BMC-module-1-2-notes-GDP-monitoring.txt

9:59 AM 8/16/2024

BMC 1.2: Monitoring GDP



Real GDP growth is the most definitive and authoritative barometer of the overall economy.

It is painstakingly calculated through hundreds of data sources.

GDP = C + I + G + (X - M)


After the end of a quarter, the GDP report (from the BEA within the DoC),
	as a preliminary calculation, takes a month to come out.

This is not particularly useful, as there are more frequently and more timely
	indicators that are correlated with GDP:
		- nonfarm payroll: NFP TCH index
		- purchasing managers' index: NAPMPMI index
			[good indicator for the manufacturing and service sectors]

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Example: Jan 1st 2014
	1. Look at WECO (world economic calendar)
		Click on US to see a chronological list of economic indicators that will be released

		First, the NAPMPMI index will be published on 2/3/14
		Second, the NFP TCH index will be published on 2/7/14
		Third, housing starts will be published on 2/19/14
		Fourth, CPI (inflation) will be published on 2/20/14

			For all four, there will be columns for Actual and Surv(M)
			- Surv(M) is the median expectation of analyst
		
			All four of thesse are monthly indicators that are correlated with real GDP growth
			These four are monthly, whereas GDP is quarterly (Q1 released 4/30/14)

		PMI was Alan Greenspan's "desert island" statistic