The following file is a valid poll file for a Flemish poll. It is based on the results of a poll conducted between 22 February and 9 March 2016 by TNS Media for De Standaard and VRT.
Area=BE-VLG
Type=Election
==
N-VA=274
CD&V=192
Open Vld=142
sp.a=148
Groen=117
Vlaams Belang=81
PVDA=40
Other=11
The following call will use the poll file to run an analysis, provided it has been saved as 2016-03-09-DeStandaard-VRT.poll.
sapor analyze 2016-03-09-DeStandaard-VRT.poll
For this file, the log will look like below.
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Analyzing as a set of dichotomies...
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
CD&V 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
Groen 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
N-VA 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
Open Vld 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
PVDA 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
Vlaams Belang 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
sp.a 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
Other 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 33.3%.
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Number of data points: 3.
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
N-VA 27.8% 22.2%– 33.3% 100.0%
CD&V 16.7% 11.1%– 22.2% 100.0%
Groen 16.7% 11.1%– 22.2% 100.0%
Open Vld 16.7% 11.1%– 22.2% 100.0%
sp.a 16.7% 11.1%– 22.2% 100.0%
PVDA 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
Vlaams Belang 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
Other 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 11.1%.
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Number of data points: 9.
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
N-VA 27.8% 22.2%– 29.6% 100.0%
CD&V 20.4% 14.8%– 22.2% 100.0%
Groen 13.0% 7.4%– 14.8% 100.0%
Open Vld 13.0% 11.1%– 18.5% 100.0%
sp.a 13.0% 11.1%– 18.5% 100.0%
Vlaams Belang 9.3% 7.4%– 11.1% 100.0%
PVDA 5.6% 3.7%– 7.4% 99.9%
Other 1.9% 0.0%– 3.7% 0.0%
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.70%.
2016-03-25 08:57:05 INFO: Number of data points: 27.
2016-03-25 08:57:06 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
N-VA 27.8% 24.7%– 30.9% 100.0%
CD&V 19.1% 16.0%– 22.2% 100.0%
Open Vld 14.2% 11.1%– 17.3% 100.0%
sp.a 14.2% 12.3%– 17.3% 100.0%
Groen 11.7% 9.9%– 14.8% 100.0%
Vlaams Belang 8.0% 6.2%– 9.9% 100.0%
PVDA 4.3% 2.5%– 6.2% 5.9%
Other 0.6% 0.0%– 2.5% 0.0%
2016-03-25 08:57:06 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.23%.
2016-03-25 08:57:06 INFO: Number of data points: 81.
2016-03-25 08:57:08 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
N-VA 27.4% 24.3%– 30.5% 100.0%
CD&V 19.1% 16.5%– 21.8% 100.0%
sp.a 14.6% 12.3%– 17.3% 100.0%
Open Vld 14.2% 11.9%– 16.5% 100.0%
Groen 11.7% 9.5%– 14.0% 100.0%
Vlaams Belang 8.0% 6.2%– 10.3% 100.0%
PVDA 3.9% 2.9%– 5.8% 8.4%
Other 1.0% 0.4%– 2.1% 0.0%
2016-03-25 08:57:09 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.412%.
2016-03-25 08:57:09 INFO: Number of data points: 243.
2016-03-25 08:57:15 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
N-VA 27.2% 24.6%– 30.2% 100.0%
CD&V 19.1% 16.7%– 21.7% 100.0%
sp.a 14.7% 12.6%– 17.1% 100.0%
Open Vld 14.2% 12.1%– 16.5% 100.0%
Groen 11.6% 9.7%– 13.9% 100.0%
Vlaams Belang 8.0% 6.4%– 10.0% 100.0%
PVDA 4.0% 2.9%– 5.5% 8.7%
Other 1.0% 0.5%– 2.1% 0.0%
2016-03-25 08:57:16 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.137%.
2016-03-25 08:57:16 INFO: Number of data points: 729.
2016-03-25 08:57:37 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥5%)
N-VA 27.3% 24.6%– 30.1% 100.0%
CD&V 19.1% 16.8%– 21.7% 100.0%
sp.a 14.7% 12.7%– 17.1% 100.0%
Open Vld 14.2% 12.1%– 16.5% 100.0%
Groen 11.6% 9.8%– 13.8% 100.0%
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 6.5%– 9.9% 100.0%
PVDA 4.0% 2.9%– 5.4% 7.8%
Other 1.1% 0.6%– 2.0% 0.0%
2016-03-25 08:57:40 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.046%.
