CMPSRef.bib

@book{huang_wartime_2016,
	title = {The {Wartime} {Origins} of {Democratization}: {Civil} {War}, {Rebel} {Governance}, and {Political} {Regimes}},
	isbn = {978-1-107-16671-4},
	shorttitle = {The {Wartime} {Origins} of {Democratization}},
	abstract = {Why do some countries emerge from civil war more democratic than when they entered into it, while others remain staunchly autocratic? Observers widely depict internal conflict as a pathway to autocracy or state failure, but in fact there is variation in post-civil war regimes. Conventional accounts focus on war outcomes and international peacebuilding, but Huang suggests that postwar regimes have wartime origins, notably in how rebel groups interact with ordinary people as part of war-making. War can have mobilizing effects when rebels engage extensively with civilian populations, catalyzing a bottom-up force for change toward greater political rights. Politics after civil war does not emerge from a blank slate, but reflects the war's institutional and social legacies. The Wartime Origins of Democratization explores these ideas through an original dataset of rebel governance and rigorous comparative case analysis. The findings have far-reaching implications for understanding wartime political orders, statebuilding, and international peacebuilding.},
	language = {en},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Huang, Reyko},
	month = oct,
	year = {2016},
	note = {Google-Books-ID: lBviDAAAQBAJ},
	keywords = {Political Science / Comparative Politics, Political Science / General, Political Science / International Relations / General, Political Science / Political Ideologies / Democracy, Reference / Research}
}

@article{berman_religion_2008,
	title = {Religion, terrorism and public goods: {Testing} the club model},
	volume = {92},
	abstract = {Can rational models, once theological explanations are discredited, explain why certain radical religious rebels are so successful in perpetrating suicide attacks? The fundamental barrier to success turns out not to be recruiting suicide attackers; there is a rational basis for volunteering. Rather, the barrier is the danger of other operatives defecting. A club model, portraying voluntary religious organizations as efficient providers of local public goods, explains how they weed out potential defectors by requiring sacrifices as signals of commitment. They are thereby able to succeed in risky terrorist attacks. The model has testable implications for tactic choice and damage achieved by clubs and other rebel organizations. Data spanning a half-century on both terrorists and civil war insurgents, much from Middle East sources and Israel/Palestine, reveal that: a) missions organized by radical religious clubs that provide benign local public goods are both more lethal and are more likely to be suicide attacks than missions organized by other terrorist groups with similar aims and theologies; and b) suicide attacks are chosen when targets are “hard,” i.e., difficult to destroy. Our results suggest benign tactics to counter radical religious terrorism and insurgency.},
	number = {10},
	urldate = {2019-05-10},
	journal = {Journal of Public Economics},
	author = {Berman, Eli and Laitin, David D.},
	year = {2008},
	pages = {1942--1967},
	file = {Religion, terrorism and public goods\: Testing the club model - ScienceDirect:C\:\\Users\\Megan\\Zotero\\storage\\MLTI4SFG\\S0047272708000595.html:text/html}
}

@article{clark_mass_2016,
	title = {Mass {Mobilization} {Protest} {Data}},
	journal = {Cambridge: Harvard Dataverse.[Google Scholar]},
	author = {Clark, David and Regan, Patrick},
	year = {2016}
}

@article{hartzell_institutionalizing_2008,
	title = {Institutionalizing {Peace}: {Power} {Sharing} and {Post} {Civil} {War} {Conflict} {Management}},
	volume = {47},
	abstract = {This article examines how power‐sharing institutions might best be designed to stabilize the transition to enduring peace among former adversaries following the negotiated settlement of civil wars. We identify four different forms of power sharing based on whether the intent of the policy is to share or divide power among rivals along its political, territorial, military, or economic dimension. Employing the statistical methodology of survival analysis to examine the 38 civil wars resolved via the process of negotiations between 1945 and 1998, we find that the more dimensions of power sharing among former combatants specified in a peace agreement the higher is the likelihood that peace will endure. We suggest that this relationship obtains because of the unique capacity of power‐sharing institutions to foster a sense of security among former enemies and encourage conditions conducive to a self‐enforcing peace.},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2019-05-10},
	journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Hartzell, Caroline and Hoddie, Matthew},
	year = {2008},
	pages = {318--332},
	file = {Institutionalizing Peace\: Power Sharing and Post‐Civil War Conflict Management - Hartzell - 2003 - American Journal of Political Science - Wiley Online Library:C\:\\Users\\Megan\\Zotero\\storage\\BJSDBAPI\\1540-5907.html:text/html}
}

