diff --git a/1.nursing_homes/1.nursing_home_analyses_combined.R b/1.nursing_homes/1.nursing_home_analyses_combined.R index 8fcadcc..b7c3c3e 100644 --- a/1.nursing_homes/1.nursing_home_analyses_combined.R +++ b/1.nursing_homes/1.nursing_home_analyses_combined.R @@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ setwd(main_wd) ## IMPORTANT - change this flag to TRUE if running the MCMC for the first time rerun_mcmc_seeirr <- FALSE -rerun_mcmc_ct <- TRUE +rerun_mcmc_ct <- FALSE ## Clean data and set up model parameters. Also some data plots. source("1.nursing_homes/1.nursing_home_analyses_headers.R") diff --git a/5.bwh/5.fit_ma_gp.R b/5.bwh/5.fit_ma_gp.R index 36c8811..e3b48b7 100644 --- a/5.bwh/5.fit_ma_gp.R +++ b/5.bwh/5.fit_ma_gp.R @@ -27,10 +27,10 @@ devtools::load_all(paste0(HOME_WD,"/virosolver")) index <- 1994 set.seed(index) n_samp <- 1000 -runname <- "ma_gp_test" +runname <- "ma_gp" #runname <- "ma_gp_free" run_version <- "gp" ##gp, seir or exp## -rerun_mcmc <- TRUE +rerun_mcmc <- FALSE ## CHANGE TO MAIN WD ## Important to set this to the full file path, as on L205 the foreach loop @@ -231,7 +231,7 @@ for(ii in seq_along(samps)){ tmp_pars <- get_index_pars(chain_comb, samps[ii]) vl <- viral_load_func(tmp_pars,test_ages,FALSE) vl_trajs[ii,] <- extraDistr::rgumbel(length(vl),vl,tmp_pars["obs_sd"]) - detect_trajs[ii,] <- c(0,prop_detectable(test_ages[test_ages > 0], tmp_pars, vl[test_ages > 0])) + detect_trajs[ii,] <- c(0,prop_detectable(test_ages[test_ages > 0], tmp_pars, vl)) trajs[ii,] <- pmax(smooth.spline(inc_func_use(tmp_pars,times))$y,0.0000001) #trajs[ii,] <- pmax(inc_func_use(get_index_pars(chain_comb, samps[ii]),times),0.0000001) } @@ -391,7 +391,7 @@ p_inc <- ggplot(trajs_quants) + export_theme + ylab("Relative probability of infection") + xlab("Date") + - #scale_x_date(limits=as.Date(c("2020-03-01","2020-12-01")),breaks="1 month",expand=c(0,0)) + + scale_x_date(limits=as.Date(c("2020-03-01","2020-12-01")),breaks="1 month",expand=c(0,0)) + #coord_cartesian(ylim=c(-0.0001,0.005)) + scale_y_continuous(expand=c(0,0)) + labs(tag="C") diff --git a/5.bwh/5.fit_ma_single_timepoints_exp.R b/5.bwh/5.fit_ma_single_timepoints_exp.R index cc71252..871f14f 100644 --- a/5.bwh/5.fit_ma_single_timepoints_exp.R +++ b/5.bwh/5.fit_ma_single_timepoints_exp.R @@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ devtools::load_all(paste0(HOME_WD,"lazymcmc")) ## Arguments for this run set.seed(1) n_samp <- 1000 -runname <- "ma_exp_test" +runname <- "ma_exp" run_version <- "exp" ##gp, seir or exp## ## IMPORTANT - change this flag to TRUE if running the MCMC for the first time diff --git a/5.bwh/5.fit_ma_single_timepoints_seir.R b/5.bwh/5.fit_ma_single_timepoints_seir.R index 1f9c005..7640d3b 100644 --- a/5.bwh/5.fit_ma_single_timepoints_seir.R +++ b/5.bwh/5.fit_ma_single_timepoints_seir.R @@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ devtools::load_all(paste0(HOME_WD,"lazymcmc")) ## Arguments for this run set.seed(1) n_samp <- 1000 -runname <- "ma_seir_test" +runname <- "ma_seir_exposed_seed" run_version <- "seir" ##gp, seir or exp## ## IMPORTANT - change this flag to TRUE if running the MCMC for the first time diff --git a/5.bwh/Figure4.R b/5.bwh/Figure4.R index f5b2762..b1a8f3e 100644 --- a/5.bwh/Figure4.R +++ b/5.bwh/Figure4.R @@ -39,15 +39,15 @@ obs_times <- c(35, 42, 49, 56, 63, 70, 77, 84, 91, 98, 105, 112, 119, 126, seir_timeshift <- 36 ## Run names for the various MCMC chains -runname_seir <- "ma_seir_test" ## Constrained prior on seed time +runname_seir <- "ma_seir_constrained" ## Constrained prior on seed time runname_seir_prior <- "ma_seir_prior_constrained" runname_seir_prior_broad <- "ma_seir_rerun_prior" runname_seir_alt <- "ma_seir_rerun" ## Less constrained prior on seed time -runname_exp <- "ma_exp_test" +runname_exp <- "ma_exp" ## Where the MCMC chains are stored chainwd <- paste0("~/Documents/GitHub/virosolver_paper/mcmc_chains/5.real_ma_single_timepoint/") -chainwd_gp <- paste0("~/Documents/GitHub/virosolver_paper/mcmc_chains/4.real_ma_ct/ma_gp_test/") +chainwd_gp <- paste0("~/Documents/GitHub/virosolver_paper/mcmc_chains/4.real_ma_ct/ma_gp/") ## MCMC parameters for Ct model fits mcmcPars_ct_seir <- c("adaptive_period"=30000) diff --git a/figures/Figure2.pdf b/figures/Figure2.pdf deleted file mode 100644 index 8b7aea7..0000000 Binary files a/figures/Figure2.pdf and /dev/null differ diff --git a/figures/Figure2.png b/figures/Figure2.png deleted file mode 100644 index f277670..0000000 Binary files a/figures/Figure2.png and /dev/null differ diff --git a/figures/ma_gp_test.pdf 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b/pars/massachusetts/partab_exp_model.csv index 82eefa7..83a61ca 100644 --- a/pars/massachusetts/partab_exp_model.csv +++ b/pars/massachusetts/partab_exp_model.csv @@ -1,18 +1,18 @@ values,names,fixed,lower_bound,upper_bound,steps,lower_start,upper_start 0.1,beta,0,-0.5,0.5,0.1,-0.2,0.2 1,overall_prob,0,0,1,0.1,0,1 -1,tshift,1,0,3,0.1,0,10 +0,tshift,1,0,3,0.1,0,10 5,desired_mode,1,0,7,0.1,0,10 -21.56194409,viral_peak,0,0,40,0.1,15,25 -6.195697774,obs_sd,0,0,25,0.1,1,10 -0.636291677,sd_mod,1,0,1,0.1,0.4,0.6 +19.73598747,viral_peak,0,0,40,0.1,15,25 +5,obs_sd,0,0,25,0.1,1,10 +0.788828786,sd_mod,1,0,1,0.1,0.4,0.6 14,sd_mod_wane,1,0,14,0.1,0,14 40,true_0,1,40,100,0.1,40,100 40,intercept,1,35,100,0.1,35,100 3,LOD,1,0,10,0.1,0,10 5,incu,1,0,10,0.1,0,10 -13.72235562,t_switch,0,0,30,0.1,10,30 +13.29211948,t_switch,0,0,30,0.1,10,30 38,level_switch,0,0,40,0.1,33,40 1000,wane_rate2,1,0,10000,0.1,10,50 -0.123203205,prob_detect,0,0,1,0.1,0.01,0.1 +0.103299323,prob_detect,0,0,1,0.1,0.01,0.1 1,t_unit,1,0,1,0.1,0,1 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/pars/massachusetts/partab_exp_pos_model.csv b/pars/massachusetts/partab_exp_pos_model.csv index 0fb731d..373c0bc 100644 --- a/pars/massachusetts/partab_exp_pos_model.csv +++ b/pars/massachusetts/partab_exp_pos_model.csv @@ -1,18 +1,18 @@ values,names,fixed,lower_bound,upper_bound,steps,lower_start,upper_start -0.1,beta,0,-0.5,0.5,0.1,-0.2,0.2 1,overall_prob,1,0,1,0.1,0,1 -1,tshift,1,0,3,0.1,0,10 +0,tshift,1,0,3,0.1,0,10 5,desired_mode,1,0,7,0.1,0,10 -21.56194409,viral_peak,0,0,40,0.1,15,25 -6.195697774,obs_sd,0,0,25,0.1,1,10 -0.636291677,sd_mod,1,0,1,0.1,0.4,0.6 +19.73598747,viral_peak,0,0,40,0.1,15,25 +5,obs_sd,0,0,25,0.1,1,10 +0.788828786,sd_mod,1,0,1,0.1,0.4,0.6 14,sd_mod_wane,1,0,14,0.1,0,14 40,true_0,1,40,100,0.1,40,100 40,intercept,1,35,100,0.1,35,100 3,LOD,1,0,10,0.1,0,10 5,incu,1,0,10,0.1,0,10 -13.72235562,t_switch,0,0,30,0.1,10,30 +13.29211948,t_switch,0,0,30,0.1,10,30 38,level_switch,0,0,40,0.1,33,40 1000,wane_rate2,1,0,10000,0.1,10,50 -0.123203205,prob_detect,0,0,1,0.1,0.01,0.1 +0.103299323,prob_detect,0,0,1,0.1,0.01,0.1 1,t_unit,1,0,1,0.1,0,1 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/pars/massachusetts/partab_gp_model.csv b/pars/massachusetts/partab_gp_model.csv index 4aa655a..e13b56d 100644 --- a/pars/massachusetts/partab_gp_model.csv +++ b/pars/massachusetts/partab_gp_model.csv @@ -1,19 +1,19 @@ values,names,fixed,lower_bound,upper_bound,steps,lower_start,upper_start 0.5,overall_prob,0,0,1,0.1,0,1 -1,tshift,1,0,3,0.1,0,10 +0,tshift,1,0,3,0.1,0,10 5,desired_mode,1,0,7,0.1,0,10 -21.56194409,viral_peak,0,0,40,0.1,15,25 -6.195697774,obs_sd,0,0,25,0.1,1,10 -0.636291677,sd_mod,1,0,1,0.1,0.4,0.6 +19.73598747,viral_peak,0,0,40,0.1,15,25 +5,obs_sd,0,0,25,0.1,1,10 +0.788828786,sd_mod,1,0,1,0.1,0.4,0.6 14,sd_mod_wane,1,0,14,0.1,0,14 40,true_0,1,40,100,0.1,40,100 40,intercept,1,35,100,0.1,35,100 3,LOD,1,0,10,0.1,0,10 5,incu,1,0,10,0.1,0,10 -13.72235562,t_switch,0,0,30,0.1,10,30 +13.29211948,t_switch,0,0,30,0.1,10,30 38,level_switch,0,0,40,0.1,33,40 1000,wane_rate2,1,0,10000,0.1,10,50 -0.123203205,prob_detect,0,0,1,0.1,0.01,0.1 +0.103299323,prob_detect,0,0,1,0.1,0.01,0.1 1,t_unit,1,0,1,0.1,0,1 0,t0,1,0,100,0.1,0,50 1.5,nu,1,0,100,0.1,2,5 diff --git a/pars/massachusetts/partab_seir_model.csv b/pars/massachusetts/partab_seir_model.csv index c3a36d9..8000d4f 100644 --- a/pars/massachusetts/partab_seir_model.csv +++ b/pars/massachusetts/partab_seir_model.csv @@ -1,18 +1,18 @@ values,names,fixed,lower_bound,upper_bound,steps,lower_start,upper_start -1,tshift,1,0,3,0.1,0,10 +0,tshift,1,0,3,0.1,0,10 5,desired_mode,1,0,7,0.1,0,10 -21.56194409,viral_peak,0,0,40,0.1,15,25 -6.195697774,obs_sd,0,0,25,0.1,1,10 -0.636291677,sd_mod,1,0,1,0.1,0.4,0.6 +19.73598747,viral_peak,0,0,40,0.1,15,25 +5,obs_sd,0,0,25,0.1,1,10 +0.788828786,sd_mod,1,0,1,0.1,0.4,0.6 14,sd_mod_wane,1,0,14,0.1,0,14 40,true_0,1,40,100,0.1,40,100 40,intercept,1,35,100,0.1,35,100 3,LOD,1,0,10,0.1,0,10 5,incu,1,0,10,0.1,0,10 -13.72235562,t_switch,0,0,30,0.1,10,30 +13.29211948,t_switch,0,0,30,0.1,10,30 38,level_switch,0,0,40,0.1,33,40 1000,wane_rate2,1,0,10000,0.1,10,50 -0.123203205,prob_detect,0,0,1,0.1,0.01,0.1 +0.103299323,prob_detect,0,0,1,0.1,0.01,0.1 1,t_unit,1,0,1,0.1,0,1 2.5,R0,0,1,10,0.1,1.5,3 4,infectious,0,0,25,0.1,5,10 diff --git a/pars/nursing_homes/partab_exp_model.csv