2016-03-25 08:57:40 INFO: Number of data points: 2,187.
2016-03-25 08:57:43 INFO: Analyzing as a polychotomy...
2016-03-25 08:57:45 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
N-VA 27.3% 10.6% 20.8% 20.8%– 20.9% 100.0% 39– 39
CD&V 19.1% 6.9% 13.6% 13.6%– 13.6% 100.0% 27– 27
sp.a 14.7% 5.0% 9.9% 9.9%– 9.9% 100.0% 19– 19
Open Vld 14.1% 4.8% 9.4% 9.4%– 9.4% 100.0% 18– 18
Groen 11.6% 3.7% 7.3% 7.3%– 7.4% 100.0% 14– 14
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 2.4% 4.5% 4.5%– 4.6% 100.0% 6– 6
PVDA 4.0% 0.9% 1.7% 1.7%– 1.7% 0– 0
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 50.0% 30.8% 30.8%– 30.8% 0.0% 60– 60 0.0%
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 50.0% 34.4% 34.4%– 34.4% 0.0% 66– 66 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 50.0% 43.8% 43.8%– 43.8% 0.0% 84– 84 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 50.0% 44.3% 44.3%– 44.3% 0.0% 85– 85 100.0%
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 50.0% 23.0% 23.0%– 23.0% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 50.0% 32.9% 32.9%– 32.9% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 50.0% 23.5% 23.5%– 23.5% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 50.0% 26.6% 26.6%– 26.6% 0.0% 51– 51 0.0%
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 50.0% 25.4% 25.4%– 25.4% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 50.0% 19.3% 19.3%– 19.3% 0.0% 37– 37 0.0%
2016-03-25 08:57:45 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 100%.
2016-03-25 08:57:45 INFO: 1 simulations out of 1 data points, 1 / 24,300,290,385,000,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
2016-03-25 08:57:46 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
N-VA 27.3% 22.2% 22.2% 22.1%– 22.2% 100.0% 38– 38
CD&V 19.1% 14.7% 14.7% 14.6%– 14.7% 100.0% 27– 27
sp.a 14.7% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7%– 10.7% 100.0% 19– 19
Open Vld 14.1% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2%– 10.2% 100.0% 18– 18
Groen 11.6% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9%– 8.0% 100.0% 14– 14
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0%– 5.1% 100.0% 7– 7
PVDA 4.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7%– 1.8% 0– 0
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 66.0% 33.3% 32.1%– 33.3% 0.0% 60– 60 0.0%
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 67.7% 36.8% 35.6%– 36.8% 0.0% 65– 65 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 72.7% 47.0% 45.4%– 47.0% 0.0% 83– 83 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 72.9% 47.5% 45.9%– 47.5% 0.0% 84– 84 100.0%
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 61.9% 24.8% 23.9%– 24.8% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 67.1% 35.6% 34.2%– 35.6% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 62.1% 25.4% 24.4%– 25.4% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 63.9% 28.8% 27.7%– 28.8% 0.0% 51– 51 0.0%
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 63.2% 27.2% 26.3%– 27.2% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 60.2% 20.9% 20.1%– 20.9% 0.0% 37– 37 0.0%
2016-03-25 08:57:46 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.33%.