@article{keels_oil_nodate,
	title = {Oil {Wealth}, {Post}-conflict {Elections}, and {Postwar} {Peace} {Failure}},
	volume = {61},
	abstract = {New research has emerged that suggests there is a troubling relationship between elections and civil wars; primarily, elections increase the risk of civil war recurrence. I investigate this relationship further by examining the economic factors associated with the connection between postwar elections and peace failure. Specifically, how does the presence of oil wealth impact the risk posed by postwar elections. Drawing on previous findings in the democratization literature, I suggest the immobility of oil wealth dramatically increases the stakes associated with postwar elections. As postwar elites use irregular electioneering to consolidate their control of oil revenue, it increases the incentives for postwar opposition to use violence as a means to achieve their objectives. Using post-civil war data from 1945 to 2005, I demonstrate that postwar elections that occur in oil-rich economies dramatically decrease the durability of postwar peace. Once controlling for petro elections, though, I demonstrate that subsequent postwar elections actually increase the durability of postwar peace.},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2019-05-10},
	journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	author = {Keels, Eric},
	pages = {1021--1045},
	file = {Oil Wealth, Post-conflict Elections, and Postwar Peace Failure - Eric Keels, 2017:C\:\\Users\\Megan\\Zotero\\storage\\REH2BN6T\\0022002715595702.html:text/html}
}

@misc{noauthor_zotero_nodate,
	title = {Zotero {\textbar} {Downloads}},
	url = {https://www.zotero.org/download/},
	urldate = {2019-05-10},
	file = {Zotero | Downloads:C\:\\Users\\Megan\\Zotero\\storage\\ZIBHPJ8C\\download.html:text/html}
}

@book{jarstad_war_2008,
	title = {From {War} to {Democracy}: {Dilemmas} of {Peacebuilding}},
	isbn = {978-1-139-47095-7},
	shorttitle = {From {War} to {Democracy}},
	abstract = {Attempts to introduce democracy in the wake of civil war face a critical problem: how can war-torn societies move towards peace and democracy when competitive politics and hard-fought elections exacerbate social and political conflict? Through a study of six themes (peacekeeping, management of violence, power sharing, political party transformation, elections, civil society and international reactions to democratization crises) this volume considers the dilemmas that arise in pursuing peace after civil war through processes of democratization. The contributors' research highlights the complex relationship between democratization, which is competitive, and peacebuilding or efforts to achieve reconciliation. The book offers insights into more effective action in peacebuilding in light of the short-term negative effects that democratization can introduce. It is a thought-provoking work that seeks both to advance theory and to provide policy-relevant findings to facilitate more effective and durable transitions from war to democracy.},
	language = {en},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Jarstad, Anna K. and Sisk, Timothy D.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2008},
	note = {Google-Books-ID: DGt8SpelcaAC},
	keywords = {Law / International, Political Science / Comparative Politics, Political Science / International Relations / General, Social Science / Sociology / General}
}

@article{letsa_voting_2017,
	title = {Voting for peace, mobilizing for war: post-conflict voter turnout and civil war recurrence},
	volume = {24},
	abstract = {In democratic elections around the world, high levels of voter turnout are frequently praised as a sign of democratic legitimacy and consolidation. However, while popular participation should be lauded in many circumstances, under certain conditions it can also have nefarious side effects. In post-conflict countries, high levels of voter turnout may make it easier for militants to return to arms because everyday people are invested in the political process and the electoral outcome. Through the use of survival modelling, this study finds that voter turnout is positively correlated with civil war recidivism in post-conflict first elections. Even when elections are not particularly contentious or when structural factors (such as level of development) are auspicious, voter turnout continues to have a positive and statistically significant relationship with recidivism.},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2019-05-10},
	journal = {Democratization},
	author = {Letsa, Natalie Wenzell},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {425--433},
	file = {Voting for peace, mobilizing for war\: post-conflict voter turnout and civil war recurrence\: Democratization\: Vol 24, No 3:C\:\\Users\\Megan\\Zotero\\storage\\RE254H4C\\13510347.2016.html:text/html}
}

