Seats | Voting Intentions | Technical Information
| Group | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| European People’s Party | 188 | 183 | 178–188 | 176–190 | 175–191 | 173–193 |
| Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats | 136 | 139 | 135–144 | 134–145 | 133–146 | 131–148 |
| Patriots for Europe | 84 | 92 | 89–95 | 88–96 | 87–97 | 86–98 |
| European Conservatives and Reformists | 78 | 81 | 77–84 | 76–85 | 75–86 | 73–88 |
| Renew Europe | 77 | 72 | 69–75 | 68–76 | 67–77 | 66–79 |
| European United Left–Nordic Green Left | 46 | 45 | 41–48 | 41–49 | 40–50 | 38–52 |
| Greens–European Free Alliance | 53 | 40 | 36–44 | 35–45 | 34–46 | 33–48 |
| Non-Inscrits | 32 | 31 | 28–33 | 27–34 | 26–35 | 25–36 |
| Europe of Sovereign Nations | 25 | 27 | 25–29 | 24–30 | 23–31 | 22–32 |
| Parties currently not represented in the EP | 1 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the European People’s Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 173 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 174 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 175 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 176 | 2% | 97% | |
| 177 | 3% | 95% | |
| 178 | 5% | 91% | |
| 179 | 6% | 87% | |
| 180 | 8% | 81% | |
| 181 | 9% | 73% | |
| 182 | 10% | 64% | |
| 183 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 184 | 10% | 45% | |
| 185 | 9% | 35% | |
| 186 | 7% | 27% | |
| 187 | 6% | 19% | |
| 188 | 5% | 13% | Last Result |
| 189 | 3% | 9% | |
| 190 | 2% | 5% | |
| 191 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 192 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 194 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% |
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 132 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 133 | 2% | 98% | |
| 134 | 3% | 96% | |
| 135 | 5% | 92% | |
| 136 | 7% | 87% | Last Result |
| 137 | 9% | 80% | |
| 138 | 11% | 71% | |
| 139 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 140 | 11% | 48% | |
| 141 | 10% | 37% | |
| 142 | 9% | 26% | |
| 143 | 7% | 18% | |
| 144 | 5% | 11% | |
| 145 | 3% | 7% | |
| 146 | 2% | 4% | |
| 147 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% |
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Patriots for Europe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 85 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 87 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 88 | 5% | 97% | |
| 89 | 8% | 93% | |
| 90 | 13% | 84% | |
| 91 | 16% | 72% | |
| 92 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 93 | 15% | 39% | |
| 94 | 11% | 24% | |
| 95 | 7% | 13% | |
| 96 | 4% | 6% | |
| 97 | 2% | 3% | |
| 98 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% |
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the European Conservatives and Reformists page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 75 | 2% | 98% | |
| 76 | 4% | 96% | |
| 77 | 7% | 92% | |
| 78 | 10% | 85% | Last Result |
| 79 | 12% | 76% | |
| 80 | 13% | 64% | |
| 81 | 14% | 50% | Median |
| 82 | 12% | 37% | |
| 83 | 10% | 25% | |
| 84 | 7% | 15% | |
| 85 | 4% | 8% | |
| 86 | 2% | 4% | |
| 87 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renew Europe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 68 | 4% | 97% | |
| 69 | 8% | 93% | |
| 70 | 12% | 85% | |
| 71 | 15% | 73% | |
| 72 | 16% | 58% | Median |
| 73 | 14% | 42% | |
| 74 | 11% | 28% | |
| 75 | 7% | 17% | |
| 76 | 4% | 9% | |
| 77 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 78 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Greens–European Free Alliance page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 35 | 3% | 97% | |
| 36 | 6% | 94% | |
| 37 | 9% | 88% | |
| 38 | 12% | 78% | |
| 39 | 13% | 66% | |
| 40 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 41 | 11% | 40% | |
| 42 | 9% | 29% | |
| 43 | 8% | 20% | |
