac{\pi}{1-\pi}) = X^{T}\beta$.
3. A link function $g$ such that $\mathbb{E}(Y) = \pi = g^{−1}(\eta)$, where $g^{-1}=\frac{1}{1+e^{-\eta}}$.

The logistic distribution: $$ \pi\stackrel{\triangle}=P(Y=1|X=x)=\frac{1}{1+e^{-x^{T}\beta}}=\frac{e^{x^{T}\beta}}{1+e^{x^{T}\beta}} $$

where $w$ is the parameter vector. Thus, we can obtain: $$ \log\frac{P(Y=1|X=x)}{P(Y = 0|X=x)} = x^{T}\beta, $$

i.e. $\log\frac{\pi}{1-\pi}=x^{T}\beta$ and $\log\frac{\pi}{1-\pi}$ is called as logistic (or logit) transformation,

where $\pi\in (0,1)$ and $x\in \mathbb{R}^{d+1}$ is an $(d + 1)$ - dimensional vector consisting of $d$ independent variables concatenated to a vector of ones in theory.

How we can do estimate the parameters $\beta$ ? Because logistic regression predicts probabilities, rather than just classes, we can fit it using likelihood. The likelihood function for logistic regression is $$ L(\beta) ={\prod}{i=1}^{n}{\pi}^{y_i}(1-\pi)^{1-y_i} \ ={\prod}{i=1}^{n}(\frac{\pi}{1-\pi})^{y_i}(1-\pi) \ = {\prod}_{i=1}^{n} {\exp(x_i^{T}\beta)}^{y_i}\frac{1}{1 + \exp({x_i^{T}\beta})}. $$

The log-likelihood turns products into sums $$ \ell(\beta) ={\sum}{i=1}^{n}{y}{i}\log(\pi)+(1-{y}i)\log(1-\pi) \ = {\sum}{i=1}^{n}{y}{i}\log(\frac{\pi}{1-\pi})+\log(1-\pi) \ = {\sum}{i=1}^{n}{y}_{i}(x_i^T\beta)-\log(1+\exp(x_i^T\beta)) $$

where ${(x_i,y_i)}_{i=1}^{n}$ is the input data set and $\eta$ is the parameter to learn. We want to find the MLE of $\beta$, i.e.

$$ \hat{\beta} = \arg\max_{\beta} L(\beta)=\arg\max_{\beta} \ell(\beta) \ = \arg\max_{\beta} {\sum}{i=1}^{n}{y}{i}(x_i^T\beta)-\log(1+\exp(x_i^T\beta)) $$

which we can solve this optimization by numerical optimization methods such as Newton's method.

$$\arg\max_{\beta} L(\beta)={\sum}{i=1}^{n}{y}{i}\log(\pi)+(1-{y}_i)\log(1-\pi) $$

Poisson Regression

Poisson regression assumes the response variable ${Y}$ has a Poisson distribution, and assumes the logarithm of its expected value can be modeled by a linear combination of unknown parameters. A Poisson regression model is sometimes known as a log-linear model, especially when used to model contingency tables.

Poisson Regression
1. A Poisson random variable $Y$ is from the exponential family.
2. A linear predictor $\eta = \log(\lambda) = X^{T}\beta$.
3. A link function $g$ such that $\mathbb{E}(Y) = \lambda = g^{−1}(\eta)$, where $g^{-1}(\eta) = \exp(\eta)$.

