diff --git a/reports/2026-02-09-mating-recommendations/data.csv b/reports/2026-02-09-mating-recommendations/data.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..871dfe9 --- /dev/null +++ b/reports/2026-02-09-mating-recommendations/data.csv @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +ewe_lpn,ewe_dob,ewe_bwt,ewe_wwt,ewe_ywt,ewe_pwwt,ewe_nlb,recommended_sire_lpn,requires_external_sire,sire_bwt,sire_wwt,sire_ywt,sire_pwwt,sire_nlb,predicted_bwt,predicted_wwt,predicted_ywt,predicted_pwwt,predicted_nlb,coi,mating_status,notes +6401492020FLE249,2020-02-05,0.243,3.039,3.55,4.611,0.116,6402382024NCS310,FALSE,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.006,2.135,2.276,3.277,0.110,0,Safe,Proven ewe with high-accuracy EBVs +6401492022FLE002,2022-01-23,-0.176,-0.016,-1.363,-0.917,0.055,,TRUE,,,,,,,,,,,Not Recommended,Low growth - needs high-growth ram compensation +6401492023FLE078,2023-02-21,0.305,1.611,0.643,1.592,-0.052,6402382024NCS310,FALSE,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.037,1.421,0.823,1.767,0.026,0,Safe,Moderate performer - suitable for NCS310 +6401492025FLE011,2025-02-17,0,2.19,2.235,3.523,0.178,,TRUE,,,,,,,,,,,Avoid - Father/Daughter,Sired by NCS310 - must use external ram +6401492025FLE024,2025-02-20,0.471,2.839,4.58,4.991,0.124,6402382024NCS310,FALSE,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.120,2.035,2.791,3.467,0.114,0,Safe,Higher BWT - NCS310 will balance +6401492025FLE029,2025-02-21,0.177,2.128,3.645,4.043,0.116,,TRUE,,,,,,,,,,,Avoid - Father/Daughter,Sired by NCS310 - must use external ram +6401492025FLE047,2025-02-24,0.432,2.948,5.038,5.104,0.042,6402382024NCS310,FALSE,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.101,2.090,3.020,3.523,0.073,0,Safe,Excellent yearling weight - NCS310 for BWT control +6401492025FLE082,2025-02-28,0.334,2.694,4.383,4.784,0.113,6402382024NCS310,FALSE,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.052,1.963,2.693,3.363,0.109,0,Safe,Strong balanced growth +6401492025FLE087,2025-03-02,0.352,3.069,5.726,5.898,0.132,6402382024NCS310,FALSE,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.061,2.150,3.364,3.920,0.118,0,Safe,Top growth performer - consider elite external ram +6401492025FLE008,2025-02-16,0.17,2.722,3.656,4.552,0.168,,TRUE,,,,,,,,,,,Avoid - Father/Daughter,Sired by NCS310 - must use external ram diff --git a/reports/2026-02-09-mating-recommendations/report.md b/reports/2026-02-09-mating-recommendations/report.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..00aade2 --- /dev/null +++ b/reports/2026-02-09-mating-recommendations/report.md @@ -0,0 +1,391 @@ +# Mating Recommendations Report — 2026 Breeding Season + +Closes #3 + +**Date**: February 9, 2026 +**Action**: Mating Recommendations — Optimal Sire Pairings +**Breed**: Katahdin +**Animals Analyzed**: 10 females (2 males excluded from mating analysis) +**Database Last Updated**: November 21, 2025 + +--- + +## Executive Summary + +This report provides mating recommendations for 10 Katahdin ewes from Beyond Blessed Farm for the 2026 breeding season. The ewes were evaluated for their genetic strengths and weaknesses, with recommendations focused on: + +- **Growth traits** (WWT, YWT, PWWT) — critical for market lamb production +- **Birth weight management** (BWT) — to minimize lambing difficulties +- **Fertility** (NLB) — to maximize lambs born per ewe + +The flock includes one proven sire (6402382024NCS310) with 25 progeny and high-accuracy EBVs. This ram is recommended as the primary breeding sire, particularly for ewes with lower growth potential. + +--- + +## Ewe Profiles and Recommendations + +### Group 1: High-Growth Ewes (Priority Retention Stock) + +These ewes have exceptional growth traits and should be retained as the foundation of your breeding program. + +#### 6401492025FLE087 — Top Growth Performer + +**Date of Birth**: 3/2/2025 +**Status**: Maiden ewe (no progeny yet) + +| Trait | Value | Accuracy | Breed Position | +|-------|-------|----------|----------------| +| BWT | +0.35 | 63% | 43rd percentile (slightly higher) | +| WWT | +3.07 | 61% | 66th percentile (above average) | +| YWT | +5.73 | 53% | 75th percentile (top quarter) | +| PWWT | +5.90 | 64% | 79th percentile (top quarter) | +| NLB | +0.13 | 44% | 47th percentile (near average) | + +**Strengths**: Exceptional yearling and post-weaning weight — best in the group. Strong early growth. + +**Mating Recommendation**: +- **Primary option**: Use proven sire 6402382024NCS310 to balance her slightly elevated BWT (-0.23 BWT will offset her +0.35) +- **Alternative**: Seek external ram with negative BWT and strong growth to amplify her yearling weight potential +- **Predicted offspring** (with NCS310): BWT +0.06, WWT +2.15, YWT +3.36 + +--- + +#### 6401492025FLE082 — Strong Balanced Growth + +**Date of Birth**: 2/28/2025 +**Status**: Maiden ewe + +| Trait | Value | Accuracy | Breed Position | +|-------|-------|----------|----------------| +| BWT | +0.33 | 65% | 44th percentile (slightly higher) | +| WWT | +2.69 | 63% | 62nd percentile (above average) | +| YWT | +4.38 | 55% | 69th percentile (above average) | +| PWWT | +4.78 | 65% | 72nd percentile (above average) | +| NLB | +0.11 | 45% | 45th percentile (below average) | + +**Strengths**: Consistent above-average growth across all weight stages. + +**Mating Recommendation**: +- **Primary option**: 6402382024NCS310 — proven sire will provide consistency +- **Predicted offspring**: BWT +0.05, WWT +1.95, YWT +2.69 + +--- + +#### 6401492025FLE047 — Excellent Yearling Weight + +**Date of Birth**: 2/24/2025 +**Status**: Maiden ewe + +| Trait | Value | Accuracy | Breed Position | +|-------|-------|----------|----------------| +| BWT | +0.43 | 59% | 40th percentile (slightly higher) | +| WWT | +2.95 | 57% | 65th percentile (above average) | +| YWT | +5.04 | 49% | 72nd percentile (above average) | +| PWWT | +5.10 | 60% | 74th percentile (above average) | +| NLB | +0.04 | 36% | 38th percentile (below average) | + +**Strengths**: Strong market weight potential with excellent yearling performance. + +**Mating Recommendation**: +- **Primary option**: 6402382024NCS310 to manage birth weight +- **Predicted offspring**: BWT +0.10, WWT +2.09, YWT +3.02 + +--- + +#### 6401492025FLE024 — Growth with Higher BWT + +**Date of Birth**: 2/20/2025 +**Status**: Maiden ewe + +| Trait | Value | Accuracy | Breed Position | +|-------|-------|----------|----------------| +| BWT | +0.47 | 60% | 38th percentile (slightly higher) | +| WWT | +2.84 | 58% | 64th percentile (above average) | +| YWT | +4.58 | 49% | 70th percentile (above average) | +| PWWT | +4.99 | 60% | 73rd percentile (above average) | +| NLB | +0.12 | 36% | 46th percentile (below average) | + +**Strengths**: Good growth, but highest BWT in the group. + +**Mating Recommendation**: +- **Essential**: Must use negative BWT sire — 6402382024NCS310 (BWT -0.23) is critical here +- **Predicted offspring**: BWT +0.12, WWT +2.04, YWT +2.79 +- **Caution**: Monitor for lambing ease; consider smaller sire if available + +--- + +### Group 2: Proven Ewes (Mature Producers) + +#### 6401492020FLE249 — Experienced Producer + +**Date of Birth**: 2/5/2020 +**Status**: 6 progeny, highest accuracy in group + +| Trait | Value | Accuracy | Breed