coldpool_refs.bib

@article{Baker2021,
abstract = {The influence of climate on the dynamics of Arctic gadids is of increasing interest, particularly as research and survey effort expands in the Pacific Arctic. Understanding species-specific thermal tolerance may inform models of species distribution and projections of available habitat and also clarify implications of warming for ecological communities. Analyzing shifts in species distribution in warm and cold periods, this study considers the effects of a warming climate on the distribution of two keystone Arctic gadids (polar cod, saffron cod) and two commercially important sub-Arctic gadids (walleye pollock, Pacific cod). Shifts in distribution were used to derive temperature tolerance thresholds and to project how these species might react to a warming Arctic. Significant shifts were noted in comparisons of warm (2002–2005, 2014–2016, 2017–2018) and cold (2006–2013) periods. Sub-Arctic species expanded and contracted their range as environmental conditions shifted. In contrast, Arctic species appeared constrained, such that population densities increased or decreased within the same core geographic area. Additionally, species with a demersal life history were able to tolerate a wider range of thermal conditions. These results provide important insights on relative thermal tolerance of each species, differential influence of temperature on pelagic versus demersal life histories, and depth as thermal refuge. This study demonstrates both the need to understand the spatial response of fish to changing ocean conditions in polar regions and the utility of distributional analyses to inform that effort.},
author = {Baker, Matthew R.},
doi = {10.1007/s00300-021-02856-x},
file = {:C\:/Users/sean.rohan/Downloads/Baker2021_Article_ContrastOfWarmAndColdPhasesInT.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {14322056},
journal = {Polar Biology},
keywords = {Climate,Habitat,Pacific cod,Polar cod,Saffron cod,Sea ice,Thermal tolerance,Walleye pollock},
number = {6},
pages = {1083--1105},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Contrast of warm and cold phases in the Bering Sea to understand spatial distributions of Arctic and sub-Arctic gadids}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-021-02856-x},
volume = {44},
year = {2021}
}


@article{Eisner2020a,
abstract = {Control of initial moisture content and moisture migration is critical to the quality and safety of multi-domain foods. Moisture loss or gain from one region or food component to another region will continuously occur in order to reach thermodynamic equilibrium with the surrounding food components and the environment. Two main factors influencing the amount and rate of moisture migration are water activity equilibrium (thermodynamics) and factors affecting the diffusion rate (dynamics of mass transfer). Adding an edible layer between domains, changing the water activity of the food ingredients, changing the effective diffusivity of the water, and changing the viscosity (molecular mobility) in the entrapped amorphous phases are several means to control water migration between domains in food systems.},
author = {Eisner, Lisa B. and Zuenko, Yury I. and Basyuk, Eugene O. and Britt, Lyle L. and Duffy-Anderson, Janet T. and Kotwicki, Stan and Ladd, Carol and Cheng, Wei},
doi = {10.1016/j.dsr2.2020.104881},
file = {:C\:/Users/sean.rohan/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Eisner et al. - 2020 - Environmental impacts on walleye pollock (iGadus chalcogrammusi) distribution across the Bering Sea shelf.pdf:pdf;:C\:/Users/sean.rohan/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Eisner et al. - 2020 - Environmental impacts on walleye pollock (iGadus chalcogrammusi) distribution across the Bering Sea shelf(2).pdf:pdf},
isbn = {7696853961},
issn = {09670645},
journal = {Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography},
keywords = {Bering sea,Cold pool,Sea ice,Temperature,Walleye pollock},
month = {dec},
number = {October},
pages = {104881},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Environmental impacts on walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) distribution across the Bering Sea shelf}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jns.2019.116544 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0967064520301314 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2020.104881},
volume = {181-182},
year = {2020}
}


@article{Gruss2021,
author = {Gr{\"{u}}ss, Arnaud and Thorson, James T and Stawitz, Christine C and Reum, Jonathan C.P. and Rohan, Sean K. and Barnes, Cheryl L.},
doi = {10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102569},
file = {:C\:/Users/sean.rohan/Downloads/Grssetal.2021b.pdf:pdf},
issn = {00796611},
journal = {Progress in Oceanography},
keywords = {Cold-pool extent,Eastern Bering Sea,Empirical orthogonal functions,Spatio-temporal models,Walleye pollock},
month = {jun},
pages = {102569},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Synthesis of interannual variability in spatial demographic processes supports the strong influence of cold-pool extent on eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus)}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102569 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0079661121000562},
volume = {194},
year = {2021}
}

