diff --git a/core/bounds.gms b/core/bounds.gms index 91bcbda1fe..1b87c9172d 100755 --- a/core/bounds.gms +++ b/core/bounds.gms @@ -299,7 +299,7 @@ loop(te$(sameas(te,"ngcc") OR sameas(te,"ngt") OR sameas(te,"gaschp")), *' set lower and upper bounds for 2025 based on projects annoucements *' from IEA Hydryogen project database: *' https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/hydrogen-production-and-infrastructure-projects-database -*' distribute to regions via GDP share +*' distribute to regions via GDP share of 2025 (we do not use later time steps as they may have different GDPs depending on the scenario) *' in future this should be differentiated by region based on regionalized input data of project announcements *' 2 GW(el) at least globally in 2025, about operational capacity as of 2023 vm_cap.lo("2025",regi,"elh2","1")= 2 * pm_eta_conv("2025",regi,"elh2")*pm_gdp("2025",regi) @@ -310,9 +310,9 @@ vm_cap.up("2025",regi,"elh2","1")= 20 * pm_eta_conv("2025",regi,"elh2")*pm_gdp(" *** bounds on biomass technologies *' set upper bounds on biomass gasification for h2 production, which is not deployed as of 2025 -*' allow for small production of 0.1 EJ/yr at by 2030 for each technology globally, distributed to regions by GDP share -vm_cap.up("2030",regi,"bioh2","1")= 0.1 / 3.66 * 1e3 / 8760 * pm_gdp("2030",regi) / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2030",regi2)); -vm_cap.up("2030",regi,"bioh2c","1")= 0.1 / 3.66 * 1e3 / 8760 * pm_gdp("2030",regi) / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2030",regi2)); +*' allow for small production of 0.1 EJ/yr at by 2030 for each technology globally, distributed to regions by GDP share in 2025 +vm_cap.up("2030",regi,"bioh2","1")= 0.1 / 3.66 * 1e3 / 8760 * pm_gdp("2025",regi) / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2025",regi2)); +vm_cap.up("2030",regi,"bioh2c","1")= 0.1 / 3.66 * 1e3 / 8760 * pm_gdp("2025",regi) / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2025",regi2)); *' allow zero vm_deltaCap for bio-H2 up to 2030 to be consistent with above bounds vm_deltaCap.lo(t,regi,"bioh2","1")$(t.val le 2030) = 0; vm_deltaCap.lo(t,regi,"bioh2c","1")$(t.val le 2030) = 0; diff --git a/modules/39_CCU/on/bounds.gms b/modules/39_CCU/on/bounds.gms index 66f8a7abdd..0086f9d989 100644 --- a/modules/39_CCU/on/bounds.gms +++ b/modules/39_CCU/on/bounds.gms @@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ vm_cap.up(t,regi,"h22ch4","1")$(t.val lt 2030) = 0; *' upper bounds for near-term trends on liquid synfuels (CCU-fuels) 2025 and 2030 *' based on project announcements from IEA database *' https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/hydrogen-production-and-infrastructure-projects-database -*' distribute to regions via GDP share +*' distribute to regions via GDP share of 2025 *' in future this should be differentiated by region based on regionalized input data of project announcements *' 0.5 TWh/yr liquid synfuel production globally at minimum in 2025 *' corresponds to projects operational as of 2024 @@ -35,8 +35,8 @@ vm_cap.up("2025",regi,"MeOH","1")= 5 / pm_cf("2025",regi,"MeOH") / 8760 *' 30 TWh/yr liquid synfuel production globally at maximum in 2030, *' corresponds to about half of project announcements from IEA database vm_cap.up("2030",regi,"MeOH","1")= 30 / pm_cf("2030",regi,"MeOH") / 8760 - * pm_gdp("2030",regi) - / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2030",regi2)); + * pm_gdp("2025",regi) + / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2025",regi2)); *** switch off CCU in baseline runs (as CO2 capture technologies teCCS are also switched off)