b/pars/nursing_homes/partab_exp_model.csv index b7f9cb0..f4685b9 100644 --- a/pars/nursing_homes/partab_exp_model.csv +++ b/pars/nursing_homes/partab_exp_model.csv @@ -1,18 +1,18 @@ values,names,fixed,lower_bound,upper_bound,steps,lower_start,upper_start 0.1,beta,0,-0.5,0.5,0.1,-0.2,0.2 1,overall_prob,0,0,1,0.1,0,1 -1,tshift,1,0,3,0.1,0,10 +0,tshift,1,0,3,0.1,0,10 5,desired_mode,1,0,7,0.1,0,10 -20.76267783,viral_peak,0,0,40,0.1,15,25 -5.216597448,obs_sd,0,0,25,0.1,1,10 -0.390277615,sd_mod,1,0,1,0.1,0.4,0.6 +20.66182195,viral_peak,0,0,40,0.1,15,25 +5.150558612,obs_sd,0,0,25,0.1,1,10 +0.395291595,sd_mod,1,0,1,0.1,0.4,0.6 14,sd_mod_wane,1,0,14,0.1,0,14 40,true_0,1,40,100,0.1,40,100 40,intercept,1,35,100,0.1,35,100 3,LOD,1,0,10,0.1,0,10 5,incu,1,0,10,0.1,0,10 -8.39345933,t_switch,0,0,30,0.1,10,30 +9.383013136,t_switch,0,0,30,0.1,10,30 33,level_switch,0,0,40,0.1,33,40 1000,wane_rate2,1,0,10000,0.1,10,50 -0.109859503,prob_detect,0,0,1,0.1,0.01,0.1 +0.109940519,prob_detect,0,0,1,0.1,0.01,0.1 1,t_unit,1,0,1,0.1,0,1 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/pars/nursing_homes/partab_exp_pos_model.csv b/pars/nursing_homes/partab_exp_pos_model.csv index b390667..19a7478 100644 --- a/pars/nursing_homes/partab_exp_pos_model.csv +++ b/pars/nursing_homes/partab_exp_pos_model.csv @@ -1,18 +1,18 @@ values,names,fixed,lower_bound,upper_bound,steps,lower_start,upper_start -0.1,beta,0,-0.5,0.5,0.1,-0.2,0.2 1,overall_prob,1,0,1,0.1,0,1 -1,tshift,1,0,3,0.1,0,10 +0,tshift,1,0,3,0.1,0,10 5,desired_mode,1,0,7,0.1,0,10 -20.76267783,viral_peak,0,0,40,0.1,15,25 -5.216597448,obs_sd,0,0,25,0.1,1,10 -0.390277615,sd_mod,1,0,1,0.1,0.4,0.6 +20.66182195,viral_peak,0,0,40,0.1,15,25 +5.150558612,obs_sd,0,0,25,0.1,1,10 +0.395291595,sd_mod,1,0,1,0.1,0.4,0.6 14,sd_mod_wane,1,0,14,0.1,0,14 40,true_0,1,40,100,0.1,40,100 40,intercept,1,35,100,0.1,35,100 3,LOD,1,0,10,0.1,0,10 5,incu,1,0,10,0.1,0,10 -8.39345933,t_switch,0,0,30,0.1,10,30 +9.383013136,t_switch,0,0,30,0.1,10,30 33,level_switch,0,0,40,0.1,33,40 1000,wane_rate2,1,0,10000,0.1,10,50 -0.109859503,prob_detect,0,0,1,0.1,0.01,0.1 +0.109940519,prob_detect,0,0,1,0.1,0.01,0.1 1,t_unit,1,0,1,0.1,0,1 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/pars/nursing_homes/partab_seir_model.csv b/pars/nursing_homes/partab_seir_model.csv index b68b8a7..57f732e 100644 --- a/pars/nursing_homes/partab_seir_model.csv +++ b/pars/nursing_homes/partab_seir_model.csv @@ -1,18 +1,18 @@ values,names,fixed,lower_bound,upper_bound,steps,lower_start,upper_start -1,tshift,1,0,3,0.1,0,10 +0,tshift,1,0,3,0.1,0,10 5,desired_mode,1,0,7,0.1,0,10 -20.76267783,viral_peak,0,0,40,0.1,15,25 -5.216597448,obs_sd,0,0,25,0.1,1,10 -0.390277615,sd_mod,1,0,1,0.1,0.4,0.6 +20.66182195,viral_peak,0,0,40,0.1,15,25 +5.150558612,obs_sd,0,0,25,0.1,1,10 +0.395291595,sd_mod,1,0,1,0.1,0.4,0.6 14,sd_mod_wane,1,0,14,0.1,0,14 40,true_0,1,40,100,0.1,40,100 40,intercept,1,35,100,0.1,35,100 3,LOD,1,0,10,0.1,0,10 5,incu,1,0,10,0.1,0,10 -8.39345933,t_switch,0,0,30,0.1,10,30 +9.383013136,t_switch,0,0,30,0.1,10,30 33,level_switch,0,0,40,0.1,33,40 1000,wane_rate2,1,0,10000,0.1,10,50 -0.109859503,prob_detect,0,0,1,0.1,0.01,0.1 +0.109940519,prob_detect,0,0,1,0.1,0.01,0.1 1,t_unit,1,0,1,0.1,0,1 2.5,R0,0,1,10,0.1,1.5,3 4,infectious,0,0,25,0.1,5,10 diff --git a/pars/partab_fitted_bwh.csv b/pars/partab_fitted_bwh.csv deleted file mode 100644 index d376c69..0000000 --- a/pars/partab_fitted_bwh.