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add Bayesian workflow
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04_probability_distributions.ipynb

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"cell_type": "markdown",
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"metadata": {},
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"source": [
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"## Measuring distances btween distributions\n",
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"## Measuring distances between distributions\n",
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"\n",
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"There are several ways to measure distances between two probability distributions with PDFs $p(x)$ and $q(x)$, each with its own characteristics and applications. \n",
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"\n",

05_Bayesian_inference.ipynb

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"\n",
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"What does it take?\n",
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"\n",
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"- <font color='red'>`Data`</font>\n",
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"- A generative model (how does the conditional <font color='teal'>`likelihood`</font> come about?)\n",
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"- Our <font color='purple'>`beliefs`</font> before seeing the data.\n",
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"- Data,\n",
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"- A generative model,\n",
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"- Our beliefs before seeing the data.\n",
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"\n",
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"What does it make?\n",
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"\n",

09_intro_to_Numpyro.ipynb

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"`````{admonition} Task: Point estimates for Bernoulli-beta coin flips\n",
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":class: tip\n",
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"- You might have correctly noticed that we have not looked at the `Predictive` capability. Study the documentation of Numpyro (in particular, `numpyro.infer`) and demonstrate the `Predictive` command on the example shown above.\n",
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"- Study the documentation of Numpyro (in particular, `numpyro.diagnostics`) to undertand what the `hpdi` command does. Apply it to the example shown above.\n",
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"- Study the documentation of Numpyro (in particular, `numpyro.diagnostics`) to understand what the `hpdi` command does. Apply it to the example shown above.\n",
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"`````"
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]
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11_Bayesian_workflow.ipynb

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999_acknowledgements.md

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## Acknowledgements and links
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- AIMS and Ulrich personally for the invitation
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- [Machine Learning and Global Health](mlgh.net/people) network for many things, but in particular for the (virtual, at the time) space where I learnt Numpyro through a reading group together with some MLGH members: Swapnil Mishra, Iwona Hawryluk, Tim Wolock, Theo Rashid, Giovanni Charles
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- [Deep Learning Indaba](https://deeplearningindaba.com/) for showing me how much ML enthisuams there is on the African continent and making me want to contribute
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- Co-authors of the paper [Bayesian workflow for disease transmission modeling in Stan](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/sim.9164) and all particiapnts of the regular Thursday Stan call which enabled me to co-author
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- Lorenzo Ciardo from Kellogg College at Oxford for telling me about the Buffon's needle problem
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- Richard McEarlth for posting the [prior-likelihood conflict example](https://twitter.com/rlmcelreath/status/1701165075493470644)

_toc.yml

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- file: 08_PPLs.ipynb
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- file: 09_intro_to_Numpyro.ipynb
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- file: 10_focus_on_priors.ipynb
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- file: 11_Bayesian_workflow.ipynb
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- file: 999_acknowledgements.md

assets/bayes_workflow.png

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assets/boxes_loop.png

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