2016-03-25 08:57:46 INFO: 2 simulations out of 2 data points, 1 / 12,150,145,192,500,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
2016-03-25 08:57:47 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
N-VA 27.3% 24.8% 24.8% 24.8%– 24.8% 100.0% 38– 38
CD&V 19.1% 16.8% 16.8% 16.7%– 16.8% 100.0% 25– 25
sp.a 14.7% 12.5% 12.5% 12.4%– 12.5% 100.0% 19– 19
Open Vld 14.1% 11.7% 11.7% 11.7%– 11.8% 100.0% 19– 19
Groen 11.6% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1%– 9.1% 100.0% 14– 14
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.0%– 6.1% 100.0% 8– 8
PVDA 4.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8%– 1.9% 0– 0
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 68.6% 38.3% 37.1%– 38.3% 0.0% 58– 58 0.0%
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 70.1% 41.6% 40.4%– 41.6% 0.0% 63– 63 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 76.0% 53.3% 51.7%– 53.3% 100.0% 82– 82 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 76.2% 54.0% 52.4%– 54.0% 100.0% 82– 82 100.0%
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 63.9% 28.5% 27.6%– 28.5% 0.0% 44– 44 0.0%
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 69.9% 40.9% 39.6%– 40.9% 0.0% 63– 63 100.0%
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 64.1% 29.2% 28.3%– 29.2% 0.0% 44– 44 0.0%
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 66.0% 33.3% 32.2%– 33.3% 0.0% 52– 52 0.0%
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 64.9% 30.9% 29.9%– 30.9% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 61.7% 24.2% 23.4%– 24.2% 0.0% 38– 38 0.0%
2016-03-25 08:57:47 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.65%.
2016-03-25 08:57:47 INFO: 4 simulations out of 4 data points, 1 / 6,075,072,596,250,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
2016-03-25 08:57:48 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
N-VA 27.3% 28.8% 28.8% 28.8%– 28.8% 100.0% 38– 38
CD&V 19.1% 19.9% 19.9% 19.9%– 19.9% 100.0% 26– 26
sp.a 14.7% 15.1% 15.1% 15.0%– 15.1% 100.0% 19– 19
Open Vld 14.1% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0%– 14.1% 100.0% 19– 19
Groen 11.6% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9%– 10.9% 100.0% 14– 14
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.6% 7.6% 7.5%– 7.6% 100.0% 8– 8
PVDA 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%– 2.0% 0– 0
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 72.3% 45.9% 44.6%– 45.9% 0.0% 59– 59 0.0%
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 73.8% 48.7% 47.5%– 48.7% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 80.5% 62.8% 61.2%– 62.8% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 81.2% 63.8% 62.1%– 63.8% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.8% 34.0% 33.1%– 34.3% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 73.8% 49.0% 47.7%– 49.0% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 67.1% 35.0% 34.0%– 35.0% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 40.7% 40.0% 38.9%– 42.4% 0.0% 52– 52 0.0%
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 68.0% 36.4% 35.9%– 36.4% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 28.8% 29.1% 28.3%– 29.4% 0.0% 38– 38 0.0%
2016-03-25 08:57:48 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.98%.
2016-03-25 08:57:48 INFO: 8 simulations out of 14 data points, 1 / 1,735,735,027,500,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
2016-03-25 08:57:49 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
N-VA 27.3% 28.8% 28.8% 28.8%– 28.8% 100.0% 38– 38
CD&V 19.1% 19.9% 19.9% 19.9%– 19.9% 100.0% 26– 26
sp.a 14.7% 15.1% 15.1% 15.0%– 15.1% 100.0% 19– 19
Open Vld 14.1% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0%– 14.1% 100.0% 19– 19
Groen 11.6% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9%– 10.9% 100.0% 14– 14
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.6% 7.6% 7.5%– 7.6% 100.0% 8– 8
PVDA 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%– 2.0% 0– 0
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 45.9% 45.9% 45.7%– 46.0% 0.0% 59– 59 0.0%
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 48.3% 48.7% 47.5%– 48.9% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 62.6% 62.8% 61.8%– 63.1% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 64.1% 63.8% 63.2%– 64.8% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 34.0% 34.0% 33.5%– 34.3% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 49.1% 49.0% 48.3%– 49.7% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 35.5% 35.0% 35.0%– 35.9% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 40.3% 40.0% 39.3%– 41.0% 0.0% 52– 52 0.0%
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 36.6% 36.4% 36.2%– 36.7% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 29.1% 29.1% 29.0%– 29.2% 0.0% 38– 38 0.0%
2016-03-25 08:57:49 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.80%.
