The following file is a valid poll file for a British referendum poll. It is based on the results of a poll conducted between 4 and 6 March by ICM.
Area=UK
Type=Referendum
==
Remain=819
Leave=816
Other=368
The following call will use the poll file to run an analysis, provided it has been saved as 2016-04-06-ICM.poll.
sapor analyze 2016-04-06-ICM.poll
For this file, the log will look like below.
2016-03-25 09:05:45 INFO: Analyzing as a set of dichotomies...
2016-03-25 09:05:45 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥50%)
Leave 50.0% 33.3%– 66.7% 100.0%
Remain 50.0% 33.3%– 66.7% 100.0%
Other 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 0.0%
2016-03-25 09:05:45 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 33.3%.
2016-03-25 09:05:45 INFO: Number of data points: 3.
2016-03-25 09:05:45 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥50%)
Leave 38.9% 33.3%– 44.4% 0.0%
Remain 38.9% 33.3%– 44.4% 0.0%
Other 16.7% 11.1%– 22.2% 0.0%
2016-03-25 09:05:45 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 11.1%.
2016-03-25 09:05:45 INFO: Number of data points: 9.
2016-03-25 09:05:45 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥50%)
Leave 42.6% 37.0%– 44.4% 0.0%
Remain 42.6% 37.0%– 44.4% 0.0%
Other 16.7% 14.8%– 22.2% 0.0%
2016-03-25 09:05:45 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.70%.
2016-03-25 09:05:45 INFO: Number of data points: 27.
2016-03-25 09:05:46 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥50%)
Remain 41.4% 38.3%– 43.2% 0.0%
Leave 40.1% 38.3%– 43.2% 0.0%
Other 17.9% 16.0%– 21.0% 0.0%
2016-03-25 09:05:46 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.23%.
2016-03-25 09:05:46 INFO: Number of data points: 81.
2016-03-25 09:05:48 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥50%)
Remain 40.9% 38.7%– 43.2% 0.0%
Leave 40.5% 38.3%– 43.2% 0.0%
Other 18.3% 16.5%– 20.2% 0.0%
2016-03-25 09:05:48 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.412%.
2016-03-25 09:05:48 INFO: Number of data points: 243.
2016-03-25 09:05:53 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥50%)
Remain 40.9% 38.7%– 43.1% 0.0%
Leave 40.7% 38.5%– 42.9% 0.0%
Other 18.3% 16.7%– 20.2% 0.0%
2016-03-25 09:05:53 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.137%.
2016-03-25 09:05:53 INFO: Number of data points: 729.
2016-03-25 09:06:13 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥50%)
Remain 40.9% 38.7%– 43.1% 0.0%
Leave 40.7% 38.6%– 42.9% 0.0%
Other 18.4% 16.7%– 20.2% 0.0%
2016-03-25 09:06:15 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.046%.
2016-03-25 09:06:15 INFO: Number of data points: 2,187.
2016-03-25 09:06:17 INFO: Analyzing as a polychotomy...
2016-03-25 09:06:18 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓)
Remain 40.9% 17.8% 35.6% 35.6%– 35.6% 100.0%
Leave 40.7% 17.8% 35.5% 35.5%– 35.5%
2016-03-25 09:06:18 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 100%.
2016-03-25 09:06:18 INFO: 1 simulations out of 1 data points, 1 / 55,460 of search space size (55,460).
2016-03-25 09:06:18 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓)
Remain 40.9% 35.7% 35.7% 35.6%– 35.8% 100.0%
Leave 40.7% 35.5% 35.5% 35.5%– 35.5%
2016-03-25 09:06:18 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 17.9%.
2016-03-25 09:06:18 INFO: 2 simulations out of 2 data points, 1 / 27,730 of search space size (55,460).
2016-03-25 09:06:19 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓)
Remain 40.9% 36.0% 36.0% 35.7%– 36.0% 100.0%
Leave 40.7% 35.6% 35.6% 35.5%– 35.6%
2016-03-25 09:06:19 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.300%.
2016-03-25 09:06:19 INFO: 4 simulations out of 4 data points, 1 / 13,865 of search space size (55,460).
2016-03-25 09:06:19 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓)
Remain 40.9% 36.6% 36.6% 36.3%– 36.6% 100.0%
Leave 40.7% 35.8% 35.8% 35.7%– 35.8%
2016-03-25 09:06:19 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.600%.
2016-03-25 09:06:19 INFO: 8 simulations out of 8 data points, 1 / 6,933 of search space size (55,460).
2016-03-25 09:06:20 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓)
Remain 40.9% 37.7% 37.7% 37.4%– 37.7% 100.0%
Leave 40.7% 36.1% 36.1% 36.0%– 36.2%
2016-03-25 09:06:20 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.10%.
2016-03-25 09:06:20 INFO: 16 simulations out of 16 data points, 1 / 3,466 of search space size (55,460).
2016-03-25 09:06:20 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓)
Remain 40.9% 39.8% 39.8% 39.4%– 39.9% 100.0%
Leave 40.7% 36.9% 36.9% 36.7%– 36.9%
2016-03-25 09:06:20 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.19%.
2016-03-25 09:06:20 INFO: 32 simulations out of 32 data points, 1 / 1,733 of search space size (55,460).
2016-03-25 09:06:20 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓)
Remain 40.9% 43.3% 43.3% 41.9%– 44.1% 100.0%
Leave 40.7% 38.0% 38.0% 37.5%– 38.3%
2016-03-25 09:06:20 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.50%.
2016-03-25 09:06:20 INFO: 64 simulations out of 64 data points, 1 / 867 of search space size (55,460).
2016-03-25 09:06:21 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓)
Remain 40.9% 40.7% 40.9% 39.6%– 42.9% 53.6%
Leave 40.7% 40.8% 40.8% 38.1%– 41.2%
2016-03-25 09:06:21 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.80%.
2016-03-25 09:06:21 INFO: 128 simulations out of 128 data points, 1 / 433 of search space size (55,460).
2016-03-25 09:06:22 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓)
Remain 40.9% 40.7% 40.9% 39.0%– 42.9% 52.5%
Leave 40.7% 40.8% 40.8% 38.1%– 43.3%
2016-03-25 09:06:22 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.80%.
2016-03-25 09:06:22 INFO: 256 simulations out of 256 data points, 1 / 217 of search space size (55,460).
2016-03-25 09:06:24 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓)
Remain 40.9% 40.7% 40.9% 39.0%– 42.9% 47.8%
Leave 40.7% 40.8% 40.8% 38.1%– 43.2%
2016-03-25 09:06:24 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.046%.
2016-03-25 09:06:24 INFO: 512 simulations out of 512 data points, 1 / 108 of search space size (55,460).
2016-03-25 09:06:24 INFO: Done.