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11-3_example3.qmd
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11-3_example3.qmd
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---
editor:
mode: source
---
### Example 3 {.unnumbered}
The third example is a fishing mortality and landings quota projection for Gulf of Maine haddock with a rebuilding analysis for 2014-2020. The fishery is comprised of one fleet with process error in fishery selectivity. This is rebuilding projection with 1000 bootstraps and 10 simulations per bootstrap based on an ASAP stock assessment analysis. The model output shows the constant fishing mortality to rebuild the stock is $F_{REBUILD} = 0.045$. The model output includes a stock summary of numbers at age and also outputs a percentile analysis for key outputs at the $90^{th}$ percentile.
Running example 3 produces the following output:
```default
AGEPRO VERSION 4.2
GoM haddock ASAP_final FREBUILD Projection
Date & Time of Run: 29 Dec 2017 14:49
Input File Name: C:\Users\Jon.Brodziak\Documents\AGEPRO\Example3_2017-12-29_14-49-07\Example3.INP
First Age Class: 1
Number of Age Classes: 9
Number of Years in Projection: 7
Number of Fleets: 1
Number of Recruitment Models: 1
Number of Bootstraps: 1000
Number of Simulations: 10
Bootstrap File Name: C:\Users\Jon.Brodziak\Documents\AGEPRO\Example3_2017-12-29_14-49-07\Example3.BSN
Number of Feasible Solutions: 10000 of 10000 Realizations
Input Harvest Scenario
Year Type Value
2014 Landings 500
2015 F-Mult 0.3000
2016 F-Mult 0.3000
2017 F-Mult 0.3000
2018 F-Mult 0.3000
2019 F-Mult 0.3000
2020 F-Mult 0.3000
Recruits 1000 Fish
Year Class Average StdDev
2014 2170.8200 2441.8617
2015 2144.2492 2416.6899
2016 2150.4373 2418.5021
2017 2077.7020 2359.7104
2018 2169.2781 2458.9123
2019 2146.2591 2453.9399
2020 2109.8574 2409.5591
Recruits Distribution
Year Class 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
2014 153.7521 208.0085 229.3621 347.0616 1132.0955 2545.3470 6225.6320 6522.2980 11133.4100
2015 152.8537 207.5118 228.9794 352.4027 1126.1215 2542.6540 6181.5870 6500.1300 11200.0900
2016 152.0864 205.9702 227.0639 334.5421 1120.9140 2544.0470 6196.3710 6505.2510 10864.6400
2017 153.9306 204.6065 223.9934 335.6253 1120.2075 2541.6660 6154.7360 6491.9800 10947.3800
2018 151.7663 206.4086 227.8564 353.3611 1136.3925 2544.5000 6227.9310 6534.0640 11412.9500
2019 150.6260 205.4969 229.0507 342.5477 1120.8380 2543.5260 6205.1600 6521.0480 11515.9200
2020 152.6280 209.8481 230.9342 348.8617 1120.4415 2541.6850 6179.7760 6495.6550 11322.8800
Spawning Stock Biomass x 1000 MT
Year Average StdDev
2014 6.6170 1.5864
2015 11.2472 2.9734
2016 13.6893 3.6225
2017 14.2545 3.6743
2018 14.2000 3.5843
2019 13.8474 3.4929
2020 13.5056 3.3958
Spawning Stock Biomass Distribution
Year 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