2016-03-25 08:57:49 INFO: 16 simulations out of 27 data points, 1 / 900,010,755,000,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
2016-03-25 08:57:50 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
N-VA 27.3% 28.8% 28.8% 28.8%– 28.8% 100.0% 38– 38
CD&V 19.1% 19.9% 19.9% 19.9%– 19.9% 100.0% 26– 26
sp.a 14.7% 15.1% 15.1% 15.0%– 15.1% 100.0% 19– 19
Open Vld 14.1% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0%– 14.1% 100.0% 19– 19
Groen 11.6% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9%– 10.9% 100.0% 14– 14
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.6% 7.6% 7.5%– 7.6% 100.0% 8– 8
PVDA 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%– 2.0% 0– 0
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 45.9% 45.9% 45.7%– 46.0% 0.0% 59– 59 0.0%
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 48.7% 48.7% 48.5%– 48.9% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 62.8% 62.8% 62.3%– 63.1% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 63.9% 63.8% 63.2%– 64.3% 100.0% 83– 83 100.0%
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 34.0% 34.0% 33.5%– 34.3% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 49.1% 49.0% 48.8%– 49.6% 0.0% 64– 64 100.0%
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 35.3% 35.0% 35.0%– 35.5% 0.0% 45– 45 0.0%
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 40.5% 40.0% 40.0%– 40.9% 0.0% 52– 52 0.0%
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 36.4% 36.4% 36.2%– 36.6% 0.0% 46– 46 0.0%
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 29.1% 29.1% 29.0%– 29.2% 0.0% 38– 38 0.0%
2016-03-25 08:57:50 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.12%.
2016-03-25 08:57:50 INFO: 32 simulations out of 74 data points, 1 / 328,382,302,500,000 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
2016-03-25 08:57:51 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
N-VA 27.3% 24.6% 24.6% 24.6%– 24.6% 100.0% 32– 32
CD&V 19.1% 22.2% 22.2% 19.9%– 22.3% 99.4% 26– 31
sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 15.4%– 15.5% 100.0% 19– 19
Open Vld 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0%– 14.0% 100.0% 18– 18
Groen 11.6% 12.0% 12.0% 11.6%– 12.0% 100.0% 15– 16
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9%– 7.9% 100.0% 8– 8
PVDA 4.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7%– 2.8% 0– 0
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 49.6% 49.6% 49.6%– 49.6% 0.0% 65– 66 97.6%
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 47.0% 46.8% 46.6%– 47.1% 0.0% 63– 63 99.4%
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 60.8% 60.8% 60.7%– 60.9% 100.0% 81– 81 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 62.3% 62.3% 62.1%– 62.4% 100.0% 82– 82 100.0%
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 36.3% 36.3% 33.7%– 36.4% 0.0% 45– 49 0.0%
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 52.4% 51.7% 50.8%– 52.8% 97.6% 68– 68 100.0%
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 37.7% 37.7% 37.3%– 37.8% 0.0% 50– 50 0.0%
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 41.1% 41.4% 40.7%– 41.5% 0.0% 53– 53 0.0%
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 32.5% 32.5% 32.4%– 32.6% 0.0% 40– 40 0.0%
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 29.5% 29.4% 29.4%– 29.6% 0.0% 37– 38 0.0%
2016-03-25 08:57:51 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.21%.
2016-03-25 08:57:51 INFO: 64 simulations out of 167 data points, 1 / 145,510,720,868,263 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
2016-03-25 08:57:53 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
N-VA 27.3% 24.6% 24.6% 24.6%– 26.6% 100.0% 32– 37
CD&V 19.1% 16.1% 22.2% 16.1%– 22.3% 51.1% 20– 31
sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 15.4%– 17.9% 100.0% 19– 23
Open Vld 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0%– 14.9% 100.0% 18– 19
Groen 11.6% 12.0% 12.0% 11.9%– 12.0% 100.0% 15– 16
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 7.3%– 7.9% 100.0% 8– 8
PVDA 4.0% 4.2% 2.8% 2.7%– 4.3% 0– 2
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 49.6% 49.6% 45.9%– 49.6% 0.0% 58– 66 49.9%
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.9% 46.8% 42.6%– 47.0% 0.2% 57– 63 51.1%
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 57.6% 60.8% 57.5%– 60.9% 100.0% 76– 81 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 62.3% 62.3% 60.4%– 62.4% 100.0% 80– 82 100.0%
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 36.3% 36.3% 30.9%– 36.4% 0.0% 39– 49 0.0%
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 51.7% 51.7% 48.8%– 51.7% 49.9% 62– 68 51.1%
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 37.7% 37.7% 33.9%– 37.8% 0.0% 43– 50 0.0%
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 44.6% 41.4% 41.4%– 44.7% 0.0% 53– 57 0.0%
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 32.5% 32.5% 32.4%– 34.0% 0.0% 40– 45 0.0%
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 29.5% 29.4% 29.4%– 32.9% 0.0% 37– 42 0.0%
2016-03-25 08:57:53 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 6.13%.
