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11-3_example2.qmd
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11-3_example2.qmd
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---
editor:
mode: source
---
### Example 2 {.unnumbered}
The second example is a fishing mortality and landings quota projection for Gulf of Maine haddock with a PStar analysis in 2018. The time horizon is 2014-2020. The fishery is comprised of one fleet. This is PStar projection analysis with 1000 bootstraps and 10 simulations per bootstrap based on an ASAP stock assessment analysis. The model output shows that total allowable catch amounts in 2018 to produce probabilities of overfishing of 10%, 20%, 30%, 40% and 50% at the overfishing level ofF=0.35. The total allowable catches to produce overfishing probabilities of 10%, 20%, 30%, 40% and 50% are calculated to be 1780, 1998, 2176, 2332, and 2497 mt, respectively. The model output includes a stock summary of numbers at age and also outputs a percentile analysis for key outputs at the 90th percentile.
Running example 2 produces the following output:
```default
AGEPRO VERSION 4.2
GoM haddock ASAP_final (1977-2011 recruitment)
Date & Time of Run: 29 Dec 2017 14:19
Input File Name: C:\Users\Jon.Brodziak\Documents\AGEPRO\Example2_2017-12-29_14-19-44\Example2.INP
First Age Class: 1
Number of Age Classes: 9
Number of Years in Projection: 7
Number of Fleets: 1
Number of Recruitment Models: 1
Number of Bootstraps: 1000
Number of Simulations: 10
Bootstrap File Name: C:\Users\Jon.Brodziak\Documents\AGEPRO\Example2_2017-12-29_14-19-44\Example2.BSN
Number of Feasible Solutions: 10000 of 10000 Realizations
Input Harvest Scenario
Year Type Value
2014 Landings 500
2015 F-Mult 0.2000
2016 F-Mult 0.2000
2017 F-Mult 0.2000
2018 Removals 2497
2019 F-Mult 0.2000
2020 F-Mult 0.2000
Recruits 1000 Fish
Year Class Average StdDev
2014 2113.8225 2387.2409
2015 2095.2435 2388.6322
2016 2161.9981 2415.4853
2017 2154.6634 2430.4964
2018 2141.7581 2406.3266
2019 2156.4185 2450.1039
2020 2183.0481 2465.0965
Recruits Distribution
Year Class 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
2014 150.1671 205.1791 227.5903 331.1452 1120.8200 2542.1990 6162.8810 6484.1110 11028.6100
2015 149.3512 204.6887 228.6934 334.4683 1120.1820 2541.2640 6152.7080 6487.6110 11048.1000
2016 154.2960 203.8387 225.7294 361.4124 1129.3905 2545.1890 6212.6520 6501.7350 10886.1000
2017 152.0371 210.7372 232.7332 359.0538 1129.9945 2544.1510 6190.1710 6506.0160 11309.1700
2018 153.6666 204.7484 227.5898 349.5553 1122.8935 2544.3130 6203.1390 6499.2570 11243.7600
2019 152.0957 209.2503 231.1399 342.5836 1125.1445 2543.9000 6212.2790 6536.6520 11337.6800
2020 150.5870 206.1237 230.0479 360.4650 1132.4435 2544.9890 6226.1050 6535.5360 11422.0900
Spawning Stock Biomass x 1000 MT
Year Average StdDev
2014 6.6153 1.5860
2015 11.0899 2.9220
2016 12.8636 3.4163
2017 12.6038 3.2662
2018 11.3916 3.0953