Position | +|-------|-------|----------|----------------| +| BWT | +0.24 | 74% | 48th percentile (near average) | +| WWT | +3.04 | 71% | 66th percentile (above average) | +| YWT | +3.55 | 63% | 65th percentile (above average) | +| PWWT | +4.61 | 73% | 71st percentile (above average) | +| NLB | +0.12 | 57% | 45th percentile (below average) | + +**Strengths**: Proven producer with high-accuracy EBVs. Strong growth across all stages. + +**Mating Recommendation**: +- **Primary option**: 6402382024NCS310 for consistent offspring quality +- **Alternative**: This ewe's proven track record makes her a good candidate for trying a new outside ram +- **Predicted offspring** (with NCS310): BWT +0.00, WWT +2.14, YWT +2.28 + +--- + +#### 6401492022FLE002 — Low Growth, Easy Lambing + +**Date of Birth**: 1/23/2022 +**Status**: 5 progeny, genotyped (50K) + +| Trait | Value | Accuracy | Breed Position | +|-------|-------|----------|----------------| +| BWT | -0.18 | 66% | 67th percentile (low — good) | +| WWT | -0.02 | 64% | 33rd percentile (below average) | +| YWT | -1.36 | 55% | 40th percentile (below average) | +| PWWT | -0.92 | 66% | 38th percentile (below average) | +| NLB | +0.06 | 50% | 40th percentile (below average) | + +**Strengths**: Excellent negative BWT means easy lambing. Genotyped for precision breeding. + +**Weaknesses**: Below-average growth across all traits. + +**Mating Recommendation**: +- **Critical**: Must use high-growth sire to compensate for her low growth EBVs +- **Not recommended**: 6402382024NCS310 (moderate growth) — seek external ram with WWT > +3.0 and YWT > +5.0 +- **Strategy**: Her low BWT allows use of higher BWT sires without lambing difficulty +- **Consider**: Culling if high-growth rams unavailable + +--- + +#### 6401492023FLE078 — Moderate Performance + +**Date of Birth**: 2/21/2023 +**Status**: No progeny yet + +| Trait | Value | Accuracy | Breed Position | +|-------|-------|----------|----------------| +| BWT | +0.31 | 64% | 45th percentile (near average) | +| WWT | +1.61 | 62% | 50th percentile (average) | +| YWT | +0.64 | 52% | 50th percentile (average) | +| PWWT | +1.59 | 61% | 53rd percentile (average) | +| NLB | -0.05 | 50% | 29th percentile (below average) | + +**Strengths**: Balanced, average performance across traits. + +**Weaknesses**: Below-average fertility prediction. + +**Mating Recommendation**: +- **Primary option**: 6402382024NCS310 +- **Alternative**: Seek ram with higher NLB to boost fertility in offspring +- **Predicted offspring**: BWT +0.04, WWT +1.42, YWT +0.82 + +--- + +### Group 3: Young Stock (First-Time Breeders) + +#### 6401492025FLE008 — Good Growth, Strong Fertility + +**Date of Birth**: 2/16/2025 +**Status**: Maiden ewe + +| Trait | Value | Accuracy | Breed Position | +|-------|-------|----------|----------------| +| BWT | +0.17 | 62% | 52nd percentile (near average) | +| WWT | +2.72 | 61% | 63rd percentile (above average) | +| YWT | +3.66 | 53% | 65th percentile (above average) | +| PWWT | +4.55 | 63% | 71st percentile (above average) | +| NLB | +0.17 | 44% | 50th percentile (average) | + +**Strengths**: Best NLB in the group, good growth, manageable BWT. + +**Mating Recommendation**: +- **Primary option**: Use an unrelated external Katahdin ram with strong growth and fertility EBVs and a **Green** COI rating when checked against this ewe. +- **Notes**: Do **not** mate this ewe to 6402382024NCS310, as she is his daughter; select an external sire using current NSIP data, and interpret predicted offspring EBVs based on the chosen ram's profile. + +--- + +#### 6401492025FLE029 — Moderate All-Rounder + +**Date of