DeathCount.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 11,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Its alive!\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "import statsmodels.api as sm\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "\n",
    "print(\"Its alive!\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 12,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "#Functions\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 13,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "C:\\Users\\whyri\\AppData\\Local\\Temp\\ipykernel_33368\\98068382.py:2: DtypeWarning: Columns (0,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28) have mixed types. Specify dtype option on import or set low_memory=False.\n",
      "  df = pd.read_csv(\"./Utah_Crash_Data_2020.csv\")\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "drop_list = []\n",
    "df = pd.read_csv(\"./Utah_Crash_Data_2020.csv\")\n",
    "df = df.drop([\n",
    "\"CRASH_ID\",\n",
    "# \"CRASH_DATETIME\",\n",
    "# \"CRASH_SEVERITY_ID\",\n",
    "\"ROUTE\",\n",
    "\"MILEPOINT\",\n",
    "\"LAT_UTM_Y\",\n",
    "\"LONG_UTM_X\",\n",
    "\"MAIN_ROAD_NAME\",  \n",
    "\"CITY\",                              \n",
    "\"COUNTY_NAME\",                       \n",
    "\"WORK_ZONE_RELATED\",                 \n",
    "\"PEDESTRIAN_INVOLVED\",               \n",
    "\"BICYCLIST_INVOLVED\",                \n",
    "\"MOTORCYCLE_INVOLVED\",               \n",
    "\"IMPROPER_RESTRAINT\",                \n",
    "\"UNRESTRAINED\",                      \n",
    "\"DUI\",                               \n",
    "\"INTERSECTION_RELATED\",              \n",
    "\"WILD_ANIMAL_RELATED\",               \n",
    "\"DOMESTIC_ANIMAL_RELATED\",           \n",
    "\"OVERTURN_ROLLOVER\",                 \n",
    "\"COMMERCIAL_MOTOR_VEH_INVOLVED\",     \n",
    "\"TEENAGE_DRIVER_INVOLVED\",           \n",
    "\"OLDER_DRIVER_INVOLVED\",             \n",
    "\"NIGHT_DARK_CONDITION\",              \n",
    "\"SINGLE_VEHICLE\",                    \n",
    "\"DISTRACTED_DRIVING\",                \n",
    "\"DROWSY_DRIVING\",                   \n",
    "\"ROADWAY_DEPARTURE\"\n",
    "], axis=1)\n",
    "df = df.dropna()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 14,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "#Takes around 2:30 min to run\n",
    "# df[\"CRASH_MONTH\"] = pd.to_datetime(df[\"CRASH_DATETIME\"]).dt.month\n",
    "# df[\"CRASH_WEEKDAY\"] = pd.to_datetime(df[\"CRASH_DATETIME\"]).dt.day_name()\n",
    "df[\"CRASH_HOUR\"] = pd.to_datetime(df[\"CRASH_DATETIME\"]).dt.hour\n",
    "\n",
    "df = df[df[\"CRASH_SEVERITY_ID\"] >= 4]\n",
    "df = df.drop(columns=[\"CRASH_DATETIME\",\"CRASH_SEVERITY_ID\"])\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 15,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
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       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>382</th>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>292</th>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>238</th>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>245</th>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>180</th>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>137</th>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>24 rows × 24 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "       CRASH_HOUR_0  CRASH_HOUR_1  CRASH_HOUR_2  CRASH_HOUR_3  CRASH_HOUR_4  \\\n",
       "COUNT                                                                         \n",
       "134               1             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "102               0             1             0             0             0   \n",
       "75                0             0             1             0             0   \n",
       "60                0             0             0             1             0   \n",
       "60                0             0             0             0             1   \n",
       "113               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "189               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "265               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "225               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "179               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "192               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "296               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "329               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "323               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "395               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "399               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "408               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "434               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "382               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "292               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "238               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "245               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "180               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "137               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "\n",
       "       CRASH_HOUR_5  CRASH_HOUR_6  CRASH_HOUR_7  CRASH_HOUR_8  CRASH_HOUR_9  \\\n",
       "COUNT                                                                         \n",
       "134               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "102               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "75                0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "60                0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "60                0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "113               1             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "189               0             1             0             0             0   \n",
       "265               0             0             1             0             0   \n",
       "225               0             0             0             1             0   \n",
       "179               0             0             0             0             1   \n",
