Merge pull request #1934 from fschreyer/hydrogen

Bugfix: Where 2030 capacity bounds are distributed to regions by GDP share, use 2025 GDP instead of 2030 GDP to avoid potential infes in non-SSP2 policy runs

Author: fschreyer

core/bounds.gms

@@ -299,7 +299,7 @@ loop(te$(sameas(te,"ngcc") OR sameas(te,"ngt") OR sameas(te,"gaschp")),
 *' set lower and upper bounds for 2025 based on projects annoucements
 *' from IEA Hydryogen project database:
 *' https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/hydrogen-production-and-infrastructure-projects-database
-*' distribute to regions via GDP share
+*' distribute to regions via GDP share of 2025 (we do not use later time steps as they may have different GDPs depending on the scenario)
 *' in future this should be differentiated by region based on regionalized input data of project announcements
 *' 2 GW(el) at least globally in 2025, about operational capacity as of 2023
 vm_cap.lo("2025",regi,"elh2","1")= 2 * pm_eta_conv("2025",regi,"elh2")*pm_gdp("2025",regi)
@@ -310,9 +310,9 @@ vm_cap.up("2025",regi,"elh2","1")= 20 * pm_eta_conv("2025",regi,"elh2")*pm_gdp("
 
 *** bounds on biomass technologies
 *' set upper bounds on biomass gasification for h2 production, which is not deployed as of 2025
-*' allow for small production of 0.1 EJ/yr at by 2030 for each technology globally, distributed to regions by GDP share
-vm_cap.up("2030",regi,"bioh2","1")= 0.1 / 3.66 * 1e3 / 8760 * pm_gdp("2030",regi) / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2030",regi2));
-vm_cap.up("2030",regi,"bioh2c","1")= 0.1 / 3.66 * 1e3 / 8760 * pm_gdp("2030",regi) / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2030",regi2));
+*' allow for small production of 0.1 EJ/yr at by 2030 for each technology globally, distributed to regions by GDP share in 2025
+vm_cap.up("2030",regi,"bioh2","1")= 0.1 / 3.66 * 1e3 / 8760 * pm_gdp("2025",regi) / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2025",regi2));
+vm_cap.up("2030",regi,"bioh2c","1")= 0.1 / 3.66 * 1e3 / 8760 * pm_gdp("2025",regi) / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2025",regi2));
 *' allow zero vm_deltaCap for bio-H2 up to 2030 to be consistent with above bounds
 vm_deltaCap.lo(t,regi,"bioh2","1")$(t.val le 2030) = 0;
 vm_deltaCap.lo(t,regi,"bioh2c","1")$(t.val le 2030) = 0;

modules/39_CCU/on/bounds.gms

@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ vm_cap.up(t,regi,"h22ch4","1")$(t.val lt 2030) = 0;
 *' upper bounds for near-term trends on liquid synfuels (CCU-fuels) 2025 and 2030
 *' based on project announcements from IEA database
 *' https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/hydrogen-production-and-infrastructure-projects-database
-*' distribute to regions via GDP share
+*' distribute to regions via GDP share of 2025
 *' in future this should be differentiated by region based on regionalized input data of project announcements
 *' 0.5 TWh/yr liquid synfuel production globally at minimum in 2025
 *' corresponds to projects operational as of 2024
@@ -35,8 +35,8 @@ vm_cap.up("2025",regi,"MeOH","1")= 5 / pm_cf("2025",regi,"MeOH") / 8760
 *' 30 TWh/yr liquid synfuel production globally at maximum in 2030,
 *' corresponds to about half of project announcements from IEA database
 vm_cap.up("2030",regi,"MeOH","1")= 30 / pm_cf("2030",regi,"MeOH") / 8760
-                                    * pm_gdp("2030",regi)
-                                    / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2030",regi2));
+                                    * pm_gdp("2025",regi)
+                                    / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2025",regi2));
 
 
 *** switch off CCU in baseline runs (as CO2 capture technologies teCCS are also switched off)