2014 3.5078 4.3130 4.7139 5.4741 6.4677 7.5996 8.7246 9.5079 10.8959
2015 5.5792 7.0419 7.7295 9.0558 10.8637 13.1038 15.2164 16.6561 19.6792
2016 6.8389 8.5537 9.4430 11.0420 13.2202 15.9565 18.5612 20.2245 23.9665
2017 7.3671 8.9936 9.9199 11.6008 13.8159 16.5604 19.2488 20.9204 24.5266
2018 7.4340 9.0080 9.8747 11.5974 13.8368 16.4445 18.9478 20.6655 24.1175
2019 7.2135 8.7442 9.6034 11.3116 13.5319 16.0556 18.4609 20.0106 23.2609
2020 7.1247 8.5118 9.3369 11.0000 13.2158 15.6735 18.0730 19.5799 22.4662
JAN-1 Stock Biomass x 1000 MT
Year Average StdDev
2014 11.4174 2.8996
2015 13.9853 3.6385
2016 15.5776 3.9671
2017 16.1162 4.0252
2018 16.0743 3.9486
2019 15.7028 3.8651
2020 15.3638 3.7809
JAN-1 Stock Biomass Distribution
Year 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
2014 5.9561 7.3305 8.0160 9.3127 11.0570 13.2145 15.2783 16.6890 19.4895
2015 7.0768 8.8151 9.7325 11.3215 13.5287 16.2558 18.8747 20.6014 24.4138
2016 8.1564 9.8810 10.8909 12.7070 15.0950 18.1127 20.8555 22.7520 26.5054
2017 8.5564 10.2829 11.2717 13.1921 15.6896 18.6290 21.5091 23.3583 27.0562
2018 8.5860 10.3039 11.2642 13.1568 15.7288 18.5593 21.3129 23.1065 26.8372
2019 8.3366 10.0510 10.9747 12.8914 15.3734 18.1349 20.8302 22.5606 26.1722
2020 8.1237 9.7586 10.7283 12.5950 15.0481 17.7564 20.3938 22.0870 25.1322
Mean Biomass x 1000 MT
Year Average StdDev
2014 13.5499 3.5542
2015 15.4331 4.0737
2016 16.4904 4.2029
2017 16.6939 4.1849
2018 16.3128 4.0289
2019 15.7412 3.9122
2020 15.4252 3.8993
Mean Biomass Distribution
Year 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
2014 6.8296 8.5113 9.3948 10.9509 13.0968 15.7592 18.2887 20.0230 23.4237
2015 7.8519 9.6342 10.6250 12.5018 14.9013 17.9378 20.8969 22.8972 27.2031
2016 8.6093 10.4184 11.4735 13.4336 16.0525 19.1332 22.1543 24.0733 28.1761
2017 8.7683 10.6194 11.6720 13.6335 16.2788 19.3000 22.2328 24.2065 28.2042
2018 8.6469 10.3838 11.3612 13.3676 15.9913 18.8559 21.6646 23.4338 27.1640
2019 8.3179 9.9544 10.9414 12.8538 15.4182 18.2748 20.9306 22.6906 26.1512
2020 7.9700 9.6937 10.6649 12.5609 15.0972 17.9037 20.6399 22.3327 25.8592
Combined Catch Biomass x 1000 MT
Year Average StdDev
2014 0.5000 0.0000
2015 0.2016 0.0530
2016 0.2789 0.0737
2017 0.3796 0.1018
2018 0.4419 0.1161
2019 0.4422 0.1156
2020 0.4748 0.1232
Combined Catch Distribution
Year 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
2014 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000
2015 0.1003 0.1249 0.1392 0.1633 0.1963 0.2339 0.2728 0.2977 0.3469
2016 0.1394 0.1741 0.1925 0.2250 0.2708 0.3237 0.3775 0.4135 0.4824
2017 0.1914 0.2364 0.2608 0.3046 0.3669 0.4417 0.5168 0.5646 0.6686
2018 0.2283 0.2769 0.3047 0.3575 0.4290 0.5124 0.5971 0.6567 0.7565
2019 0.2287 0.2767 0.3051 0.3569 0.4295 0.5137 0.5978 0.6517 0.7612
2020 0.2444 0.2973 0.3263 0.3852 0.4629 0.5511 0.6407 0.6968 0.8046
Landings x 1000 MT
Year Average StdDev