2016-03-25 08:57:53 INFO: 128 simulations out of 336 data points, 1 / 72,322,292,812,500 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
2016-03-25 08:57:54 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
N-VA 27.3% 24.6% 24.6% 24.6%– 29.5% 100.0% 32– 41
CD&V 19.1% 16.1% 22.2% 16.1%– 22.3% 56.9% 20– 31
sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 12.1%– 17.9% 95.1% 15– 23
Open Vld 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 12.4%– 14.9% 99.4% 18– 19
Groen 11.6% 12.0% 12.0% 11.9%– 12.7% 100.0% 15– 17
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 6.4%– 7.9% 100.0% 6– 8
PVDA 4.0% 4.2% 2.8% 2.7%– 5.7% 0– 5
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 49.6% 49.6% 45.9%– 49.6% 0.0% 56– 66 44.7%
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.8% 46.8% 42.6%– 50.8% 4.4% 57– 68 49.8%
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 60.8% 60.8% 57.5%– 63.9% 100.0% 76– 86 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 60.5% 62.3% 60.4%– 62.8% 100.0% 79– 83 100.0%
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 36.3% 36.3% 30.1%– 36.4% 0.0% 39– 49 0.0%
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 51.7% 51.7% 46.0%– 51.7% 44.0% 59– 68 45.7%
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 37.7% 37.7% 33.2%– 37.8% 0.0% 41– 50 0.0%
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 41.4% 41.4% 38.0%– 44.7% 0.0% 50– 57 0.0%
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 32.4% 32.5% 32.4%– 35.9% 0.0% 40– 47 0.0%
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 32.8% 29.4% 25.3%– 32.9% 0.0% 33– 42 0.0%
2016-03-25 08:57:54 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.62%.
2016-03-25 08:57:54 INFO: 256 simulations out of 716 data points, 1 / 33,938,953,051,676 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
2016-03-25 08:57:55 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
N-VA 27.3% 24.6% 24.6% 24.6%– 29.5% 100.0% 32– 41
CD&V 19.1% 16.1% 22.2% 16.1%– 22.3% 60.5% 20– 31
sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 12.1%– 17.9% 94.5% 15– 23
Open Vld 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 12.4%– 14.9% 98.6% 18– 20
Groen 11.6% 12.0% 12.0% 11.9%– 13.8% 99.8% 15– 18
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 6.1%– 7.9% 100.0% 6– 8
PVDA 4.0% 4.2% 2.8% 2.7%– 5.7% 0– 5
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 46.0% 49.6% 45.9%– 49.6% 0.0% 56– 66 41.7%
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.8% 46.8% 42.6%– 50.8% 4.0% 56– 68 46.4%
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 57.5% 60.8% 57.5%– 63.9% 100.0% 76– 86 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 62.2% 62.3% 59.6%– 62.8% 100.0% 75– 83 100.0%
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 36.3% 36.3% 30.1%– 36.4% 0.0% 39– 49 0.0%
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 51.7% 51.7% 46.1%– 51.7% 40.5% 59– 68 42.9%
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 37.7% 37.7% 32.3%– 37.8% 0.0% 39– 50 0.0%
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 44.7% 41.4% 38.0%– 44.7% 0.0% 50– 57 0.0%
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 32.4% 32.5% 32.4%– 35.9% 0.0% 40– 47 0.0%
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 32.7% 29.4% 25.4%– 32.7% 0.0% 33– 42 0.0%
2016-03-25 08:57:55 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.89%.