Birth**: 2/21/2025 +**Status**: Maiden ewe + +| Trait | Value | Accuracy | Breed Position | +|-------|-------|----------|----------------| +| BWT | +0.18 | 58% | 51st percentile (near average) | +| WWT | +2.13 | 56% | 56th percentile (above average) | +| YWT | +3.65 | 49% | 65th percentile (above average) | +| PWWT | +4.04 | 59% | 68th percentile (above average) | +| NLB | +0.12 | 41% | 45th percentile (below average) | + +**Strengths**: Balanced profile, lower BWT. + +**Mating Recommendation**: +- **Primary option**: Use an unrelated external ram (not 6402382024NCS310) due to close sire–daughter relationship and inbreeding risk. + +--- + +#### 6401492025FLE011 — Good Fertility Potential + +**Date of Birth**: 2/17/2025 +**Status**: Maiden ewe + +| Trait | Value | Accuracy | Breed Position | +|-------|-------|----------|----------------| +| BWT | +0.00 | 61% | 59th percentile (average) | +| WWT | +2.19 | 59% | 57th percentile (above average) | +| YWT | +2.23 | 52% | 58th percentile (above average) | +| PWWT | +3.52 | 61% | 64th percentile (above average) | +| NLB | +0.18 | 45% | 51st percentile (above average) | + +**Strengths**: Highest NLB in group (tied with FLE008), zero BWT. + +**Mating Recommendation**: +- **Primary option**: Use an unrelated external Katahdin ram (NSIP-ranked, Green COI) to introduce new genetics and avoid inbreeding with 6402382024NCS310, who is her sire. +- **Notes**: Do **not** mate this ewe to 6402382024NCS310 (father–daughter mating). When selecting an external ram, target below-average BWT with above-average WWT/YWT and maintain or improve NLB. + +--- + +## Breeding Strategy Recommendations + +### 1. Use of On-Farm Sire: 6402382024NCS310 + +**Profile**: +- **Proven sire**: 25 progeny, high accuracy (BWT: 80%, WWT: 78%, PWWT: 80%) +- **Key trait**: Negative BWT (-0.23) — critical for managing lambing ease +- **Moderate growth**: WWT +1.23, YWT +1.00, PWWT +1.94 + +**Best suited for**: +- Ewes with higher BWT (FLE087, FLE082, FLE047, FLE024) +- First-time lambing ewes in this analysis group +- Ewes where lambing ease is priority over maximum growth + +**Predicted offspring quality**: +- Easy lambing (low to negative BWT) +- Moderate to good growth +- Reliable outcomes due to high accuracy + +--- + +### 2. External Ram Sourcing Strategy + +For maximum genetic progress, consider acquiring an external ram for: + +**Target profile**: +- **BWT**: -0.2 to +0.1 (lower for ewes with higher BWT) +- **WWT**: +3.0 or higher (to boost weaning weight) +- **YWT**: +5.0 or higher (for market lamb production) +- **PWWT**: +4.0 or higher +- **NLB**: +0.15 or higher (to improve fertility) +- **Accuracy**: 60%+ preferred (some progeny-tested data) + +**Priority ewes for external ram**: +- 6401492022FLE002 — needs high-growth ram to compensate for her low EBVs +- 6401492025FLE087 — top growth ewe could benefit from elite ram to maximize offspring potential + +--- + +### 3. Inbreeding Management + +All recommended matings with 6402382024NCS310 have been evaluated for inbreeding risk. Key findings: + +| Ewe | Relationship to NCS310 | COI (predicted) | Status | +|-----|------------------------|-----------------|--------| +| 6401492025FLE011 | Same sire (NCS310) | ≥ 25.0% — Red | **Avoid — father-daughter mating** | +| 6401492025FLE029 | Same sire (NCS310) | ≥ 25.0% — Red | **Avoid — father-daughter mating** | +| 6401492025FLE008 | Same sire (NCS310) | ≥ 25.0% — Red | **Avoid — father-daughter mating** | +| All others | Unrelated or distant | < 6.25% — Green | **Safe to proceed** | + +**Critical**: Three ewes (FLE011, FLE029, FLE008) are sired by NCS310 and **must not** be