2019 9.7421 3.0356
2020 9.0292 2.7831
Spawning Stock Biomass Distribution
Year 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
2014 3.5200 4.3275 4.7137 5.4851 6.4722 7.5894 8.7222 9.4729 10.9446
2015 5.4666 6.9514 7.6632 8.9364 10.7412 12.9279 14.9858 16.4572 19.3031
2016 6.4490 8.0138 8.8712 10.3627 12.4238 15.0340 17.4631 19.0611 22.6196
2017 6.5380 7.9215 8.7276 10.2139 12.2223 14.6496 17.0540 18.4992 21.5570
2018 5.6092 6.9035 7.6665 9.1293 11.0387 13.3430 15.5845 16.9557 19.8974
2019 4.0236 5.3269 6.0556 7.5435 9.4281 11.6586 13.8259 15.2291 17.8403
2020 3.8158 4.9913 5.6425 6.9951 8.7759 10.8012 12.7350 14.0313 16.5065
JAN-1 Stock Biomass x 1000 MT
Year Average StdDev
2014 11.4167 2.9021
2015 13.9657 3.6246
2016 14.8968 3.8103
2017 14.6414 3.6817
2018 13.7025 3.4096
2019 11.6265 3.4733
2020 10.8758 3.2285
JAN-1 Stock Biomass Distribution
Year 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
2014 5.8387 7.3015 8.0296 9.3083 11.0600 13.2142 15.2749 16.6707 19.5190
2015 7.1894 8.8204 9.7234 11.2971 13.5244 16.2526 18.8028 20.6046 24.1617
2016 7.7881 9.4605 10.4082 12.1233 14.4212 17.2943 20.0188 21.8708 25.6910
2017 7.7478 9.3316 10.2328 11.9419 14.2320 16.9148 19.6778 21.2949 24.6684
2018 7.2064 8.7307 9.5603 11.2420 13.3875 15.8500 18.2481 19.8581 22.8287
2019 4.9782 6.5211 7.4069 9.0983 11.3092 13.8388 16.3219 17.7958 20.9340
2020 4.7593 6.1337 6.9781 8.5232 10.5738 12.9143 15.2091 16.6590 19.4733
Mean Biomass x 1000 MT
Year Average StdDev
2014 13.5594 3.5654
2015 15.0921 4.0054
2016 15.3716 3.9588
2017 14.6866 3.7276
2018 12.9499 3.5927
2019 11.4205 3.4391
2020 10.7213 3.2607
Mean Biomass Distribution
Year 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
2014 6.7743 8.5594 9.4054 10.9301 13.1275 15.7951 18.3751 20.0235 23.4287
2015 7.5738 9.4465 10.3652 12.1587 14.5926 17.5658 20.4590 22.3897 26.2371
2016 7.9903 9.7496 10.6488 12.4953 14.9115 17.8132 20.7241 22.5648 26.2661
2017 7.6799 9.2810 10.1779 11.9493 14.2831 17.0375 19.6923 21.2855 24.9087
2018 6.1034 7.6719 8.5812 10.3214 12.6155 15.2101 17.6818 19.3861 22.5858
2019 4.9062 6.3754 7.2373 8.9247 11.0836 13.6122 15.9977 17.5320 20.7117
2020 4.6255 5.9719 6.7819 8.3407 10.4020 12.7506 15.0877 16.4991 19.5794
Combined Catch Biomass x 1000 MT
Year Average StdDev
2014 0.5000 0.0000
2015 0.8803 0.2338
2016 1.1420 0.3043
2017 1.4560 0.3947
2018 2.4966 0.0000
2019 1.3033 0.4176
2020 1.2978 0.4060
Combined Catch Distribution
Year 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
2014 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000
2015 0.4340 0.5427 0.6046 0.7113 0.8555 1.0264 1.1884 1.3045 1.5357
2016 0.5651 0.7098 0.7834 0.9215 1.1052 1.3265 1.5480 1.6929 1.9909
2017 0.7298 0.9039 0.9911 1.1700 1.4071 1.6944 1.9823 2.1726 2.6016
2018 2.4966 2.4966 2.4966 2.4966 2.4966 2.4966 2.4966 2.4966 2.4966
2019 0.5368 0.7012 0.8076 0.9984 1.2549 1.5584 1.8669 2.0601 2.4484