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,17 +0,0 @@ -values,names,fixed,lower_bound,upper_bound,steps,lower_start,upper_start -0.1,beta,1,-0.5,0.5,0.1,-0.2,0.2 -1,tshift,1,0,3,0.1,0,10 -5,desired_mode,1,0,7,0.1,0,10 -21.56194408554205,viral_peak,0,0,40,0.1,15,25 -6.19569777362801,obs_sd,0,0,25,0.1,1,10 -0.6362916772625415,sd_mod,1,0,1,0.1,0.4,0.6 -14,sd_mod_wane,1,0,14,0.1,0,14 -40,true_0,1,40,100,0.1,40,100 -40,intercept,1,35,100,0.1,35,100 -3,LOD,1,0,10,0.1,0,10 -5,incu,1,0,10,0.1,0,10 -13.722355620734675,t_switch,0,0,30,0.1,10,30 -38,level_switch,0,0,40,0.1,33,40 -1000,wane_rate2,1,0,10000,0.1,10,50 -0.12320320500353588,prob_detect,0,0,1,0.1,0.01,0.1 -1,t_unit,1,0,1,0.1,0,1 diff --git a/pars/partab_fitted_nh.csv b/pars/partab_fitted_nh.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 8b00444..0000000 --- a/pars/partab_fitted_nh.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,17 +0,0 @@ -values,names,fixed,lower_bound,upper_bound,steps,lower_start,upper_start -0.1,beta,1,-0.5,0.5,0.1,-0.2,0.2 -1,tshift,1,0,3,0.1,0,10 -5,desired_mode,1,0,7,0.1,0,10 -20.76267782941561,viral_peak,0,0,40,0.1,15,25 -5.21659744798358,obs_sd,0,0,25,0.1,1,10 -0.3902776152740124,sd_mod,1,0,1,0.1,0.4,0.6 -14,sd_mod_wane,1,0,14,0.1,0,14 -40,true_0,1,40,100,0.1,40,100 -40,intercept,1,35,100,0.1,35,100 -3,LOD,1,0,10,0.1,0,10 -5,incu,1,0,10,0.1,0,10 -8.393459329952737,t_switch,0,0,30,0.1,10,30 -33,level_switch,0,0,40,0.1,33,40 -1000,wane_rate2,1,0,10000,0.1,10,50 -0.10985950300164192,prob_detect,0,0,1,0.1,0.01,0.1 -1,t_unit,1,0,1,0.1,0,1 diff --git a/scripts/a.fit_viral_load_model.R b/scripts/a.fit_viral_load_model.R index a1e5a54..cee346f 100644 --- a/scripts/a.fit_viral_load_model.R +++ b/scripts/a.fit_viral_load_model.R @@ -64,7 +64,7 @@ targeted_dat <- tibble(age=ages_observed, prob=desired_probs) pars_hinge2 <- parTab$values names(pars_hinge2) <- parTab$names -pars_hinge2["tshift"] <- 1 + ###################################################### ## COST FUNCTION @@ -327,11 +327,11 @@ if(SAVE_PLOTS){ ggsave("figures/supplement/viral_kinetics_bwh.pdf",p_main,height=6,width=8) ggsave("figures/supplement/viral_kinetics_bwh.png",p_main,height=6,width=8) parTab$values <- pars1 - write_csv(parTab,"pars/partab_fitted_bwh.csv") + #write_csv(parTab,"pars/partab_fitted_bwh.csv") } else { ggsave("figures/supplement/viral_kinetics_nh.pdf",p_main,height=6,width=8) ggsave("figures/supplement/viral_kinetics_nh.png",p_main,height=6,width=8) parTab$values <- pars1 - write_csv(parTab,"pars/partab_fitted_nh.csv") + #write_csv(parTab,"pars/partab_fitted_nh.csv") } }