After playing a few games of Coup, I noticed that the endgame scenario is often a 1 influence vs 1 influence match, where both players have strong suspicions about the true identity of each other’s card.
In these scenarios, the outcome is predictable based on the influence and coin amount of each player.
Unless there’s been some crazy bluffing going on, victory often comes down to making moves early that put you in a favourable endgame position.
couSim.py runs an endgame sim for all possible influence & coin amount combination and figures out the victor in each combination, assuming rational play from both players.