@misc{noauthor_voting_nodate,
	title = {Voting for peace, mobilizing for war: post-conflict voter turnout and civil war recurrence: {Democratization}: {Vol} 24, {No} 3},
	urldate = {2019-05-10},
	file = {Voting for peace, mobilizing for war\: post-conflict voter turnout and civil war recurrence\: Democratization\: Vol 24, No 3:C\:\\Users\\Megan\\Zotero\\storage\\BV6RPYNJ\\13510347.2016.html:text/html}
}

@article{mukherjee_why_2006,
	title = {Why {Political} {Power}-{Sharing} {Agreements} {Lead} to {Enduring} {Peaceful} {Resolution} of {Some} {Civil} {Wars}, {But} {Not} {Others}?},
	volume = {50},
	issn = {0020-8833, 1468-2478},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1468-2478.2006.00410.x},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2019-05-10},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Mukherjee, Bumba},
	month = jun,
	year = {2006},
	pages = {479--504},
	file = {Mukherjee - 2006 - Why Political Power-Sharing Agreements Lead to End.pdf:C\:\\Users\\Megan\\Zotero\\storage\\JFACN2D8\\Mukherjee - 2006 - Why Political Power-Sharing Agreements Lead to End.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{ottmann_power-sharing_2015,
	title = {The {Power}-{Sharing} {Event} {Dataset} ({PSED}): {A} new dataset on the promises and practices of power-sharing in post-conflict countries {\textless}sup/{\textgreater}},
	volume = {32},
	issn = {0738-8942, 1549-9219},
	shorttitle = {The {Power}-{Sharing} {Event} {Dataset} ({PSED})},
	doi = {10.1177/0738894214542753},
	abstract = {Past research on the relationship between power-sharing arrangements and the recurrence of civil conflict has primarily analyzed the promises of power-sharing stipulated in peace agreements. What happens afterwards, however, has not yet been sufficiently explored. This represents a major research gap, as the actual practices of power-sharing in post-conflict countries are likely to be influential in the possibility of civil conflict recurring. To address this shortcoming, we present a new global dataset on the promises and practices of power-sharing between the government of a state and former rebels in post-conflict countries. The collected data captures if, when and how power-sharing institutions have been promised and/or put into place, and whether they have subsequently been modified or abolished. The dataset encompasses every peace agreement signed after the cessation of a civil conflict in the years between 1989 and 2006, and covers a five-year period after the signature of each of these agreements (unless violence recurred earlier). The unit of analysis is the government–rebel dyad during the post-conflict period and data is recorded in an event data format. A first analysis of the Power-Sharing Event Dataset (PSED) reveals that the effects of the promises of power-sharing on civil conflict recurrence follow a different logic than the effects of their practices. This finding emphasizes the necessity for in-depth analyses of postconflict situations for which the PSED provides the necessary data.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2019-05-10},
	journal = {Conflict Management and Peace Science},
	author = {Ottmann, Martin and Vüllers, Johannes},
	month = jul,
	year = {2015},
	pages = {327--350},
	file = {Ottmann and Vüllers - 2015 - The Power-Sharing Event Dataset (PSED) A new data.pdf:C\:\\Users\\Megan\\Zotero\\storage\\2IDUHN57\\Ottmann and Vüllers - 2015 - The Power-Sharing Event Dataset (PSED) A new data.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{stewart_civil_2018,
	title = {Civil {War} as {State}-{Making}: {Strategic} {Governance} in {Civil} {War}},
	volume = {72},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	shorttitle = {Civil {War} as {State}-{Making}},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818317000418},
	abstract = {Why do some rebel groups provide governance inclusively while most others do not? Some insurgencies divert critical financial and personnel resources to provide benefits to anyone, including nonsupporters (Karen National Union, Eritrean People’s Liberation Front). Other groups offer no services or limit their service provision to only those people who support, or are likely to support, the insurgency. The existing literature examines how insurgencies incentivize recruitment by offering selective social services, yet no research addresses why insurgencies provide goods inclusively. I argue that inclusive provision of services legitimates insurgents’ claim of sovereignty to domestic and international audiences, and thus is a strategic tool secessionist rebels use to achieve their long-term goal of independence. With new and original data, I use a large-N analysis to test this hypothesis. The results of the analysis support the hypothesis, underscoring the importance insurgent nonviolent behavior and addressing key issues such as sovereignty and governance.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2019-05-10},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Stewart, Megan A.},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {205--226},
	file = {Stewart - 2018 - Civil War as State-Making Strategic Governance in.pdf:C\:\\Users\\Megan\\Zotero\\storage\\YSF2UQEW\\Stewart - 2018 - Civil War as State-Making Strategic Governance in.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{terpstra_rebel_2017,
	title = {Rebel {Governance} and {Legitimacy}: {Understanding} the {Impact} of {Rebel} {Legitimation} on {Civilian} {Compliance} with the {LTTE} {Rule}},
	volume = {19},
	issn = {1369-8249},
	shorttitle = {Rebel {Governance} and {Legitimacy}},
	doi = {10.1080/13698249.2017.1393265},
	abstract = {Based on extensive fieldwork in Sri Lanka, we analyze how the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) acquired legitimacy and how legitimation impacts civilian perceptions of the rebels. Despite the LTTE’s reliance on coercion to induce compliance, civilians also supported the LTTE and their imagined state of Tamil Eelam voluntarily. Different LTTE strategies and acts helped creating legitimacy. Effective forms of legitimation were rooted in Tamil nationalism, tradition, charismatic leadership, sacrifices made by LTTE cadres and the people’s need for protection. However, the strong reformative socio-political agenda of the LTTE largely failed to engender legitimacy among the population.},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2019-05-10},
	journal = {Civil Wars},
	author = {Terpstra, Niels and Frerks, Georg},
	month = jul,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {279--307},
	file = {Full Text PDF:C\:\\Users\\Megan\\Zotero\\storage\\N3Z5RP82\\Terpstra and Frerks - 2017 - Rebel Governance and Legitimacy Understanding the.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\Megan\\Zotero\\storage\\V62B8HAL\\13698249.2017.html:text/html}
}