2016-03-25 08:57:55 INFO: 512 simulations out of 1,433 data points, 1 / 16,957,634,602,233 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
2016-03-25 08:57:58 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
N-VA 27.3% 27.0% 27.0% 23.3%– 29.5% 100.0% 32– 41
CD&V 19.1% 17.6% 17.6% 16.1%– 22.3% 84.9% 20– 31
sp.a 14.7% 14.2% 14.2% 14.0%– 17.9% 56.6% 18– 23
Open Vld 14.1% 16.3% 16.3% 12.1%– 16.4% 98.8% 15– 22
Groen 11.6% 12.4% 12.4% 10.9%– 13.8% 99.9% 14– 18
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 6.9% 6.9% 6.1%– 8.8% 100.0% 6– 10
PVDA 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 2.7%– 5.7% 0– 5
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 44.1% 44.1% 43.0%– 49.6% 0.0% 54– 66 23.9%
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 44.6% 44.6% 42.6%– 48.7% 1.5% 56– 64 20.7%
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 60.9% 60.9% 57.5%– 62.0% 100.0% 76– 83 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 58.7% 58.7% 58.7%– 62.9% 100.0% 75– 83 100.0%
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 34.8% 34.0% 29.9%– 36.3% 0.0% 38– 49 0.0%
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 51.7% 48.1% 45.8%– 51.7% 23.6% 58– 68 24.6%
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 37.7% 31.8% 31.8%– 37.7% 0.0% 39– 50 0.0%
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 42.9% 42.9% 38.2%– 44.7% 0.0% 49– 57 0.0%
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 33.8% 33.8% 30.9%– 37.3% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 30.5% 30.5% 26.4%– 32.7% 0.0% 33– 42 0.0%
2016-03-25 08:57:58 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.62%.
2016-03-25 08:57:58 INFO: 1,024 simulations out of 2,870 data points, 1 / 8,467,000,134,146 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
2016-03-25 08:58:03 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
N-VA 27.3% 27.0% 27.0% 24.6%– 28.3% 100.0% 32– 39
CD&V 19.1% 19.5% 19.5% 16.1%– 22.3% 96.7% 20– 31
sp.a 14.7% 14.2% 14.2% 12.3%– 17.9% 16.7% 16– 23
Open Vld 14.1% 14.3% 14.3% 12.1%– 16.4% 99.6% 15– 22
Groen 11.6% 11.3% 11.3% 10.9%– 12.7% 97.8% 14– 17
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 9.9% 9.9% 6.9%– 9.9% 100.0% 7– 11
PVDA 4.0% 3.1% 3.1% 2.7%– 4.7% 0– 2
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 44.9% 44.9% 44.1%– 49.6% 0.0% 56– 66 5.2%
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.4% 46.4% 42.7%– 48.8% 0.4% 57– 66 9.6%
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 60.7% 60.7% 57.5%– 61.1% 100.0% 76– 81 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 58.7% 60.6% 58.7%– 62.5% 100.0% 77– 82 100.0%
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.7% 33.7% 31.0%– 36.3% 0.0% 39– 49 0.0%
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 47.9% 47.9% 45.1%– 51.7% 5.7% 57– 68 78.4%
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 33.6% 33.6% 31.8%– 37.7% 0.0% 40– 50 0.0%
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 39.7% 37.7%– 44.7% 0.0% 49– 57 0.0%
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 33.8% 36.8% 32.5%– 37.7% 0.0% 40– 49 0.0%
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 28.4% 28.4% 24.7%– 32.7% 0.0% 32– 42 0.0%
2016-03-25 08:58:03 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.97%.
2016-03-25 08:58:03 INFO: 2,048 simulations out of 5,813 data points, 1 / 4,180,335,521,245 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
2016-03-25 08:58:08 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
N-VA 27.3% 27.8% 25.4% 25.1%– 29.7% 100.0% 33– 39
CD&V 19.1% 20.1% 20.1% 17.3%– 21.6% 98.8% 21– 28
sp.a 14.7% 15.5% 16.8% 13.0%– 16.8% 66.2% 16– 23
Open Vld 14.1% 13.4% 13.4% 12.0%– 16.4% 99.3% 15– 22
Groen 11.6% 12.2% 12.2% 10.9%– 12.6% 99.2% 14– 17
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 9.2% 7.2% 6.6%– 9.9% 100.0% 7– 11
PVDA 4.0% 3.1% 4.0% 3.1%– 5.1% 0– 3
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 44.9% 49.0% 43.0%– 49.1% 0.0% 56– 63 29.9%
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.4% 45.5% 43.1%– 47.5% 0.1% 56– 63 4.4%
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 60.9% 59.0% 58.0%– 61.9% 100.0% 76– 81 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 60.6% 62.3% 57.4%– 63.8% 100.0% 75– 82 100.0%
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.6% 33.5% 31.0%– 36.3% 0.0% 39– 47 0.0%
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 47.9% 50.3% 46.2%– 50.3% 29.6% 59– 66 57.1%
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 36.9% 36.9% 31.7%– 36.9% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 42.4% 38.4%– 43.0% 0.0% 49– 56 0.0%
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 37.1% 32.7% 32.7%– 37.3% 0.0% 41– 48 0.0%
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 28.4% 30.2% 27.8%– 30.5% 0.0% 35– 41 0.0%
2016-03-25 08:58:08 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.61%.