2014 0.5000 0.0000
2015 0.2016 0.0530
2016 0.2789 0.0737
2017 0.3796 0.1018
2018 0.4419 0.1161
2019 0.4422 0.1156
2020 0.4748 0.1232
Landings Distribution
Year 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
2014 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000
2015 0.1003 0.1249 0.1392 0.1633 0.1963 0.2339 0.2728 0.2977 0.3469
2016 0.1394 0.1741 0.1925 0.2250 0.2708 0.3237 0.3775 0.4135 0.4824
2017 0.1914 0.2364 0.2608 0.3046 0.3669 0.4417 0.5168 0.5646 0.6686
2018 0.2283 0.2769 0.3047 0.3575 0.4290 0.5124 0.5971 0.6567 0.7565
2019 0.2287 0.2767 0.3051 0.3569 0.4295 0.5137 0.5978 0.6517 0.7612
2020 0.2444 0.2973 0.3263 0.3852 0.4629 0.5511 0.6407 0.6968 0.8046
Total Fishing Mortality
Year Average StdDev
2014 0.2102 0.0578
2015 0.0445 0.0000
2016 0.0445 0.0000
2017 0.0445 0.0000
2018 0.0445 0.0000
2019 0.0445 0.0000
2020 0.0445 0.0000
Total Fishing Mortality Distribution
Year 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
2014 0.1162 0.1334 0.1462 0.1696 0.2015 0.2408 0.2839 0.3145 0.3851
2015 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445
2016 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445
2017 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445
2018 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445
2019 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445
2020 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445
JAN-1 Stock Numbers at Age - 1000 Fish
2014
Age 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
1 1095.7400 1126.8200 1157.6700 1199.9000 1247.3900 1293.2100 1339.0500 1360.0600 1404.8700
2 5815.7300 7232.0700 8377.4700 10215.8000 12906.8500 16274.7000 19489.5000 22076.3000 26764.3000
3 605.2860 742.5500 868.7790 1068.1800 1346.6300 1645.2400 2021.1100 2259.3700 2788.3600
4 1901.0200 2180.2500 2400.8400 2791.0000 3321.5800 3853.1700 4463.8300 4836.6200 5563.4700
5 176.1790 213.9540 241.0530 284.5670 342.7900 418.2160 477.3430 529.6300 634.5340
6 32.9855 41.5396 46.7232 56.6142 69.9137 88.1928 104.1120 118.6870 136.1660
7 12.9987 16.9683 19.9008 24.6551 31.1685 38.9058 47.6952 55.4722 66.0063
8 50.5496 64.3146 72.2744 89.3943 110.0280 133.9590 157.0870 170.5340 207.6260
9+ 103.9710 159.1740 182.0530 225.6940 284.1005 356.5180 433.8950 482.1760 567.9220
2015
Age 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
1 153.7521 208.0085 229.3621 347.0616 1132.0955 2545.3470 6225.6320 6522.2980 11133.4100
2 886.9999 920.9055 944.3435 979.9522 1020.1620 1060.7430 1100.8560 1122.0680 1162.0630
3 4740.6350 5881.5180 6788.0890 8280.2530 10437.9000 13190.6000 15924.2900 17940.1300 21772.2100
4 462.1501 579.5480 678.5247 836.1118 1057.6295 1300.8420 1601.9910 1805.4510 2228.2810
5 1402.6870 1632.0730 1811.3860 2130.7570 2557.1140 3001.1490 3490.7850 3797.3750 4431.1560
6 121.0333 150.3102 172.2205 206.2701 252.2545 312.3252 361.8990 399.4688 500.4583