@article{Kotwicki2013,
abstract = {This study uses a 30-year time series of standardized bottom trawl survey data (1982-2011) from the eastern Bering Sea shelf to model patterns of summer spatial distribution for various bottom fishes and crabs in response to changes in the areal extent of the cold pool, time lag between surveys, and fluctuations in population abundance. This investigation is the first to include data for the 2006-2010 cold period and to use between-year comparisons of local and shelf-wide spatial indices to test specific responses to three different isothermal boundaries within the cold pool. Distributional shifts in population varied considerably among species and directional vectors for some species were greater in magnitude to the east or west than to the north or south; however, in general, eastern Bering Sea shelf populations shifted southward in response to the increasing cold pool size, and after accounting for differences in temperature and population abundance, there was still a temporal northward shift in populations over the last three decades despite the recent cooling trend. Model results for local and shelf-wide indices showed that survey time lag and cold pool extent had a greater effect on spatial distribution than population abundance, suggesting that density-independent mechanisms play a major role in shaping distribution patterns on the eastern Bering Sea shelf. The area enclosed by the 1. ??C isotherm most commonly affects both local and shelf-wide spatial indices suggesting that 1. ??C is a more important boundary for describing temperature preferences of eastern Bering Sea bottom fishes and crabs than is the 2. ??C isotherm used for designating the physical boundary for the cold pool. ?? 2013.},
author = {Kotwicki, Stan and Lauth, Robert R.},
doi = {10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.03.017},
file = {:C\:/Users/sean.rohan/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Kotwicki, Lauth - 2013 - Detecting temporal trends and environmentally-driven changes in the spatial distribution of bottom fishes and c.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {0967-0645},
issn = {09670645},
journal = {Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography},
keywords = {Bering Sea shelf,Bottom fish,Cold pool,Crab,Population shift,Spatial distribution},
pages = {231--243},
title = {{Detecting temporal trends and environmentally-driven changes in the spatial distribution of bottom fishes and crabs on the eastern Bering Sea shelf}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.03.017},
volume = {94},
year = {2013}
}

@article{Mueter2008,
author = {Mueter, Franz J. and Litzow, Michael A.},
file = {:C\:/Users/sean.rohan/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Mueter, Litzow - 2008 - Sea ice retreat alters the biogeography of the Bering Sea continental shelf.pdf:pdf},
journal = {Ecological Applications},
keywords = {a northward migration of,and,arctic-subarctic ecotone on continental,benthic fauna,bering sea,biogeography,climate change,cold pool,continental she,global warming has been,just as,most dramatic in arctic,shelves,should therefore lead to,the},
mendeley-groups = {ATF versus Kam},
number = {2},
pages = {309--320},
title = {{Sea ice retreat alters the biogeography of the Bering Sea continental shelf}},
volume = {18},
year = {2008}
}


@phdthesis{Rohan2022,
author = {Rohan, Sean K. and Barnett, Lewis A.K. and Charriere, Nicole},
school = {United States Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memorandum},
title = {{Evaluating approaches to estimating mean temperatures and cold pool area from AFSC bottom trawl surveys of the eastern Bering Sea}}
}

@article{Spencer2016,
author = {Spencer, Paul D and Holsman, Kirstin K and Zador, Stephani and Bond, Nicholas A and Mueter, Franz J and Hollowed, Anne B and Ianelli, James N},
doi = {10.1093/icesjms/fsw040},
file = {:C\:/Users/sean.rohan/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Spencer et al. - 2016 - Modelling spatially dependent predation mortality of eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock, and its implications fo.pdf:pdf;:C\:/Users/sean.rohan/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Spencer et al. - 2016 - Modelling spatially dependent predation mortality of eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock, and its implications(2).pdf:pdf},
journal = {ICES Journal of Marine Science},
keywords = {arrowtooth flounder,bering sea,climate change,downscaling,forecasting,functional response,predation,recruitment,spatial overlap,statistical,walleye pollock},
number = {5},
pages = {1330--1342},
title = {{Modelling spatially dependent predation mortality of eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock, and its implications for stock dynamics under future climate scenarios}},
volume = {73},
year = {2016}
}