@article{wang_political_nodate,
	title = {Political trust, civic duty and voter turnout: {The} {Mediation} argument},
	volume = {53},
	abstract = {This study investigates whether civic duty mediates the effect of political trust on voter turnout. Specifically, this study outlines the relationship between political trust, civic duty and voter turnout by incorporating political trust into the rational choice model of turnout. Empirical evidence from Taiwan, the United States and the United Kingdom supports the mediation argument. This study consistently finds that political trust exerts a significant mediation effect on voter turnout through civic duty. Besides, this study also confirms a weak or no direct relationship between political trust and voter turnout. The findings imply that past studies have misestimated the impact of political trust on voter turnout and it is wrong if we simply assume a direct relationship between political trust and voter turnout, and do not think about other mechanisms between them. Therefore, we should treat the relationship between political trust and voter turnout more seriously and cautiously.},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2019-05-10},
	journal = {The Social Science Journal},
	author = {Wang, Ching-Hsing},
	pages = {291--300},
	file = {Political trust, civic duty and voter turnout\: The Mediation argument - ScienceDirect:C\:\\Users\\Megan\\Zotero\\storage\\TXNKRUNA\\S0362331916300192.html:text/html}
}

@article{clark_mass_2019,
	title = {Mass {Mobilization} {Protest} {Data}},
	volume = {V3},
	url = {https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/HTTWYL},
	doi = {10.7910/DVN/HTTWYL},
	abstract = {Mass Mobillization Data project protests against governments, all countries, 1990-2018.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2019-05-10},
	journal = {Harvard Dataverse},
	author = {Clark, David and Regan, Patrick},
	month = feb,
	year = {2019},
	note = {type: dataset}
}

@article{katkov_colombias_2016,
	title = {Colombia's {Congress} {Ratifies} {Second} {Peace} {Deal} {With} {Marxist} {Rebels}},
	url = {https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/12/01/503950505/colombias-congress-ratifies-second-peace-deal-with-marxist-rebels},
	abstract = {A peace agreement with the leftist rebel group FARC was narrowly rejected in a national referendum in October. This new deal was renegotiated and submitted to Colombia's Congress, bypassing voters.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2019-05-10},
	journal = {NPR.org},
	author = {Katkov, Mark},
	month = dec,
	year = {2016},
	file = {Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\Megan\\Zotero\\storage\\Q2P6KZL3\\colombias-congress-ratifies-second-peace-deal-with-marxist-rebels.html:text/html}
}