7 21.2549 27.8869 31.7288 39.5810 50.0350 63.4947 76.4838 88.1371 102.7191
8 8.1178 11.0340 12.9066 16.8518 21.5642 27.4360 34.0090 39.6686 48.5591
9+ 99.6480 143.0746 165.8811 212.3056 272.7287 345.4891 426.8521 469.6036 565.7290
2016
Age 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
1 152.8537 207.5118 228.9794 352.4027 1126.1215 2542.6540 6181.5870 6500.1300 11200.0900
2 125.6120 169.9832 187.3362 285.8009 935.7087 2106.8640 5088.4640 5358.8910 9065.7230
3 717.8408 749.2020 767.2159 798.8983 833.9748 868.6385 901.6998 920.6849 957.7862
4 3849.5580 4772.2030 5517.5350 6713.5670 8486.4350 10724.0600 12954.9300 14583.3900 17684.0800
5 368.8452 470.1688 546.3981 674.9982 854.9253 1053.6940 1296.1080 1465.7940 1812.3090
6 1112.4340 1304.3160 1447.6410 1703.7200 2044.2600 2402.5000 2796.6280 3037.7140 3551.5220
7 95.8425 119.3594 136.5312 163.6895 200.5233 247.8007 287.8207 317.0682 397.7311
8 16.6931 22.0278 25.0771 31.2594 39.5369 50.2574 60.4657 69.4576 81.1850
9+ 87.9257 122.3541 142.6734 181.7372 232.7070 294.7329 361.5172 399.8996 479.7186
2017
Age 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
1 152.0864 205.9702 227.0639 334.5421 1120.9140 2544.0470 6196.3710 6505.2510 10864.6400
2 124.9328 169.5370 187.5875 289.2126 936.7591 2082.4200 5059.7310 5330.1260 9139.4520
3 102.7604 138.0878 153.3027 233.9465 767.8980 1732.9510 4159.4080 4386.5270 7358.2990
4 578.2827 604.7967 621.0119 646.7345 676.8689 707.3514 734.5654 751.9041 781.6806
5 3091.6750 3845.1700 4440.2080 5421.1320 6866.7700 8644.6120 10492.0100 11781.0100 14283.2900
6 296.0683 374.3265 437.9340 540.8164 682.1429 842.5300 1037.5380 1173.8450 1454.1730
7 879.9575 1036.5260 1146.0000 1352.4100 1621.8885 1915.9780 2223.3420 2419.6970 2822.7990
8 75.7144 94.2965 107.6556 129.2856 158.5479 195.8338 227.5058 250.5553 316.8310
9+ 86.1764 115.7229 134.3767 170.3536 216.4243 270.1949 329.6626 363.0636 442.1880
2018
Age 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
1 153.9306 204.6065 223.9934 335.6253 1120.2075 2541.6660 6154.7360 6491.9800 10947.3800
2 124.3599 168.1019 186.5384 274.1155 933.7431 2097.5150 5068.9150 5351.9300 8980.8960
3 102.6584 138.0619 153.2109 234.4648 768.2888 1705.2570 4137.6920 4376.4240 7491.3740
4 83.0630 111.7923 125.1747 190.0386 624.9189 1406.8860 3375.8670 3580.8130 5996.0150
5 463.1497 486.4656 499.5535 521.4975 546.8899 572.8059 596.2554 610.6294 636.2804
6 2458.2110 3074.0040 3543.9720 4341.7510 5493.7480 6912.7910 8409.3140 9431.2870 11449.5100
7 232.8949 297.6859 348.1032 429.2734 541.3385 669.5108 824.7090 932.7457 1149.7860
8 693.9673 815.9270 903.8471 1069.8840 1279.5850 1510.4820 1752.6630 1913.4760 2242.3930
9+ 131.7504 172.7009 195.3063 239.6761 298.3704 363.7684 430.1583 479.6413 576.7128
2019
Age 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
1 151.7663 206.4086 227.8564 353.3611 1136.3925 2544.5000 6227.9310 6534.0640 11412.9500