       "192               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "296               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "329               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "323               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "395               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "399               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "408               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "434               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "382               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "292               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "238               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "245               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "180               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "137               0             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "\n",
       "       ...  CRASH_HOUR_14  CRASH_HOUR_15  CRASH_HOUR_16  CRASH_HOUR_17  \\\n",
       "COUNT  ...                                                               \n",
       "134    ...              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "102    ...              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "75     ...              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "60     ...              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "60     ...              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "113    ...              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "189    ...              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "265    ...              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "225    ...              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "179    ...              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "192    ...              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "296    ...              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "329    ...              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "323    ...              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "395    ...              1              0              0              0   \n",
       "399    ...              0              1              0              0   \n",
       "408    ...              0              0              1              0   \n",
       "434    ...              0              0              0              1   \n",
       "382    ...              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "292    ...              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "238    ...              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "245    ...              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "180    ...              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "137    ...              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "\n",
       "       CRASH_HOUR_18  CRASH_HOUR_19  CRASH_HOUR_20  CRASH_HOUR_21  \\\n",
       "COUNT                                                               \n",
       "134                0              0              0              0   \n",
       "102                0              0              0              0   \n",
       "75                 0              0              0              0   \n",
       "60                 0              0              0              0   \n",
       "60                 0              0              0              0   \n",
       "113                0              0              0              0   \n",
       "189                0              0              0              0   \n",
       "265                0              0              0              0   \n",
       "225                0              0              0              0   \n",
       "179                0              0              0              0   \n",
       "192                0              0              0              0   \n",
       "296                0              0              0              0   \n",
       "329                0              0              0              0   \n",
       "323                0              0              0              0   \n",
       "395                0              0              0              0   \n",
       "399                0              0              0              0   \n",
       "408                0              0              0              0   \n",
       "434                0              0              0              0   \n",
       "382                1              0              0              0   \n",
       "292                0              1              0              0   \n",
       "238                0              0              1              0   \n",
       "245                0              0              0              1   \n",
       "180                0              0              0              0   \n",
       "137                0              0              0              0   \n",
       "\n",
       "       CRASH_HOUR_22  CRASH_HOUR_23  \n",
       "COUNT                                \n",
       "134                0              0  \n",
       "102                0              0  \n",
       "75                 0              0  \n",
       "60                 0              0  \n",
       "60                 0              0  \n",
       "113                0              0  \n",
       "189                0              0  \n",
       "265                0              0  \n",
       "225                0              0  \n",
       "179                0              0  \n",
       "192                0              0  \n",
       "296                0              0  \n",
       "329                0              0  \n",
       "323                0              0  \n",
       "395                0              0  \n",
       "399                0              0  \n",
       "408                0              0  \n",
       "434                0              0  \n",
       "382                0              0  \n",
       "292                0              0  \n",