@article{shifter_will_2016,
	title = {Will {FARC} and {Colombia} {Return} to the {Battlefield}?},
	url = {https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/04/will-farc-and-colombia-return-to-the-battlefield-referendum-peace-santos-uribe/},
	abstract = {After a failed referendum, what comes next will determine whether war or peace breaks out.},
	urldate = {2019-05-10},
	journal = {Foreign Policy},
	author = {Shifter, Michael},
	month = oct,
	year = {2016},
	file = {Will FARC and Colombia Return to the Battlefield? – Foreign Policy:C\:\\Users\\Megan\\Zotero\\storage\\9FLLMTBK\\will-farc-and-colombia-return-to-the-battlefield-referendum-peace-santos-uribe.html:text/html}
}

@book{tarrow_power_2011,
	address = {New York},
	title = {Power in {Movement}: {Social} {Movements} and {Contentious} {Politics}},
	urldate = {2019-05-10},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Tarrow, Sidney},
	year = {2011},
	file = {Power in Movement\: Social Movements and Contentious Politics - Sidney G. Tarrow - Google Books:C\:\\Users\\Megan\\Zotero\\storage\\DDDRWCXL\\books.html:text/html}
}

@article{wiegink_former_2015,
	title = {Former {Military} {Networks} a {Threat} to {Peace}? {The} {Demobilisation} and {Remobilisation} of {Renamo} in {Central} {Mozambique}},
	copyright = {Open Access (free)},
	shorttitle = {Former {Military} {Networks} a {Threat} to {Peace}?},
	abstract = {Renamo’s recent upsurge against the Mozambican Frelimo-led government after 22 years of relative stability has challenged the country’s often celebrated disarmament, demobilization and reintegration process (1992–1994). Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork conducted in Maringue (Sofala province), the location of the rebels’ wartime headquarters and a post-war Renamo stronghold, this paper shows that while the DDR program supposedly ended Renamo’s command and control structure, the former rebel network continued to be a central feature of ex-combatants’ social worlds. Former Renamo combatants spend most of their time in the company of their ‘colleagues of the trenches’ and engaged in relationships of dependency with political Renamo leaders and former commanders. These relationships were not only shaped by the former military structure, but also by friendship, marriage, and patronage dynamics, providing ex-Renamo combatants with physical and economic safety, a sense of belonging and economic possibilities. Recent events in Mozambique suggest that the post-conflict continuation of informal wartime networks is a threat to peace and a failure of demobilization. Nevertheless, the fieldwork conducted in Maringue reveals that the dismantling of the command and control structure is often in vain, as it may be worthwhile for ex-combatants to maintain ties with their former military group for various reasons. Therefore, I argue that it may be useful to consider these networks based on the former armed group in processes of violence reduction, also in the development of DDR programs, as these may offer possibilities for the re-positioning and transformation of (former) armed actors.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2019-05-10},
	journal = {Stability : International Journal of Security and Development},
	author = {Wiegink, N.},
	year = {2015},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.5334/sta.gk},
	file = {Full Text PDF:C\:\\Users\\Megan\\Zotero\\storage\\83IL2JLH\\Wiegink - 2015 - Former Military Networks a Threat to Peace The De.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\Megan\\Zotero\\storage\\LN67WU5V\\326575.html:text/html}
}

@article{themner_former_2015,
	title = {Former {Military} {Networks} and the {Micro}-{Politics} of {Violence} and {Statebuilding} in {Liberia}},
	volume = {47},
	abstract = {Recent studies have highlighted the inability of disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration programs to dismantle command structures in the aftermath of civil war. The effect that lingering military networks have on peace, however, is ambiguous. Therefore, a key question—which has so far been unanswered—is why some ex-military networks are remobilized for violent purposes while others are used for more productive ones, such as income-generating activities. In this article, I seek to address this question by comparing two former mid-level commanders (ex-MiLCs) in Liberia and the networks that they control. Based on this comparison I argue that it is ex-MiLCs who are shunned by governing elites as peacetime brokers of patronage—distributing economic resources to ex-fighters—that are most likely to remobilize their ex-combatant networks.},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2019-05-10},
	journal = {Comparative Politics},
	author = {Themner, Anders},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {334--353},
	file = {Former Military Networks and the Micro-Politics of Violence and S...\: Ingenta Connect:C\:\\Users\\Megan\\Zotero\\storage\\5FQ73TV6\\art00006.html:text/html}
}