2 126.1664 166.8946 184.0337 273.6497 926.2880 2074.8740 5060.7700 5321.2440 9009.6770
3 101.1790 137.3052 152.7485 223.9679 764.1367 1718.8710 4145.2170 4387.6230 7300.6000
4 83.1064 111.7158 124.8275 190.8343 624.4940 1389.5640 3365.4510 3567.1850 6061.0810
5 67.4937 90.0772 101.2675 154.1486 505.3076 1142.8570 2726.6630 2894.6220 4833.3090
6 367.9427 387.4575 398.0623 416.4294 437.2194 459.0043 478.4960 491.2420 512.2461
7 1965.4640 2431.6780 2821.0370 3445.3130 4364.2560 5494.9360 6693.2650 7529.1950 9091.8490
8 183.2299 234.7869 274.1439 339.3622 427.2745 529.8703 651.1502 737.6687 912.8956
9+ 645.5298 785.3057 869.6136 1034.7050 1242.1625 1464.2670 1703.0170 1862.6330 2167.4780
2020
Age 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 95% 99%
1 150.6260 205.4969 229.0507 342.5477 1120.8380 2543.5260 6205.1600 6521.0480 11515.9200
2 123.8571 167.9808 187.1525 289.8989 937.2894 2106.1880 5097.7430 5374.9480 9313.5090
3 102.3573 135.9500 150.7452 222.9596 759.5409 1692.0840 4135.9360 4364.2630 7376.7490
4 81.7678 111.0348 123.6390 182.1238 620.7917 1400.0710 3356.1290 3576.1200 5956.0300
5 67.0329 89.8906 100.9146 154.5096 504.2604 1124.6640 2720.8110 2890.6500 4865.1570
6 54.1054 71.9035 81.1756 123.2250 405.4597 915.6747 2177.4730 2329.5830 3886.8050
7 290.4778 305.5871 315.3789 330.0894 347.1659 365.1161 381.6304 391.7124 410.2046
8 1534.5130 1921.6320 2227.5890 2721.7010 3447.9955 4331.5540 5284.6800 5929.2270 7222.0580
9+ 695.9149 838.0460 934.9111 1101.1280 1328.9345 1555.9650 1818.6410 1978.0690 2310.0400
Requested Percentile Report
Percentile = 90.00 %
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Recruits 6225.6320 6181.5870 6196.3710 6154.7360 6227.9310 6205.1600 6179.7760
Spawning Stock Biomass 8.7246 15.2164 18.5612 19.2488 18.9478 18.4609 18.0730
Jan-1 Stock Biomass 15.2783 18.8747 20.8555 21.5091 21.3129 20.8302 20.3938
Mean Biomass 18.2887 20.8969 22.1543 22.2328 21.6646 20.9306 20.6399
Combined Catch Biomass 0.5000 0.2728 0.3775 0.5168 0.5971 0.5978 0.6407
Landings 0.5000 0.2728 0.3775 0.5168 0.5971 0.5978 0.6407
FMort 0.2839 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445 0.0445
Stock Numbers at Age
Age 1 1339.0500 6225.6320 6181.5870 6196.3710 6154.7360 6227.9310 6205.1600
Age 2 19489.5000 1100.8560 5088.4640 5059.7310 5068.9150 5060.7700 5097.7430
Age 3 2021.1100 15924.2900 901.6998 4159.4080 4137.6920 4145.2170 4135.9360
Age 4 4463.8300 1601.9910 12954.9300 734.5654 3375.8670 3365.4510 3356.1290
Age 5 477.3430 3490.7850 1296.1080 10492.0100 596.2554 2726.6630 2720.8110
Age 6 104.1120 361.8990 2796.6280 1037.5380 8409.3140 478.4960 2177.4730
Age 7 47.6952 76.4838 287.8207 2223.3420 824.7090 6693.2650 381.6304
Age 8 157.0870 34.0090 60.4657 227.5058 1752.6630 651.1502 5284.6800
Age 9 433.8950 426.8521 361.5172 329.6626 430.1583 1703.0170 1818.6410
```