Thus we obtain that $\mathbb{E}(Y) = \lambda = g^{−1}(\eta) = \exp({x^{T}\beta})$, $x\in \mathbb{R}^{d+1}$ is an $(d + 1)$ - dimensional vector consisting of $d$ independent variables concatenated to a vector of ones. The likelihood function in terms of $\beta$ is $$ L(\beta|X, Y) = {\prod}{i=1}^{n}\frac{\lambda^{y_i}e^{-\lambda}}{y_i!} \ = {\prod}{i=1}^{n} \frac{\exp(y_i x_i^T\beta)\exp[-\exp(x_i^T\beta)]}{y_i!}. $$ The log-likelihood is

$$ \ell(\beta|X, Y) = {\sum}{i=1}^{n}[y_i x_i^T\beta -\exp(x_i^T\beta)-\log(y_i!)] \ \propto {\sum}{i=1}^{n} [y_i x_i^T\beta -\exp(x_i^T\beta)]. $$

The negative log-likelihood function $-\ell(\beta|X, Y)$ is convex so that we can apply standard convex optimization techniques such as gradient descent to find the optimal value of $\beta$.

Softmax Logistic Regression

Softmax Regression
1. A multinomial random variable $Y=(Y_1, Y_2, \dots, Y_{K})^{T}$ is from the exponential family.
2. A linear predictor ${\eta}_k = \log(\frac{{\pi}_k}{{\pi}_K}) = X^{T}{\beta}_k$.
3. A link function $g$ such that $\mathbb{E}(Y_k) = {\pi}k = \frac{e^{\eta_k}}{\sum{j=1}^{K}e^{\eta_j}}$.

The log-likelihood in terms of $\beta = (\beta_1,\dots,\beta_K)^{T}$ is $$ \ell(\beta|X, Y) = {\sum}{i=1}^{n} {\sum}{k=1}^{K} y_k^{(i)}\log(\pi_k) \ = {\sum}{i=1}^{n} [{\sum}{k=1}^{K-1} y_k^{(i)}\log(\pi_k) + y_K\log(\pi_K)] \ = {\sum}{i=1}^{n} [{\sum}{k=1}^{K-1} y_k^{(i)}\log(\pi_k) + (1-{\sum}_{k=1}^{K-1} y_k))\log(\pi_K)]. $$

Fractional Regression

If you had a binary outcome (i.e. just zeros and ones), this is just a special case, so the same model would be applicable. Alternatively, if all the target variable values lie between zero and one, beta regression is a natural choice for which to model such data.

Robust Regression

Generalized linear models extend the distribution of outputs so that the loss function(the likelihood function or log-likelihood function).

It is supposed that there is a link function ${g}$ such that $\mathbb{E}(Y) = \pi = g^{−1}(\eta)$. However, why is it the expectation $\mathbb{E}(Y)$ rather than others?

Robust regression can be used in any situation in which you would use least squares regression. When fitting a least squares regression, we might find some outliers or high leverage data points. We have decided that these data points are not data entry errors, neither they are from a different population than most of our data. So we have no compelling reason to exclude them from the analysis. Robust regression might be a good strategy since it is a compromise between excluding these points entirely from the analysis and including all the data points and treating all them equally in OLS regression. The idea of robust regression is to weigh the observations differently based on how well behaved these observations are. Roughly speaking, it is a form of weighted and reweighted least squares regression. Draw form[https://stats.idre.ucla.edu/r/dae/robust-regression/].

For our first robust regression method, suppose we have a data set of size n such that

$$ y_i = \left<w,x_i\right> + \epsilon_i\\ \to {\epsilon}_i = y_i - \left<w,x_i\right>. $$

where $i=1,\dots,n$. Here we have rewritten the error term as ${\epsilon}_i(\beta)$ to reflect the error term's dependency on the regression coefficients

M-estimators are given by $$ \hat{\beta}M=\arg\min{\beta}{\sum}_{i}\rho({\epsilon}_i) $$ where ${\epsilon}_i$, residual, is the difference between the predicted value (based on the regression equation) and the actual, observed value. Please note that the regression equation is usually linear such as $\left&lt;w, x\right&gt;$. And error term as ${\epsilon}_i(\beta)$ is to reflect the error term's dependency on the regression coefficients $\beta$ and function $\rho(\cdot)$ is chosen which is acting on the residuals.

