EAL calculation demo

Author: kevinmilner

src/main/java/scratch/kevin/risk/U3_EAL_ExampleCalc.java

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+package scratch.kevin.risk;
+
+import java.io.File;
+import java.io.IOException;
+import java.util.List;
+
+import org.opensha.commons.data.CSVFile;
+import org.opensha.commons.data.Site;
+import org.opensha.commons.data.TimeSpan;
+import org.opensha.commons.param.Parameter;
+import org.opensha.commons.param.ParameterList;
+import org.opensha.sha.earthquake.ProbEqkRupture;
+import org.opensha.sha.earthquake.ProbEqkSource;
+import org.opensha.sha.earthquake.param.IncludeBackgroundOption;
+import org.opensha.sha.earthquake.param.IncludeBackgroundParam;
+import org.opensha.sha.earthquake.param.ProbabilityModelOptions;
+import org.opensha.sha.earthquake.param.ProbabilityModelParam;
+import org.opensha.sha.imr.AttenRelRef;
+import org.opensha.sha.imr.ScalarIMR;
+import org.opensha.sra.gui.portfolioeal.Asset;
+import org.opensha.sra.gui.portfolioeal.PortfolioParser;
+import org.opensha.sra.vulnerability.Vulnerability;
+import org.opensha.sra.vulnerability.VulnerabilityFetcher;
+import org.opensha.sra.vulnerability.models.SimpleVulnerability;
+
+import com.google.common.base.Preconditions;
+
+import scratch.UCERF3.erf.mean.MeanUCERF3;
+import scratch.UCERF3.erf.mean.MeanUCERF3.Presets;
+
+public class U3_EAL_ExampleCalc {
+
+	public static void main(String[] args) throws IOException {
+		// this is a pretty weird setup; you instantiate the asset by first giving a comma separated list of parameters
+		String assetParamNames = "AssetGroup,AssetID,AssetName,Lat,Lon,ValHi,ValLo,Value,VulnModel,Vs30";
+		// then will pass the values in to the asset; here's a sample from one of Keith's files
+		// the vulnerability model is in the 2nd to last column, and will be looked up
+		String assetValues = "CEA 2019 100pct proxy portfolio,347,06001400100,37.859419,-122.230389,8106,1054,1054,RM1L-m-RES1-DF,627.7137";
+		Asset asset = new Asset(assetParamNames);
+		
+		// you'll notice that the 2nd to last column contained the vulnerability model name
+		// that name is matched against a list of vulnerability functions; there is currently no way to just set your
+		// own custom vulnerability. This is a pretty bad design that really only makes sense in a portfolio context
+		// where you're parsing an input file.
+		
+		// Vulnerability models can be loaded in Keith's 'VUL06' file format. Here's how you could do that
+//		VulnerabilityFetcher.getVulnerabilities(new File("/path/to/vul06.csv"));
+		// or you can put in your own custom implementation like this. we need to make this better...
+//		Vulnerability vuln = new SimpleVulnerability(name, shortName, imType, imLevels, mfdVals, covVals);
+//		VulnerabilityFetcher.getVulnerabilities().put("MyVulnName", vuln);
+		
+		// output file
+		File outputCSV = new File("/tmp/eal_demo.csv");
+		
+		List<String> assetArrayList = PortfolioParser.parseLine(assetValues);
+		String[] assetValueList = assetArrayList.toArray(new String[0]);
+		ParameterList assetParams = asset.getParameterList();
+		Preconditions.checkState(assetParams.size() == assetValueList.length,
+				"Have %s params but %s values", assetParams.size(), assetValueList.length);
+		System.out.println("Asset parameters (before parsing)");
+		for (int p=0; p<assetValueList.length; p++)
+			System.out.println(assetParams.getParameter(p).getName()+":\t"+assetValueList[p]);
+		asset.setAssetParameters(assetValueList);
+		
+		// now we need an ERF, lets use UCERF3 (FM3.1, excluding background seismicity)
+		MeanUCERF3 erf = new MeanUCERF3();
+		erf.setPreset(Presets.FM3_1_BRANCH_AVG);
+		erf.setParameter(IncludeBackgroundParam.NAME, IncludeBackgroundOption.EXCLUDE);
+		// set to poisson, 1 year
+		erf.setParameter(ProbabilityModelParam.NAME, ProbabilityModelOptions.POISSON);
+		erf.getTimeSpan().setDuration(1d);
+		// build the forecast; this will download a data file the first time
+		erf.updateForecast();
+		
+		// max source-site dist in KM
+		double maxDistance = 200d;
+		
+		// also need a GMM, let's use ASK 2014
+		ScalarIMR gmm = AttenRelRef.ASK_2014.get();
+		gmm.setParamDefaults();
+		
+		// this exists in order to supply all required GMM paremeters, e.g. basin depth, that aren't included in the asset
+		// well set those as default. the location and Vs30 value will be overridden automatically when we do the calculation
+		Site site = new Site();
+		for (Parameter<?> param : gmm.getSiteParams())
+			site.addParameter((Parameter<?>) param.clone());
+		
+		// conditional losses for each rupture
+		double[][] rupConditionalLosses = asset.calculateExpectedLossPerRup(gmm, maxDistance, null, site, erf, null);
+		double eal = asset.getAssetEAL();
+		
+		System.out.println("EAL: "+eal);
+		
+		// lets write out the individual losses to a CSV File
+		CSVFile<String> csv = new CSVFile<>(false);
+		
+		csv.addLine("Source ID", "Rupture ID", "Magnitude", "Rate", "Conditional Loss");
+		for (int sourceID=0; sourceID<erf.getNumSources(); sourceID++) {
+			if (rupConditionalLosses[sourceID] == null)
+				// too far away
+				continue;
+			ProbEqkSource source = erf.getSource(sourceID);
+			for (int rupID=0; rupID<source.getNumRuptures(); rupID++) {
+				ProbEqkRupture rup = source.getRupture(rupID);
+				double rate = rup.getMeanAnnualRate(erf.getTimeSpan().getDuration());
+				csv.addLine(sourceID+"", rupID+"", (float)rup.getMag()+"", rate+"", rupConditionalLosses[sourceID][rupID]+"");
+			}
+		}
+		
+		// add EAL at the bottom
+		csv.addLine("");
+		csv.addLine("EAL:", eal+"");
+		
+		csv.writeToFile(outputCSV);
+	}
+
+}