| 44 | 6% | 12% | |
| 45 | 4% | 7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 3% | |
| 47 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the European United Left–Nordic Green Left page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 40 | 3% | 98% | |
| 41 | 5% | 95% | |
| 42 | 9% | 90% | |
| 43 | 12% | 81% | |
| 44 | 15% | 69% | |
| 45 | 15% | 54% | Median |
| 46 | 13% | 39% | Last Result |
| 47 | 10% | 25% | |
| 48 | 7% | 15% | |
| 49 | 4% | 8% | |
| 50 | 2% | 4% | |
| 51 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europe of Sovereign Nations page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 24 | 6% | 97% | |
| 25 | 13% | 91% | Last Result |
| 26 | 19% | 78% | |
| 27 | 21% | 59% | Median |
| 28 | 18% | 37% | |
| 29 | 11% | 20% | |
| 30 | 6% | 9% | |
| 31 | 2% | 3% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Non-Inscrits page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 26 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 27 | 5% | 97% | |
| 28 | 9% | 92% | |
| 29 | 14% | 83% | |
| 30 | 18% | 69% | |
| 31 | 18% | 52% | Median |
| 32 | 15% | 33% | Last Result |
| 33 | 10% | 18% | |
| 34 | 5% | 8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parties currently not represented in the EP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 42% | 81% | Median |
| 3 | 31% | 39% | |
| 4 | 8% | 8% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| European People’s Party | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Patriots for Europe | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| European Conservatives and Reformists | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Renew Europe | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Greens–European Free Alliance | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| European United Left–Nordic Green Left | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Europe of Sovereign Nations | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Non-Inscrits | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Parties currently not represented in the EP | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
The seat and voting intentions projection for the European Parliament presented on this page was based on the averages of the most recent polls for the following countries:
| Country | No of Seats | No of Constituencies | Method | Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria ⁰ | 19 | 1 | D'Hondt | 4% |
| Belgium: Flanders | 12 | 1 | D'Hondt | No |
| Belgium: French Community ⁰ | 8 | 1 | D'Hondt | No |
| Belgium: German-speaking constituency¹ | 1 | 1 | D'Hondt | No |
| Bulgaria | 17 | 1 | Hare-Niemeyer | 5% |
| Croatia ⁰ | 12 | 1 | D'Hondt | 5% |
| Cyprus ⁰ | 6 | 1 | Hare-Niemeyer | No |
| Czech Republic ⁰ | 21 | 1 | D'Hondt | 5% |
| Denmark | 14 | 1 | D'Hondt | No |
| Estonia | 7 | 1 | D'Hondt | No |
| Finland | 14 | 1 | D'Hondt | No |
| France ⁰ | 79 | 1 | D'Hondt | 5% |
| Germany | 96 | 1 | Sainte-Laguë | No |
| Greece | 21 | 1 | Droop | 3% |
| Hungary | 21 | 1 | D'Hondt | No |
| Ireland | 13 | 3 | Single transferable vote² | N/A |
| Italy ⁰ | 76 | 1 | Hare-Niemeyer | 4% |
| Latvia | 8 | 1 | Sainte-Laguë | 5% |
| Lithuania ⁰ | 11 | 1 | Hare–Niemeyer | 5% |
| Luxembourg | 6 | 1 | D'Hondt | No |
| Malta ⁰ | 6 | 1 | Single transferable vote² | N/A |
| Netherlands ⁰ | 29 | 1 | D'Hondt | 1/26 |
| Poland ⁰ | 52 | 1 | D'Hondt | 5% |
| Portugal | 21 | 1 | D'Hondt | No |
| Romania | 33 | 1 | D'Hondt | 5% |
| Slovakia | 14 | 1 | Hagenbach-Bischoff | 5% |
| Slovenia | 8 | 1 | D'Hondt | 5% |
| Spain | 59 | 1 | D'Hondt | No |
| Sweden | 21 | 1 | Modified Sainte-Laguë | 4% |
| Total | 705 | 31 |
¹ No new opinion polls reported since the last European election; the results from the last European election are therefore used in the current projection for the European election.
² Implemented as D'Hondt.