Dacon Mission 9 펀다 상점 매출 예측 경진대회, 2019.7.11 ~ 2019.8.30
- facebook prophet
- negative data 제거
- sampling
- trend
- keras
- negative data 제거
- sampling
- seq2seq
- statsmodels ARIMA
- negative data 제거
- sampling
using |
option |
Score |
arima |
1.0 |
1,599,452 |
arima |
1.3 |
1,220,402 |
arima |
1.5 |
1,086,564 |
using |
option |
Score |
arima |
1.65 |
1,080,924 |
arima |
1.8 |
1,130,274 |
2주6개 예측합
using |
option |
Score |
prophet |
2W6P, CPS0.05, pos |
985,656 |
prophet |
2W6P, CPS0.5, pos |
943,433 |
prophet |
2W6P, CPS0.05, zero |
950,163 |
지수함수로 감소, 상하한값 두고 logistic regression
using |
option |
Score |
prophet |
2W6P, CPS0.05exp, logistic |
927,546 |
prophet |
2W6P, CPS0.5exp, logistic |
1,002,118 |
MAE기반 피팅 평가함수를 두고 피팅 잘안된경우 CPS 증가
using |
option |
Score |
prophet |
2W6P, CPS1to0.5, logistic |
911,445 |
prophet |
2W6P, CPS10to1, logistic |
928,103 |
xgboost: MAE기반 평가함수를 사용. param의 경우 거래일 비율을 각 결과값에 곱해줌. MAPE기반 평가함수 사용.
using |
option |
Score |
xgboost |
mae, log, pos |
840,476 |
xgboost |
mae, log, pos, param |
850,727 |
xgboost |
mape, log, pos |
838,562 |