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README.md

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Entropy Pooling in Python
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=========================
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Due to popular demand from developers, this package contains the Entropy Pooling
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implementation from the [fortitudo.tech Python package](https://github.com/fortitudo-tech/fortitudo.tech)
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with a more permissive BSD 3-Clause license.
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This package contains only one function called ep and has minimal dependencies
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with just scipy. See [this example](https://github.com/fortitudo-tech/entropy-pooling/blob/main/example/EntropyPooling.ipynb)
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for how you can import and use the ep function.
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Installation instructions
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-------------------------
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Installation can be done via pip:
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pip install entropy-pooling
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Theory
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------
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Entropy Pooling is a powerful method for implementing subjective views and
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performing stress-tests for fully general Monte Carlo distributions. It was first
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introduced by [Meucci (2008)](https://ssrn.com/abstract=1213325) and refined
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with sequential algorithms by [Vorobets (2021)](https://ssrn.com/abstract=3936392).
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The original Entropy Pooling approach solves the minimum relative entropy problem
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$$q=\text{argmin}\lbrace x'\left(\ln x-\ln p\right)\rbrace$$
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subject to the constraints
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$$Ax=b \quad \text{and} \quad Gx\leq h.$$
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The constraints matrices $A$ and $G$ contain transformations of the Monte Carlo
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simulation that allow you to implement subjective views and stress-tests by
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changing the joint scenario probabilities from a prior probability vector $p$
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to a posterior probability vector $q$.
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A useful statistic when working with Entropy Pooling is the effective number of
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scenarios introduced by [Meucci (2012)](https://ssrn.com/abstract=1971808). For
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a causal Bayesian nets overlay on top of Entropy Pooling, see
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[Vorobets (2023)](https://ssrn.com/abstract=4444291).

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