@book{feeney_sinn_2003,
	title = {Sinn {Feín}: {A} {Hundred} {Turbulent} {Years}},
	isbn = {978-0-299-18674-6},
	shorttitle = {Sinn {Feín}},
	abstract = {A devout young boy in rural Ohio, Andrew Evans had his life mapped for him: baptism, mission, Brigham Young University, temple marriage, and children of his own. But as an awkward gay kid, bullied and bored, he escaped into the glossy pages of National Geographic and the wide promise of the world atlas. The Black Penguin is Evans's memoir, travel tale, and love story of his eventual journey to the farthest reaches of the map, a wild yet touching adventure across some of the most astonishing landscapes on Earth. Ejected from church and shunned by his family as a young man, Evans embarks on an ambitious overland journey halfway across the world. Riding public transportation, he crosses swamps, deserts, mountains, and jungles, slowly approaching his lifelong dream and ultimate goal: Antarctica. With each new mile comes laughter, pain, unexpected friendship, true weirdness, unsettling realities, and some hair-raising moments that eventually lead to a singular discovery on a remote beach at the bottom of the world. Evans's 12,000-mile voyage becomes a soulful quest to balance faith, family, and self, reminding us that, in the end, our lives are defined by the roads we take, the places we touch, and those we hold nearest.},
	language = {en},
	publisher = {Univ of Wisconsin Press},
	author = {Feeney, Brian},
	year = {2003},
	note = {Google-Books-ID: auFPrAmS6mYC},
	keywords = {History / Europe / Ireland, Political Science / Comparative Politics, Political Science / Political Process / Political Parties}
}

@article{moriarty_sinn_2008,
	title = {Sinn {Fein} {Parade} {Protest} {Gets} {Approval}},
	journal = {The Irish Times},
	author = {Moriarty, Gerry},
	month = oct,
	year = {2008}
}

@article{carter_back_2010,
	title = {Back to the {Future}: {Modeling} {Time} {Dependence} in {Binary} {Data}},
	volume = {18},
	issn = {1047-1987, 1476-4989},
	shorttitle = {Back to the {Future}},
	doi = {10.1093/pan/mpq013},
	abstract = {Since Beck, Katz, and Tucker (1998), the standard method for modeling time dependence in binary data has been to incorporate time dummies or splined time in logistic regressions. Although we agree with the need for modeling time dependence, we demonstrate that time dummies can induce estimation problems due to separation. Splines do not suffer from these problems. However, the complexity of splines has led substantive researchers (1) to use knot values that may be inappropriate for their data and (2) to ignore any substantive discussion concerning temporal dependence. We propose a relatively simple alternative: including t, t
2, and t
3 in the regression. This cubic polynomial approximation is trivial to implement—and, therefore, interpret—and it avoids problems such as quasi-complete separation. Monte Carlo analysis demonstrates that, for the types of hazards one often sees in substantive research, the polynomial approximation always outperforms time dummies and generally performs as well as splines or even more flexible autosmoothing procedures. Due to its simplicity, this method also accommodates nonproportional hazards in a straightforward way. We reanalyze Crowley and Skocpol (2001) using nonproportional hazards and find new empirical support for the historical-institutionalist perspective.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2019-05-10},
	journal = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Carter, David B. and Signorino, Curtis S.},
	year = {2010},
	pages = {271--292},
	file = {Full Text PDF:C\:\\Users\\Megan\\Zotero\\storage\\MHIJG8SK\\Carter and Signorino - 2010 - Back to the Future Modeling Time Dependence in Bi.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\Megan\\Zotero\\storage\\XAG4UWS7\\9E4BCC2A63726C4ECD63F236C49AF9FA.html:text/html}
}