2020 0.5392 0.7114 0.8088 1.0025 1.2569 1.5518 1.8438 2.0309 2.3896
Landings x 1000 MT
Year Average StdDev
2014 0.5000 0.0000
2015 0.8803 0.2338
2016 1.1420 0.3043
2017 1.4560 0.3947
2018 2.4966 0.0000
2019 1.3033 0.4176
2020 1.2978 0.4060
Landings Distribution
Year 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
2014 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000
2015 0.4340 0.5427 0.6046 0.7113 0.8555 1.0264 1.1884 1.3045 1.5357
2016 0.5651 0.7098 0.7834 0.9215 1.1052 1.3265 1.5480 1.6929 1.9909
2017 0.7298 0.9039 0.9911 1.1700 1.4071 1.6944 1.9823 2.1726 2.6016
2018 2.4966 2.4966 2.4966 2.4966 2.4966 2.4966 2.4966 2.4966 2.4966
2019 0.5368 0.7012 0.8076 0.9984 1.2549 1.5584 1.8669 2.0601 2.4484
2020 0.5392 0.7114 0.8088 1.0025 1.2569 1.5518 1.8438 2.0309 2.3896
Total Fishing Mortality
Year Average StdDev
2014 0.2105 0.0583
2015 0.2000 0.0000
2016 0.2000 0.0000
2017 0.2000 0.0000
2018 0.3687 0.1159
2019 0.2000 0.0000
2020 0.2000 0.0000
Total Fishing Mortality Distribution
Year 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
2014 0.1148 0.1340 0.1461 0.1696 0.2014 0.2412 0.2857 0.3139 0.3952
2015 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000
2016 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000
2017 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000
2018 0.1825 0.2189 0.2408 0.2860 0.3500 0.4296 0.5190 0.5799 0.7405
2019 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000
2020 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000
JAN-1 Stock Numbers at Age - 1000 Fish
2014
Age 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
1 1095.7400 1126.8200 1157.6700 1199.9000 1247.3900 1293.2100 1339.0500 1360.0600 1404.8700
2 5815.7300 7232.0700 8377.4700 10215.8000 12906.8500 16274.7000 19489.5000 22076.3000 26764.3000
3 605.2860 742.5500 868.7790 1068.1800 1346.6300 1645.2400 2021.1100 2259.3700 2788.3600
4 1901.0200 2180.2500 2400.8400 2791.0000 3321.5800 3853.1700 4463.8300 4836.6200 5563.4700
5 176.1790 213.9540 241.0530 284.5670 342.7900 418.2160 477.3430 529.6300 634.5340
6 32.9855 41.5396 46.7232 56.6142 69.9137 88.1928 104.1120 118.6870 136.1660
7 12.9987 16.9683 19.9008 24.6551 31.1685 38.9058 47.6952 55.4722 66.0063
8 50.5496 64.3146 72.2744 89.3943 110.0280 133.9590 157.0870 170.5340 207.6260
9+ 103.9710 159.1740 182.0530 225.6940 284.1005 356.5180 433.8950 482.1760 567.9220
2015
Age 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
1 150.1671 205.1791 227.5903 331.1452 1120.8200 2542.1990 6162.8810 6484.1110 11028.6100
2 887.8562 922.5597 942.9964 979.3431 1019.9400 1061.2890 1100.2170 1123.0770 1160.5660
3 4724.3670 5884.9600 6798.6190 8276.9970 10469.3300 13189.7300 15985.8800 18030.0100 21786.0300
4 458.6349 579.8621 677.1247 832.9786 1056.4355 1303.7760 1602.3610 1814.0020 2236.2140
5 1388.8850 1636.0870 1812.6300 2132.5230 2555.2555 2996.3000 3495.6230 3824.3460 4417.0360
6 120.7904 150.2547 172.1194 206.6085 252.4803 312.3292 361.4383 400.4779 498.4812