@article{Stevenson2019,
abstract = {The climate regime in the eastern Bering Sea has recently been dominated by a pattern of multi-year stanzas, in which several successive years of minimal sea-ice formation and warm summer temperatures (e.g., 2002-2005, 2014-2017) alternate with several years of relatively extensive sea-ice formation and cold summer temperatures (e.g., 2006-2013). This emerging climate pattern may be forcing long-term changes in the spatial distributions of the Bering Sea's marine fauna. The National Marine Fisheries Service's Alaska Fisheries Science Center recently conducted two bottom trawl surveys covering the entire Bering Sea shelf from the Alaska Peninsula to the Bering Strait. The first, in the summer of 2010, was conducted during a cold year when the majority of the continental shelf was covered by a pool of cold (< 2 °C) water. The second, in the summer of 2017, was during a warmer year with water temperatures above the long-term survey mean. These two surveys recorded significantly different spatial distributions for populations of several commercially important fish species, including walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus), and several flatfish species, as well as jellyfishes. Population shifts included latitudinal displacement as well as variable recruitment success. The large-scale distributional shifts reported here for high-biomass species raise questions about long-term ecosystem impacts, and highlight the need for continued monitoring. They also raise questions about our management strategies for these and other species in Alaska's large marine ecosystems.},
author = {Stevenson, Duane E. and Lauth, Robert R.},
doi = {10.1007/s00300-018-2431-1},
file = {:C\:/Users/sean.rohan/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Stevenson, Lauth - 2019 - Bottom trawl surveys in the northern Bering Sea indicate recent shifts in the distribution of marine species.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {07224060},
journal = {Polar Biology},
keywords = {Arctic,Biogeography,Climate shift,Cold pool},
number = {2},
pages = {407--421},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Bottom trawl surveys in the northern Bering Sea indicate recent shifts in the distribution of marine species}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-018-2431-1},
volume = {42},
year = {2019}
}

@article{Thorson2020,
abstract = {Multivariate data reduction techniques are widely used to describe modes of variability in atmospheric and oceanographic conditions for the world's oceans. Dominant modes of variability such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are typically defined as a statistical summary of physical measurements, and include both principle components representing modes of variability over time, and an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) giving the spatial pattern associated with a positive or negative phase for each mode. Typically, these indices are compared with biological conditions to describe or predict physical drivers of ecological dynamics. In some circumstances, however, it may instead be useful to apply EOF analysis directly to biological measurements, estimating indices of biological variability as well as maps of biological response associated with each index. We therefore develop a generalization of EOF analysis that can be applied directly to multispecies biological samples using a multivariate spatio-temporal model. These biologically derived indices can then be compared with relevant indices derived from physical data, or used as covariates in spatially-varying coefficient models. We first show that a spatio-temporal model can replicate previous EOF estimates of the PDO and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. We then identify three axes of variability in the eastern Bering Sea using biomass-sampling data for fourteen bottom-associated fishes and decapod crustaceans from 1982 to 2017. The first axis represents habitat preferences that are stable over time, and the second represents a multi-decadal trend in distribution for most species; for example, showing an increasing density for Alaska skate and arrowtooth flounder in the middle and inner domain. Finally, the third axis shows high interannual variability from 1982 to 1998 switching to multiyear stanzas from 1999 to 2017 and is highly correlated (0.87) with the extent of the cold bottom temperatures in this region and associated impacts on Alaska pollock and Pacific cod. These axes represent ecological dynamics for adult fishes and therefore integrate the impact of bottom-up and top-down processes, and they also confirm the importance of cold-pool extent for fish distribution in the Bering Sea while visualizing its varied impact on individual species. Moreover, this spatio-temporal approach allows oceanographers to define annual indices representing modes of variability in diverse biological communities from widely available field-sampling data.},
author = {Thorson, James T. and Ciannelli, Lorenzo and Litzow, Michael A.},
doi = {10.1016/j.pocean.2019.102244},
file = {:C\:/Users/sean.rohan/Downloads/1-s2.0-S0079661119304240-main (1).pdf:pdf},
issn = {00796611},
journal = {Progress in Oceanography},
keywords = {Bottom trawl,Eastern Bering Sea,Empirical orthogonal function,Sea-ice extent,Vector autoregressive spatio-temporal model},
number = {102244},
title = {{Defining indices of ecosystem variability using biological samples of fish communities: A generalization of empirical orthogonal functions}},
volume = {181},
year = {2020}
}