       "238                0              0  \n",
       "245                0              0  \n",
       "180                1              0  \n",
       "137                0              1  \n",
       "\n",
       "[24 rows x 24 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 15,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df_agg = df.groupby(['CRASH_HOUR']).size().reset_index(name=\"COUNT\")\n",
    "#Although the below columns are numeric, they are categorical because they are a time not a measurement\n",
    "df_agg = pd.get_dummies(df_agg, columns=[\"CRASH_HOUR\"])\n",
    "df_agg.set_index(\"COUNT\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 16,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>CRASH_HOUR_0</th>\n",
       "      <th>CRASH_HOUR_1</th>\n",
       "      <th>CRASH_HOUR_2</th>\n",
       "      <th>CRASH_HOUR_3</th>\n",
       "      <th>CRASH_HOUR_4</th>\n",
       "      <th>CRASH_HOUR_5</th>\n",
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       "      <th>CRASH_HOUR_7</th>\n",
       "      <th>CRASH_HOUR_8</th>\n",
       "      <th>CRASH_HOUR_9</th>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <th>CRASH_HOUR_14</th>\n",
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       "      <th>CRASH_HOUR_17</th>\n",
       "      <th>CRASH_HOUR_18</th>\n",
       "      <th>CRASH_HOUR_19</th>\n",
       "      <th>CRASH_HOUR_20</th>\n",
       "      <th>CRASH_HOUR_21</th>\n",
       "      <th>CRASH_HOUR_22</th>\n",
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       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
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       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>5 rows × 24 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "   CRASH_HOUR_0  CRASH_HOUR_1  CRASH_HOUR_2  CRASH_HOUR_3  CRASH_HOUR_4  \\\n",
       "0             1             0             0             0             0   \n",
       "1             0             1             0             0             0   \n",
       "2             0             0             1             0             0   \n",
       "3             0             0             0             1             0   \n",
       "4             0             0             0             0             1   \n",
       "\n",
       "   CRASH_HOUR_5  CRASH_HOUR_6  CRASH_HOUR_7  CRASH_HOUR_8  CRASH_HOUR_9  ...  \\\n",
       "0             0             0             0             0             0  ...   \n",
       "1             0             0             0             0             0  ...   \n",
       "2             0             0             0             0             0  ...   \n",
       "3             0             0             0             0             0  ...   \n",
       "4             0             0             0             0             0  ...   \n",
       "\n",
       "   CRASH_HOUR_14  CRASH_HOUR_15  CRASH_HOUR_16  CRASH_HOUR_17  CRASH_HOUR_18  \\\n",
       "0              0              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "1              0              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "2              0              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "3              0              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "4              0              0              0              0              0   \n",
       "\n",
       "   CRASH_HOUR_19  CRASH_HOUR_20  CRASH_HOUR_21  CRASH_HOUR_22  CRASH_HOUR_23  \n",
       "0              0              0              0              0              0  \n",
       "1              0              0              0              0              0  \n",
       "2              0              0              0              0              0  \n",
       "3              0              0              0              0              0  \n",
       "4              0              0              0              0              0  \n",
       "\n",
       "[5 rows x 24 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 16,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# Split dataset in features and target variable\n",
    "\n",
    "y = df_agg[\"COUNT\"] # Label\n",
    "X = df_agg.drop(columns=[\"COUNT\"]) # Features\n",
    "X.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 17,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "                            OLS Regression Results                            \n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Dep. Variable:                  COUNT   R-squared:                       1.000\n",
      "Model:                            OLS   Adj. R-squared:                    nan\n",
      "Method:                 Least Squares   F-statistic:                       nan\n",
      "Date:                Wed, 06 Apr 2022   Prob (F-statistic):                nan\n",
      "Time:                        00:02:16   Log-Likelihood:                    inf\n",
      "No. Observations:                  24   AIC:                              -inf\n",
      "Df Residuals:                       0   BIC:                              -inf\n",
      "Df Model:                          23                                         \n",
      "Covariance Type:            nonrobust                                         \n",
      "=================================================================================\n",
      "                    coef    std err          t      P>|t|      [0.025      0.975]\n",
      "---------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_0    134.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_1    102.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_2     75.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_3     60.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_4     60.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_5    113.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_6    189.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_7    265.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_8    225.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_9    179.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_10   192.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_11   296.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_12   329.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_13   323.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_14   395.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_15   399.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_16   408.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_17   434.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_18   382.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_19   292.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_20   238.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_21   245.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_22   180.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "CRASH_HOUR_23   137.0000        nan        nan        nan         nan         nan\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "Omnibus:                      429.259   Durbin-Watson:                     nan\n",