The M stands for "maximum likelihood" since $\rho(\cdot)$ is related to the likelihood function for a suitable assumed residual distribution. Notice that, if assuming normality, then $\rho(z)=\frac{1}{2}z^2$ results in the ordinary least squares estimate. A reasonable $\rho$ should have the following properties

  • Nonnegative, $\rho(e)\geq 0 ,,\forall e$;
  • Equal to zero when its argument is zero, $\rho(0)=0$;
  • Symmetric, $\rho(e)=\rho(-e)$;
  • Monotone in $|e|$, $\rho(e_1)\geq \rho(e_2)$ if $|e_1|&gt;|e_2|$.

For example, $\rho$ can be absolute value function.

|Method|Loss function| |:---|:---:|---:| |Least-Squares|$\rho_{LS}(e)=e^2$| |Huber | Huber function |Bisquare|mathworld| |Winsorizing|Wiki page|

Three common functions chosen in M-estimation are given in Robust Regression Methods.

And it is really close to supervised machine learning.

Another application of design loss function is in feature selection or regularization such as LASSO, SCAD.

Spline Regression

The smoothing spline is one of the most popular curve-fitting methods, partly because of empirical evidence supporting its effectiveness and partly because of its elegant mathematical formulation. However, there are two obstacles that restrict the use of the smoothing spline in practical statistical work. Firstly, it becomes computationally prohibitive for large data sets because the number of basis functions roughly equals the sample size. Secondly, its global smoothing parameter can only provide a constant amount of smoothing, which often results in poor performances when estimating inhomogeneous functions. In this work, we introduce a class of adaptive smoothing spline models that is derived by solving certain stochastic differential equations with finite element methods. The solution extends the smoothing parameter to a continuous data-driven function, which is able to capture the change of the smoothness of the underlying process. The new model is Markovian, which makes Bayesian computation fast. A simulation study and real data example are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

Multivariate adaptive regression is a stepwise procedure for the automatic selection of basis functions from observed data The selected basis functions $B_m(x)$ yield models of the form $$f_M(x, \theta)=\sum_{m=1}^{M}\theta_m B_m(x)$$ for $x$ in $\mathbb R^n$. These models are fit to observed data $(x_i, y_i )_{i=1}^{N}$.

Bayesian Adaptive Regression Splines

BARS (Bayesian Adaptive Regression Splines) solves the generalized nonparametric regression (curve-fitting) problem:

$$Y_i \sim P(y\mid \theta_i, \varsigma)$$ $$\theta_i=f(x_i)$$

by assuming the function $f(x)$ may be approximated by a spline. Here, for example, the data $Y_i$ may be binary, or counts, and the explanatory variable $x$ may be time. The special cases in which the data are continuous pose the usual curve-fitting problem, ordinarily solved by some variation on least-squares.

Smoothing Splines

Given samples $(x_i, y_i), i = 1, \cdots, n$, we can consider estimating the regression function $r(x) = E(Y |X = x)$ by fitting a kth order spline with knots at some prespecified locations $t_1 &lt; t_2 &lt;\cdots &lt; t_m$. We want the function ${f}$ in the model $Y = f(X) + \epsilon$ where $f$ is the spline function. The coefficients of the spline functions are just estimated by least squares: $$\sum_{i=1}^{n}[y_i - f(x_i)]^2.$$

The regularization technique can be applied to control the model complexity $$\sum_{i=1}^{n}[y_i - f(x_i)]^2 + \lambda\int {f^{\prime\prime}(t)}^2\mathrm{d}t$$ where $\lambda$ is a fixed smoothing parameter. It is different from LASSSO or ridge regression that we constrain the smoothness of the function rather than the norm of coefficients.

