The following is the odds and profitability of betting on Superbowl LVII with Caesars given they allows squares betting.
What squares to bet on given the expected chance of that square manifesting, and the given odds from Caesars. If the expected chance of that square happening is 1%, and Caesars believes it'll only happen 0.2%, then we have a 500% edge and should take that bet.
The following are the final square scores provided by Caesars that are profitable to bet on.
Odds:
0,0) Odds given: 3500, Projected odds: 3234.7408829174665
7,7) Odds given: 5000, Projected odds: 3710.0877192982457
1,7) Odds given: 6500, Projected odds: 5125.263157894737
4,4) Odds given: 8000, Projected odds: 5398.101265822785
4,3) Odds given: 9000, Projected odds: 6382.835820895522
1,0) Odds given: 7500, Projected odds: 6673.489278752437
6,7) Odds given: 8000, Projected odds: 7404.9676025917925
8,7) Odds given: 10000, Projected odds: 9552.222222222223
7,5) Odds given: 15000, Projected odds: 13316.216216216215
Total bet per round: $20.702075833388577
Gathering 10,000,000 scores...
0/10,000,000
1,000,000/10,000,000
2,000,000/10,000,000
3,000,000/10,000,000
4,000,000/10,000,000
5,000,000/10,000,000
6,000,000/10,000,000
7,000,000/10,000,000
8,000,000/10,000,000
9,000,000/10,000,000
--- Results ---
Total bets made: $207020758.36777946
Total money won: $257006105.7165552
Average bets per game: $20.702075836777947
Average wins per game: $25.70061057165552
Profitbility %: 24.145089479372437%
Average win: $171.1800323013411
% runs profitable: 15.013789999999998%
So overall, there's a 15.01% chance you make 8.3x profit, which puts it as 24% profit per game on average. It's a profitable strategy, and the variance is relatively low compared to betting on exact scores.
Below is a weighted bet amount per odds where you bet more if there's a greater discrepancy between expected odds and odds provided by the sportsbook.
Amount you should bet on certain squares.
Base amount: $1
|Kansas City Chiefs| 0 |and| |Philadelphia Eagles| 0): $1.2652591170825336
|Kansas City Chiefs| 7 |and| |Philadelphia Eagles| 7): $2.2899122807017545
|Kansas City Chiefs| 1 |and| |Philadelphia Eagles| 7): $2.3747368421052633
|Kansas City Chiefs| 4 |and| |Philadelphia Eagles| 4): $3.6018987341772153
|Kansas City Chiefs| 4 |and| |Philadelphia Eagles| 3): $3.6171641791044777
|Kansas City Chiefs| 1 |and| |Philadelphia Eagles| 0): $1.8265107212475633
|Kansas City Chiefs| 6 |and| |Philadelphia Eagles| 7): $1.5950323974082075
|Kansas City Chiefs| 8 |and| |Philadelphia Eagles| 7): $1.4477777777777774
|Kansas City Chiefs| 7 |and| |Philadelphia Eagles| 5): $2.683783783783785