2016-03-25 08:58:08 INFO: 4,096 simulations out of 11,590 data points, 1 / 2,096,660,084,987 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
2016-03-25 08:58:18 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
N-VA 27.3% 27.8% 25.4% 24.6%– 29.7% 100.0% 32– 40
CD&V 19.1% 20.1% 19.5% 16.6%– 21.8% 98.8% 20– 29
sp.a 14.7% 15.5% 14.2% 11.8%– 17.3% 64.8% 15– 23
Open Vld 14.1% 14.3% 14.3% 12.0%– 16.5% 98.8% 15– 22
Groen 11.6% 12.2% 12.2% 10.4%– 12.8% 99.3% 14– 17
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 9.2% 7.2% 6.2%– 9.9% 100.0% 6– 11
PVDA 4.0% 3.1% 4.0% 3.1%– 5.6% 0– 4
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 44.9% 49.0% 41.9%– 49.1% 0.1% 54– 64 22.6%
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.4% 45.5% 43.0%– 49.9% 0.6% 56– 66 13.1%
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 62.2% 59.0% 57.6%– 62.3% 100.0% 75– 83 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 60.6% 60.6% 57.4%– 63.9% 100.0% 75– 85 100.0%
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.7% 33.7% 31.0%– 36.3% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 47.9% 50.3% 44.3%– 50.9% 27.6% 57– 66 55.6%
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 36.9% 36.9% 29.8%– 37.1% 0.0% 37– 48 0.0%
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 42.4% 36.9%– 44.1% 0.0% 49– 57 0.0%
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 37.1% 32.7% 32.4%– 38.3% 0.0% 40– 49 0.0%
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 28.4% 30.2% 26.3%– 32.4% 0.0% 34– 43 0.0%
2016-03-25 08:58:18 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.38%.
2016-03-25 08:58:18 INFO: 8,192 simulations out of 23,308 data points, 1 / 1,042,572,952,849 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
2016-03-25 08:58:44 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
N-VA 27.3% 27.3% 27.3% 24.5%– 30.7% 100.0% 32– 40
CD&V 19.1% 19.4% 19.4% 16.6%– 21.6% 99.3% 20– 29
sp.a 14.7% 14.9% 14.9% 12.0%– 17.3% 74.4% 15– 23
Open Vld 14.1% 13.9% 13.9% 11.8%– 16.4% 98.9% 14– 22
Groen 11.6% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5%– 12.8% 99.6% 14– 17
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 9.3% 9.3% 6.2%– 9.9% 100.0% 6– 11
PVDA 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.1%– 5.4% 0– 4
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 42.5% 44.9% 41.9%– 49.0% 0.0% 54– 65 11.5%
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 45.4% 46.7% 43.1%– 49.3% 0.6% 56– 66 17.3%
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 58.7% 60.6% 57.6%– 62.8% 100.0% 76– 83 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 61.6% 61.6% 57.6%– 63.8% 100.0% 75– 85 100.0%
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.2% 33.3% 30.4%– 35.8% 0.0% 40– 47 0.0%
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 47.9% 48.2% 44.6%– 50.9% 14.8% 57– 67 60.9%
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 36.9% 34.3% 30.5%– 37.6% 0.0% 39– 50 0.0%
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 39.3% 37.4%– 43.4% 0.0% 47– 58 0.0%
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 36.6% 36.6% 32.4%– 38.6% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 28.4% 28.8% 26.3%– 32.4% 0.0% 33– 43 0.0%
2016-03-25 08:58:44 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.06%.
