diff --git a/app/public/assets/posts/scottish-budget-2026-scp-premium-under-ones/constituency_map.html b/app/public/assets/posts/scottish-budget-2026-scp-premium-under-ones/constituency_map.html new file mode 100644 index 00000000..fda58b45 --- /dev/null +++ b/app/public/assets/posts/scottish-budget-2026-scp-premium-under-ones/constituency_map.html @@ -0,0 +1,1709 @@ + + + + + Scottish Constituency Map - SCP Baby Boost Impact + + + + +
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Average annual household gain
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+ + + diff --git a/app/public/assets/posts/scottish-budget-2026-scp-premium-under-ones/cover.webp b/app/public/assets/posts/scottish-budget-2026-scp-premium-under-ones/cover.webp new file mode 100644 index 00000000..9c504fc7 Binary files /dev/null and b/app/public/assets/posts/scottish-budget-2026-scp-premium-under-ones/cover.webp differ diff --git a/app/public/assets/posts/scottish-budget-2026-scp-premium-under-ones/figure1_relative_change.html b/app/public/assets/posts/scottish-budget-2026-scp-premium-under-ones/figure1_relative_change.html new file mode 100644 index 00000000..ef43bc72 --- /dev/null +++ b/app/public/assets/posts/scottish-budget-2026-scp-premium-under-ones/figure1_relative_change.html @@ -0,0 +1,211 @@ + + + + + Relative change in household income by income decile + + + + +
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+ + + diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/scottish-budget-2026-scp-premium-under-ones.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/scottish-budget-2026-scp-premium-under-ones.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..bde4ab77 --- /dev/null +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/scottish-budget-2026-scp-premium-under-ones.md @@ -0,0 +1,61 @@ +In December 2024, Finance Secretary Shona Robison [announced](https://news.stv.tv/politics/families-with-babies-to-get-40-a-week-scottish-government-announces) a new Scottish Child Payment (SCP) Premium for under-ones, increasing the payment to £40 per week for families with a baby under the age of one. This premium represents a 47% increase over the standard SCP payment of £27.15 per week. + +The Scottish Child Payment is a weekly payment to low-income families in Scotland for each child under 16. The SCP Premium for under-ones increases this payment from £27.15 to £40 per week during a child's first year of life. + +Using PolicyEngine's Scotland tax-benefit microsimulation model, we estimate that this reform would cost approximately £14 million in 2026-27, rising to £16 million by 2030-31. All gains are concentrated in the bottom four income deciles, with the largest benefits going to the second decile. + +## Background: The Scottish Child Payment + +The Scottish Child Payment is a Scottish Government benefit paid to eligible low-income families for each child under 16. The payment is currently £27.15 per week (£1,412 per year) per eligible child. Eligibility requires the family to receive certain qualifying benefits, including Universal Credit, Child Tax Credit, Income Support, Pension Credit, or income-based Jobseeker's Allowance. + +The new premium of £40 per week (£2,080 per year) will apply only to children under the age of one, providing an additional £668 per year during a child's first year of life. + +## Budgetary impact + +PolicyEngine estimates the following costs for the premium over the forecast period. + +**Table 1: Estimated cost of the SCP Premium for under-ones** + +| Year | Cost (£ million) | +| ------- | ---------------- | +| 2026-27 | 14.2 | +| 2027-28 | 14.9 | +| 2028-29 | 16.2 | +| 2029-30 | 16.3 | +| 2030-31 | 16.3 | + +## Distributional impact + +We find that the new program is limited to households in the bottom four income deciles. Figure 1 shows the absolute change in household income (in £ per year) by income decile. + +**Figure 1: Absolute change in household income by income decile (£/year)** + + + +In 2026-27, the second decile sees the largest gain at £2.84 per year. The first decile gains £2.54 per year, the third decile £1.71 per year, and the fourth decile £0.70 per year. Deciles 5-10 see no gains. + +Figure 2 shows the relative change in household income by decile, with a year selector to see how the impact evolves from 2026-27 to 2030-31. + +**Figure 2: Relative change in household income by income decile** + + + +## Poverty impact + +We measure poverty using absolute poverty before housing costs, defined as households with income below 60% of the 2010/11 median income, adjusted for inflation. This is the standard definition used in the government's [Households Below Average Income](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/households-below-average-income-hbai--2) publication. + +In 2026-27, overall poverty falls by 0.048 percentage points and child poverty by 0.12 percentage points. These figures remain roughly stable through 2029-30. Approximately 6,000 families would receive the premium. + +## Constituency impact + +Figure 3 shows the average annual household gain by constituency in 2026-27. + +**Figure 3: Average gain by constituency (2026-27)** + + + +Hover over each constituency to see the average annual gain for households in that area. + +## Conclusion + +The SCP Premium for under-ones would cost approximately £14 million in 2026-27, rising to £16 million by 2030-31, and provide an additional £668 annually to eligible families during their child's first year of life. All benefits flow to the bottom four income deciles, with the second decile seeing the largest gains. diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index e6282653..0c8f1189 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -1,4 +1,14 @@ [ + { + "title": "How Scottish Child Payment Premium for under-ones affects Scotland", + "description": "PolicyEngine estimates that the new Scottish Child Payment Premium for under-ones (£40 per week for babies under one) would cost £14 million in 2026-27, rising to £16 million by 2030-31, with all gains concentrated in the bottom four income deciles.", + "date": "2026-01-13 14:32:00", + "tags": ["uk", "policy", "featured"], + "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"], + "filename": "scottish-budget-2026-scp-premium-under-ones.md", + "image": "scottish-budget-2026-scp-premium-under-ones/cover.webp", + "imageCredit": "The Sun" + }, { "title": "Stronger Start for Working Families Act: Eliminating the CTC earnings threshold", "description": "The bipartisan legislation would cost $14.6 billion over ten years and benefit 5.9% of Americans.",