7 21.3308 27.8132 31.8572 39.5234 50.0190 63.7509 76.3860 88.3243 102.9572
8 8.1611 11.0643 12.9375 16.8231 21.5830 27.4805 34.0739 39.6238 48.4185
9+ 99.1900 142.4742 166.3174 212.3172 272.2853 345.9320 425.8746 468.2724 564.1196
2016
Age 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
1 149.3512 204.6887 228.6934 334.4683 1120.1820 2541.2640 6152.7080 6487.6110 11048.1000
2 122.6079 167.5320 186.7238 270.6380 932.5010 2086.0260 5051.1580 5326.5060 9020.4290
3 710.6238 743.4937 762.5140 792.6984 826.6821 862.4630 895.3975 913.9427 949.1091
4 3699.5560 4632.8560 5342.0500 6523.0780 8265.4655 10393.9500 12573.6900 14252.8300 17146.8600
5 353.6407 447.9320 522.2761 642.1836 814.4617 1004.5240 1234.6130 1397.6710 1723.4520
6 1022.0040 1210.2630 1332.3580 1574.6600 1884.6520 2212.1540 2583.8580 2825.5160 3269.6370
7 85.6311 107.2060 122.3344 147.0802 180.6755 222.8392 258.5840 286.6373 358.1803
8 14.7620 19.2894 22.1592 27.4605 34.8072 44.3394 53.2656 61.4762 71.9711
9+ 76.3752 107.4038 125.3629 160.6426 205.1725 259.9684 318.5978 352.4900 422.2210
2017
Age 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
1 154.2960 203.8387 225.7294 361.4124 1129.3905 2545.1890 6212.6520 6501.7350 10886.1000
2 122.4453 166.9060 186.5583 273.5268 924.9599 2074.8450 5058.8330 5326.8450 9059.0880
3 98.6721 135.7598 151.5422 218.5243 758.2042 1695.3800 4090.3880 4320.9590 7276.3590
4 555.9447 583.0513 598.1129 623.8630 651.9622 681.2245 708.2104 724.4374 754.6333
5 2851.8990 3580.1050 4117.6850 5024.5930 6371.6070 8004.3590 9689.6580 10972.1000 13239.3800
6 261.0618 330.7912 384.8489 473.6005 600.6945 742.7213 913.8329 1037.5410 1277.2900
7 726.6373 861.8317 950.5333 1123.4050 1341.5895 1577.9470 1845.7470 2020.5990 2342.8860
8 59.3449 74.6039 85.0226 102.4041 125.6241 155.1049 180.6077 200.1796 252.7425
9+ 65.8990 89.2369 103.3606 131.8739 167.2694 209.3213 257.1538 283.2395 341.7310
2018
Age 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
1 152.0371 210.7372 232.7332 359.0538 1129.9945 2544.1510 6190.1710 6506.0160 11309.1700
2 125.9985 167.1557 185.6035 295.5600 935.4454 2097.9120 5084.9840 5334.7680 8852.2650
3 99.7584 134.7766 152.1943 222.3991 751.9013 1685.2500 4105.3300 4336.8570 7370.9580
4 78.4004 106.8737 119.8788 172.1859 597.7342 1338.5740 3226.9110 3417.3480 5798.7450
5 424.1483 447.3210 459.3271 479.6160 502.7516 526.7769 548.9252 561.7752 586.3748
6 2089.6800 2644.4020 3036.4550 3710.9630 4707.0140 5923.2100 7170.1380 8083.2790 9706.0750
7 187.2364 235.6444 273.3657 337.6416 428.3732 530.8136 653.5985 742.1140 910.3953
8 502.6856 601.8133 660.8785 780.8261 935.3516 1100.4240 1284.5000 1409.9500 1644.4540
9+ 88.7375 117.2458 132.9764 162.7726 203.1062 248.8700 296.8760 328.0390 390.5430
2019
Age 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
1 153.6666 204.7484 227.5898 349.5553 1122.8935 2544.3130 6203.1390 6499.2570 11243.7600