bred to him. These ewes require an external ram. + +--- + +### 4. Trait Priorities for 2026 + +Based on flock analysis: + +1. **Growth (WWT, YWT, PWWT)** — Top priority for market lamb production +2. **Birth weight management** — Several ewes have higher BWT; must use negative BWT sires +3. **Fertility (NLB)** — Flock average is below breed midpoint; needs improvement +4. **Accuracy** — Young ewes (born 2025) have lower accuracy; their EBVs may change with progeny data + +--- + +## Breed Context — Katahdin Trait Ranges + +| Trait | Minimum | Maximum | Midpoint | Flock Average (Ewes Only) | +|-------|---------|---------|----------|---------------------------| +| BWT | -0.89 lbs | 1.30 lbs | 0.21 lbs | +0.22 lbs (slightly high) | +| WWT | -3.02 lbs | 6.15 lbs | 1.57 lbs | +2.27 lbs (above average) | +| YWT | -9.50 lbs | 10.67 lbs | 0.59 lbs | +2.76 lbs (well above average) | +| PWWT | -7.10 lbs | 9.38 lbs | 1.14 lbs | +3.77 lbs (well above average) | +| NLB | -0.36 lambs | 0.69 lambs | 0.17 lambs | +0.09 lambs (below average) | + +**Flock strengths**: Excellent growth traits (WWT, YWT, PWWT) — well above breed average. + +**Improvement opportunities**: +- BWT slightly elevated — continue using negative BWT sires +- NLB below breed midpoint — prioritize high-fertility rams in future acquisitions + +--- + +## Action Items for 2026 Breeding Season + +### Immediate Actions + +1. **Do Not Breed** to 6402382024NCS310: + - 6401492025FLE011 (daughter) + - 6401492025FLE029 (daughter) + - 6401492025FLE008 (daughter) + +2. **Source External Ram** for: + - Priority 1: Three daughters of NCS310 (FLE011, FLE029, FLE008) + - Priority 2: 6401492022FLE002 (low growth — requires external high-growth ram; NCS310 only as absolute **last resort**) + - Priority 3: 6401492025FLE087 (top ewe — maximize genetic progress) + +3. **Breed to NCS310**: + - 6401492020FLE249 + - 6401492023FLE078 + - 6401492025FLE024 + - 6401492025FLE047 + - 6401492025FLE082 + - 6401492025FLE087 (if no elite ram available) + +### Long-Term Strategy + +1. **Ram Acquisition**: Budget for an external ram with target traits: BWT < +0.1, WWT > +3.0, YWT > +5.0, NLB > +0.15 + +2. **Ewe Retention**: Prioritize keeping FLE087, FLE082, FLE047, FLE024 — these are your top growth genetics + +3. **Culling Consideration**: 6401492022FLE002 if high-growth rams not available — her low growth will drag flock average down + +4. **Record Keeping**: Track lambing ease, weaning weights, and lamb survival for all 2026 offspring to update EBV accuracy + +5. **Genetic Diversity**: Avoid overuse of NCS310 — aim for no more than 30% of 2026 lamb crop sired by any single ram + +--- + +## Trait Glossary + +- **BWT** (Birth Weight): Weight at birth in lbs. **Lower is better** — reduces lambing difficulties. +- **WWT** (Weaning Weight): Weight at ~60 days in lbs. **Higher is better** — faster early growth. +- **YWT** (Yearling Weight): Weight at ~12 months in lbs. **Higher is better** — key for market lamb production. +- **PWWT** (Post-Weaning Weight): Growth after weaning in lbs. **Higher is better**. +- **NLB** (Number of Lambs Born): Fertility trait — lambs per lambing. **Higher is better** — more lambs per ewe. + +**Accuracy** indicates EBV reliability: +- < 40%: Low (no progeny data) +- 40-60%: Moderate (limited progeny data) +- 60-80%: High (good progeny data) +- > 80%: Very high (extensive progeny testing) + +**Predicted Offspring EBVs**: Calculated as midparent values: `(sire_EBV + dam_EBV) / 2` + +--- + +*Report generated from NSIP database, last updated November 21, 2025. EBV values may change as more performance data becomes available.*