2016-03-25 08:58:44 INFO: 16,384 simulations out of 46,629 data points, 1 / 521,141,143,602 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
2016-03-25 08:59:37 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
N-VA 27.3% 27.3% 27.3% 24.6%– 30.7% 100.0% 33– 40
CD&V 19.1% 19.1% 19.0% 16.9%– 21.3% 99.7% 21– 28
sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 12.5%– 16.8% 66.4% 15– 22
Open Vld 14.1% 14.7% 14.7% 12.1%– 16.3% 96.8% 15– 22
Groen 11.6% 10.5% 10.5% 9.8%– 13.5% 99.7% 14– 17
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 6.6%– 9.9% 100.0% 6– 11
PVDA 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 3.1%– 5.3% 0– 3
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 42.5% 45.0% 42.5%– 49.0% 0.0% 54– 63 5.1%
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.1% 46.4% 43.3%– 49.6% 0.6% 57– 65 13.4%
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 58.7% 61.1% 57.9%– 62.8% 100.0% 76– 83 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 61.6% 61.8% 58.2%– 64.1% 100.0% 76– 84 100.0%
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.7% 33.7% 30.4%– 36.3% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 47.9% 49.2% 45.2%– 50.9% 8.8% 58– 67 71.8%
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 34.5% 34.5% 30.7%– 36.9% 0.0% 39– 48 0.0%
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 40.6% 37.6%– 43.0% 0.0% 49– 57 0.0%
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 35.5% 35.2% 32.5%– 38.4% 0.0% 41– 48 0.0%
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 30.1% 30.1% 26.1%– 31.7% 0.0% 33– 42 0.0%
2016-03-25 08:59:37 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.42%.
2016-03-25 08:59:37 INFO: 32,768 simulations out of 93,214 data points, 1 / 260,693,569,475 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).
2016-03-25 09:01:20 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
N-VA 27.3% 27.3% 27.3% 24.6%– 30.4% 100.0% 33– 40
CD&V 19.1% 19.1% 19.0% 16.6%– 21.3% 98.8% 21– 28
sp.a 14.7% 15.4% 15.4% 12.3%– 17.1% 69.6% 15– 23
Open Vld 14.1% 14.7% 14.7% 12.0%– 16.2% 94.0% 15– 22
Groen 11.6% 10.5% 10.5% 9.7%– 13.9% 99.5% 13– 17
Vlaams Belang 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 6.4%– 9.9% 100.0% 6– 11
PVDA 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 2.9%– 5.3% 0– 3
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
CD&V + Groen + sp.a 45.5% 46.6% 45.0% 42.5%– 49.0% 0.0% 54– 64 6.9%
CD&V + N-VA 46.4% 46.1% 46.4% 42.9%– 49.6% 0.8% 56– 66 12.9%
CD&V + N-VA + Open Vld 60.5% 59.0% 61.1% 57.4%– 63.1% 100.0% 75– 84 100.0%
CD&V + N-VA + sp.a 61.1% 61.6% 61.8% 57.8%– 64.0% 100.0% 75– 84 100.0%
CD&V + Open Vld 33.2% 33.7% 33.7% 30.4%– 36.4% 0.0% 40– 48 0.0%
CD&V + Open Vld + sp.a 48.0% 45.6% 49.2% 44.5%– 51.2% 9.9% 58– 67 57.6%
CD&V + sp.a 33.8% 34.5% 34.5% 30.3%– 37.4% 0.0% 39– 48 0.0%
Groen + Open Vld + sp.a 40.5% 39.7% 40.6% 37.6%– 43.7% 0.0% 48– 58 0.0%
N-VA + Vlaams Belang 35.3% 35.5% 35.2% 32.5%– 38.4% 0.0% 41– 48 0.0%
Open Vld + sp.a 28.9% 30.1% 30.1% 26.2%– 32.0% 0.0% 33– 43 0.0%
2016-03-25 09:01:20 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.78%.
2016-03-25 09:01:20 INFO: 65,536 simulations out of 187,092 data points, 1 / 129,884,176,688 of search space size (24,300,290,385,000,000).