Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data

[chengjun]

Forecasting and nowcasting with Google Flu Trends

Rather than predicting the future, nowcasting attempts to use ideas from forecasting to measure the current state of the world; it attempts to “predict the present” (Choi and Varian 2012). Nowcasting has the potential to be especially useful to governments and companies that require timely and accurate measures of the world.

https://www.bitbybitbook.com/en/1st-ed/observing-behavior/strategies/forecasting/

Predicting the Present with Google Trends

HYUNYOUNG CHOI and HAL VARIAN

Google, Inc., California, USA

In this paper we show how to use search engine data to forecast near-term values of economic indicators. Examples include automobile sales, unemployment claims, travel destination planning and consumer confidence.

Choi, Hyunyoung, and Hal Varian. 2012. “Predicting the Present with Google Trends.” Economic Record 88 (June):2–9. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.2012.00809.x.

Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data

Jeremy Ginsberg et al. (2009) Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data. Nature. 457, pp:1012–1014 https://www.nature.com/articles/nature07634[#](https://chengjun.github.io/mybook/09-09-googleflustudy.html#forecasting-and-nowcasting-with-google-flu-trends)Ack1

• Google Query Data https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art:10.1038/nature07634/MediaObjects/41586_2009_BFnature07634_MOESM271_ESM.xls Query fractions for the top 100 search queries, sorted by mean Z-transformed correlation with CDC-provided ILI percentages across the nine regions of the United States. (XLS 5264 kb)
• CDC’s ILI Data. We use the weighted version of CDC’s ILI activity level as the estimation target (available at gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/fluportaldashboard.html). The weekly revisions of CDC’s ILI are available at the CDC website for all recorded seasons (from week 40 of a given year to week 20 of the subsequent year). Click Download Data to get the data.

For example, ILI report revision at week 50 of season 2012–2013 is available at www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2012-2013/data/senAllregt50.htm; ILI report revision at week 9 of season 2014–2015 is available at www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2014-2015/data/senAllregt09.html.

更多内容见：

https://chengjun.github.io/mybook/09-09-googleflustudy.html