It can date back to spline interpolation in computational or numerical analysis. There may be some points such as $(x_1, y_1)$ and $(x_2, y_2)$ that $x_1=x_2$ while $y_1\not= y_2$ in smoothing splines. And it is also different from ploynomial regression: $$Y = \beta_0 +\beta_1 X +\beta_2 X^2+\cdots+\beta_h X^{h}+\epsilon$$ where ${h}$ is called the degree of the polynomial.

https://freakonometrics.hypotheses.org/47681

Generalized Additive Model

In the regression setting, a generalized additive model has the form $$\mathbb{E}(Y\mid X_1, X_2,\cdots, X_N)=\alpha + f_1(X_1)+ f_2(X_2)+\cdots+f_N(X_n).$$ As usual $X_1,X_2, \cdots ,X_p$ represent predictors and ${Y}$ is the outcome; the $f_j$ ’s are unspecified smooth (“nonparametric”) functions.

Projection pursuit regression

There is a section of projection pursuit and neural networks in Element of Statistical Learning. Assume we have an input vector ${X}$ with ${p}$ components, and a target ${Y}$, the projection pursuit regression (PPR) model has the form:

$$ f(X) = \sum_{m=1}^{M} g_m ( \left<\omega_m, X \right>) $$

where each parameter $\omega_m$ is unit ${p}$-vectors. The functions ${g_m}$ are unspecified and is called projection indices.

The function $g_m ( \left&lt;\omega_m, X \right&gt;)$ is called a ridge function in $\mathbb{R}^p$. It varies only in the direction defined by the vector $\omega_m$. The scalar variable $V_m = \left&lt;\omega_m, X \right&gt;$ is the projection of ${X}$ onto the unit vector $\omega_m$, and we seek $\omega_m$ so that the model fits well, hence the name "projection pursuit".

The $M = 1$ model is known as the single index model in econometrics.

We seek the approximate minimizers of the error function $$ \sum_{n=1}^{N}[y_n - \sum_{m=1}^{M} g_m ( \left<\omega_m, x_i \right>)]^2 $$

over functions $g_m$ and direction vectors $\omega_m, m = 1, 2,\dots ,M$, which is different from other algorithms in statistics.

And there is a PHD thesis Design and choice of projection indices in 1992.

Nonparametric Regression

In generalized linear model, the response $Y$ is specified its distribution family. In linear or generalized linear model, we must specify the distribution family of output or error such as Gaussian distribution in linear regression or Poisson distribution in Poisson regression. It is not required to specify the distribution of the error as in ordinary linear regression.

The assumption for the straight-line model is:

  1. Our straight-line model is $$ Y_i = \alpha + \beta x_i + e_i, i=1,2,\dots, n $$ where distinct $x_i$ is known observed constants and $\alpha$ and $\beta$ are unknown parameters to estimate.

  2. The random variables $e_i$ are random sample from a continuous population that has median 0.

Then we would make a null hypothesis $$H_0: \beta = \beta_0$$

and Theil construct a statistics ${C}$: $$ C = \sum_{i=1}^{n-1}\sum_{j=i+1}^{n} c(D_j-D_i) $$

where $D_i = Y_i -\beta_0 x_i$, $x_1&lt;x_2\cdots &lt;x_n$, and $$ c(a)= \begin{cases} 1, & \text{if $a&gt;0$} \ 0, & \text{if $a=0$} \ -1, & \text{if $a&lt;0$} \end{cases}. $$

For different alternative hypothesis, we can test it via comparing with the p-values.

Bayesian Nonparametric Models

Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach is to fit a single model that can adapt its complexity to the data. Furthermore, BNP models allow the complexity to grow as more data are observed, such as when using a model to perform prediction.

Please remind the Bayesian formula: $$ P(A|B)=\frac{P(B|A)P(A)}{P(B)}\ P(A|B)\propto P(B|A)P(A) $$

and in Bayesian everything can be measured in the belief degree in $[0, 1]$.

Each model expresses a generative process of the data that includes hidden variables. This process articulates the statistical assumptions that the model makes, and also specifies the joint probability distribution of the hidden and observed random variables. Given an observed data set, data analysis is performed by posterior inference, computing the conditional distribution of the hidden variables given the observed data.

InterpretML