      "Prob(Omnibus):                  0.000   Jarque-Bera (JB):                9.000\n",
      "Skew:                           0.000   Prob(JB):                       0.0111\n",
      "Kurtosis:                       0.000   Cond. No.                         1.00\n",
      "==============================================================================\n",
      "\n",
      "Notes:\n",
      "[1] Standard Errors assume that the covariance matrix of the errors is correctly specified.\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "c:\\Users\\whyri\\OneDrive\\Desktop\\intex_python\\ml-venv2\\lib\\site-packages\\statsmodels\\regression\\linear_model.py:1749: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  return 1 - (np.divide(self.nobs - self.k_constant, self.df_resid)\n",
      "c:\\Users\\whyri\\OneDrive\\Desktop\\intex_python\\ml-venv2\\lib\\site-packages\\statsmodels\\regression\\linear_model.py:1749: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return 1 - (np.divide(self.nobs - self.k_constant, self.df_resid)\n",
      "c:\\Users\\whyri\\OneDrive\\Desktop\\intex_python\\ml-venv2\\lib\\site-packages\\statsmodels\\regression\\linear_model.py:924: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in log\n",
      "  llf = -nobs2*np.log(2*np.pi) - nobs2*np.log(ssr / nobs) - nobs2\n",
      "c:\\Users\\whyri\\OneDrive\\Desktop\\intex_python\\ml-venv2\\lib\\site-packages\\statsmodels\\stats\\stattools.py:50: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  dw = np.sum(diff_resids**2, axis=axis) / np.sum(resids**2, axis=axis)\n",
      "c:\\Users\\whyri\\OneDrive\\Desktop\\intex_python\\ml-venv2\\lib\\site-packages\\statsmodels\\regression\\linear_model.py:1671: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# Set label and features\n",
    "y = df_agg[\"COUNT\"] # Label\n",
    "X = df_agg.drop(columns=[\"COUNT\"]) # Features\n",
    "\n",
    "# Run the multiple linear regression model\n",
    "model = sm.OLS(y, X).fit()\n",
    "\n",
    "# View results\n",
    "print(model.summary())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 18,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
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       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>Actual</th>\n",
       "      <th>Predicted</th>\n",
       "      <th>Residuals (Error)</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>134</td>\n",
       "      <td>134.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>102</td>\n",
       "      <td>102.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>75</td>\n",
       "      <td>75.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>60</td>\n",
       "      <td>60.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>60</td>\n",
       "      <td>60.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>5</th>\n",
       "      <td>113</td>\n",
       "      <td>113.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6</th>\n",
       "      <td>189</td>\n",
       "      <td>189.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>7</th>\n",
       "      <td>265</td>\n",
       "      <td>265.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>8</th>\n",
       "      <td>225</td>\n",
       "      <td>225.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>9</th>\n",
       "      <td>179</td>\n",
       "      <td>179.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "   Actual  Predicted  Residuals (Error)\n",
       "0     134      134.0                0.0\n",
       "1     102      102.0                0.0\n",
       "2      75       75.0                0.0\n",
       "3      60       60.0                0.0\n",
       "4      60       60.0                0.0\n",
       "5     113      113.0                0.0\n",
       "6     189      189.0                0.0\n",
       "7     265      265.0                0.0\n",
       "8     225      225.0                0.0\n",
       "9     179      179.0                0.0"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 18,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df_insample = pd.DataFrame({'Actual':df_agg['COUNT'], \n",
    "                    'Predicted':model.fittedvalues, \n",
    "                    'Residuals (Error)':df_agg['COUNT'] - model.fittedvalues})\n",
    "\n",
    "df_insample.head(10)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 19,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "R2:\t1.0\n",
      "R2-adj:\tnan\n",
      "MAE:\t0.0\n",
      "RMSE:\t0.0\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "def regression_fit(model, y_actual):\n",
    "\n",
    "    y_pred = model.fittedvalues\n",
    "\n",
    "    print(f\"R2:\\t{round(model.rsquared, 4)}\")\n",
    "    print(f\"R2-adj:\\t{round(model.rsquared_adj, 4)}\")\n",
    "    print(f\"MAE:\\t{round(abs(y_pred - y_actual).mean(), 4)}\")\n",
    "    print(f\"RMSE:\\t{round(((y_pred - y_actual)**2).mean() ** (1/2), 4)}\")\n",
    "\n",
    "regression_fit(model, y)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 20,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "MAX:  434\n",
      "MIN:  60\n",
      "MEAN:  235.5\n",
      "MEDIAN:  231.5\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "print(\"MAX: \", df_agg['COUNT'].max())\n",
    "print(\"MIN: \", df_agg['COUNT'].min())\n",
    "print(\"MEAN: \", df_agg['COUNT'].mean())\n",
    "print(\"MEDIAN: \", df_agg['COUNT'].median())"
   ]
  }
 ],
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