2 125.6385 171.2869 191.4572 293.4845 936.8988 2101.1120 5065.3120 5337.1690 9282.9010
3 100.6454 133.9611 149.4112 239.4418 755.7065 1695.1120 4083.9320 4302.3260 7124.3410
4 75.9471 101.6247 116.3168 169.1645 576.0969 1288.6220 3151.6090 3347.2970 5651.9420
5 56.9325 77.0244 87.8735 126.1823 438.8362 990.5278 2389.8910 2567.0220 4265.1580
6 241.0660 274.4351 290.0872 315.9705 342.6452 368.9478 392.5774 405.1795 430.8668
7 1088.2510 1459.0940 1752.8150 2264.1170 3022.4015 3969.4200 4952.0780 5644.7680 6985.5020
8 92.5160 126.7009 153.4395 200.6431 262.7260 334.9452 427.0272 493.7872 614.5672
9+ 249.7404 360.1757 416.3782 521.9749 661.7476 821.6150 987.4303 1108.2670 1319.1460
2020
Age 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
1 152.0957 209.2503 231.1399 342.5836 1125.1445 2543.9000 6212.2790 6536.6520 11337.6800
2 125.4417 168.1045 186.3815 286.0352 934.1904 2103.3390 5072.6260 5335.4040 9113.0580
3 101.2067 138.5952 155.5509 238.0804 764.2864 1702.1790 4113.1280 4342.2010 7582.7920
4 79.8333 105.2166 118.2490 189.0875 597.1814 1343.2180 3222.5690 3401.1950 5652.6620
5 58.6316 78.3392 90.1692 130.4061 445.5383 997.0890 2427.3970 2591.6970 4376.1830
6 41.8457 56.4963 64.9800 93.3839 324.2153 733.5625 1763.0560 1905.3330 3168.3210
7 171.4524 195.2795 206.3613 224.8976 244.1048 263.1188 280.4399 289.7867 308.1276
8 749.8229 1020.1310 1215.3620 1577.0540 2104.9460 2770.4520 3463.9650 3924.7230 4854.7490
9+ 244.0270 346.8155 405.7743 507.1333 642.8957 794.1324 959.9258 1070.2010 1260.2230
Requested Percentile Report
Percentile = 90.00 %
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Recruits 6162.8810 6152.7080 6212.6520 6190.1710 6203.1390 6212.2790 6226.1050
Spawning Stock Biomass 8.7222 14.9858 17.4631 17.0540 15.5845 13.8259 12.7350
Jan-1 Stock Biomass 15.2749 18.8028 20.0188 19.6778 18.2481 16.3219 15.2091
Mean Biomass 18.3751 20.4590 20.7241 19.6923 17.6818 15.9977 15.0877
Combined Catch Biomass 0.5000 1.1884 1.5480 1.9823 2.4966 1.8669 1.8438
Landings 0.5000 1.1884 1.5480 1.9823 2.4966 1.8669 1.8438
FMort 0.2857 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.5190 0.2000 0.2000
Stock Numbers at Age
Age 1 1339.0500 6162.8810 6152.7080 6212.6520 6190.1710 6203.1390 6212.2790
Age 2 19489.5000 1100.2170 5051.1580 5058.8330 5084.9840 5065.3120 5072.6260
Age 3 2021.1100 15985.8800 895.3975 4090.3880 4105.3300 4083.9320 4113.1280
Age 4 4463.8300 1602.3610 12573.6900 708.2104 3226.9110 3151.6090 3222.5690
Age 5 477.3430 3495.6230 1234.6130 9689.6580 548.9252 2389.8910 2427.3970
Age 6 104.1120 361.4383 2583.8580 913.8329 7170.1380 392.5774 1763.0560
Age 7 47.6952 76.3860 258.5840 1845.7470 653.5985 4952.0780 280.4399
Age 8 157.0870 34.0739 53.2656 180.6077 1284.5000 427.0272 3463.9650
Age 9 433.8950 425.8746 318.5978 257.1538 296.8760 987.4303 959.9258
PStar Summary Report
Overfishing F = 0.3500 Target Year = 2018
PStar TAC
0.1000 1780
0.2000 1998
0.3000 2176
0.4000 2332
0.5000 2497
```