publish note 18

DS-100 · Oct 27, 2023 · 2da2676 · 2da2676
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diff --git a/_quarto.yml b/_quarto.yml
@@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ book:
         - case_study_HCE/case_study_HCE.qmd
         - cv_regularization/cv_reg.qmd
         - probability_1/probability_1.qmd
-        # - probability_2/probability_2.qmd
+        - probability_2/probability_2.qmd
         # - case_study_climate/case_study_climate.qmd
         # - inference_causality/inference_causality.qmd
         # - sql_I/sql_I.qmd

diff --git a/docs/case_study_HCE/case_study_HCE.html b/docs/case_study_HCE/case_study_HCE.html
@@ -248,6 +248,12 @@
   <a href="../probability_1/probability_1.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
  <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">17</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Random Variables</span></span></a>
   </div>
+</li>
+        <li class="sidebar-item">
+  <div class="sidebar-item-container"> 
+  <a href="../probability_2/probability_2.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
+ <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">18</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Estimators, Bias, and Variance</span></span></a>
+  </div>
 </li>
     </ul>
     </div>

diff --git a/docs/constant_model_loss_transformations/loss_transformations.html b/docs/constant_model_loss_transformations/loss_transformations.html
@@ -250,6 +250,12 @@
   <a href="../probability_1/probability_1.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
  <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">17</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Random Variables</span></span></a>
   </div>
+</li>
+        <li class="sidebar-item">
+  <div class="sidebar-item-container"> 
+  <a href="../probability_2/probability_2.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
+ <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">18</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Estimators, Bias, and Variance</span></span></a>
+  </div>
 </li>
     </ul>
     </div>

diff --git a/docs/cv_regularization/cv_reg.html b/docs/cv_regularization/cv_reg.html
@@ -253,6 +253,12 @@
   <a href="../probability_1/probability_1.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
  <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">17</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Random Variables</span></span></a>
   </div>
+</li>
+        <li class="sidebar-item">
+  <div class="sidebar-item-container"> 
+  <a href="../probability_2/probability_2.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
+ <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">18</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Estimators, Bias, and Variance</span></span></a>
+  </div>
 </li>
     </ul>
     </div>

diff --git a/docs/eda/eda.html b/docs/eda/eda.html
@@ -253,6 +253,12 @@
   <a href="../probability_1/probability_1.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
  <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">17</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Random Variables</span></span></a>
   </div>
+</li>
+        <li class="sidebar-item">
+  <div class="sidebar-item-container"> 
+  <a href="../probability_2/probability_2.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
+ <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">18</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Estimators, Bias, and Variance</span></span></a>
+  </div>
 </li>
     </ul>
     </div>

diff --git a/docs/feature_engineering/feature_engineering.html b/docs/feature_engineering/feature_engineering.html
@@ -253,6 +253,12 @@
   <a href="../probability_1/probability_1.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
  <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">17</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Random Variables</span></span></a>
   </div>
+</li>
+        <li class="sidebar-item">
+  <div class="sidebar-item-container"> 
+  <a href="../probability_2/probability_2.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
+ <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">18</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Estimators, Bias, and Variance</span></span></a>
+  </div>
 </li>
     </ul>
     </div>

diff --git a/docs/gradient_descent/gradient_descent.html b/docs/gradient_descent/gradient_descent.html
diff --git a/docs/index.html b/docs/index.html
@@ -221,6 +221,12 @@
   <a href="./probability_1/probability_1.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
  <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">17</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Random Variables</span></span></a>
   </div>
+</li>
+        <li class="sidebar-item">
+  <div class="sidebar-item-container"> 
+  <a href="./probability_2/probability_2.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
+ <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">18</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Estimators, Bias, and Variance</span></span></a>
+  </div>
 </li>
     </ul>
     </div>

diff --git a/docs/intro_lec/introduction.html b/docs/intro_lec/introduction.html
@@ -214,6 +214,12 @@
   <a href="../probability_1/probability_1.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
  <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">17</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Random Variables</span></span></a>
   </div>
+</li>
+        <li class="sidebar-item">
+  <div class="sidebar-item-container"> 
+  <a href="../probability_2/probability_2.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
+ <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">18</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Estimators, Bias, and Variance</span></span></a>
+  </div>
 </li>
     </ul>
     </div>

diff --git a/docs/intro_to_modeling/intro_to_modeling.html b/docs/intro_to_modeling/intro_to_modeling.html
@@ -250,6 +250,12 @@
   <a href="../probability_1/probability_1.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
  <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">17</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Random Variables</span></span></a>
   </div>
+</li>
+        <li class="sidebar-item">
+  <div class="sidebar-item-container"> 
+  <a href="../probability_2/probability_2.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
+ <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">18</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Estimators, Bias, and Variance</span></span></a>
+  </div>
 </li>
     </ul>
     </div>

diff --git a/docs/intro_to_modeling/intro_to_modeling_files/figure-html/cell-2-output-1.png b/docs/intro_to_modeling/intro_to_modeling_files/figure-html/cell-2-output-1.png
diff --git a/docs/ols/ols.html b/docs/ols/ols.html
@@ -253,6 +253,12 @@
   <a href="../probability_1/probability_1.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
  <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">17</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Random Variables</span></span></a>
   </div>
+</li>
+        <li class="sidebar-item">
+  <div class="sidebar-item-container"> 
+  <a href="../probability_2/probability_2.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
+ <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">18</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Estimators, Bias, and Variance</span></span></a>
+  </div>
 </li>
     </ul>
     </div>

diff --git a/docs/pandas_1/pandas_1.html b/docs/pandas_1/pandas_1.html
@@ -253,6 +253,12 @@
   <a href="../probability_1/probability_1.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
  <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">17</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Random Variables</span></span></a>
   </div>
+</li>
+        <li class="sidebar-item">
+  <div class="sidebar-item-container"> 
+  <a href="../probability_2/probability_2.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
+ <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">18</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Estimators, Bias, and Variance</span></span></a>
+  </div>
 </li>
     </ul>
     </div>

diff --git a/docs/pandas_2/pandas_2.html b/docs/pandas_2/pandas_2.html
@@ -251,6 +251,12 @@
   <a href="../probability_1/probability_1.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
  <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">17</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Random Variables</span></span></a>
   </div>
+</li>
+        <li class="sidebar-item">
+  <div class="sidebar-item-container"> 
+  <a href="../probability_2/probability_2.html" class="sidebar-item-text sidebar-link">
+ <span class="menu-text"><span class="chapter-number">18</span>&nbsp; <span class="chapter-title">Estimators, Bias, and Variance</span></span></a>
+  </div>
 </li>
     </ul>
     </div>
@@ -1635,12 +1641,12 @@ <h3 data-number="3.3.4" class="anchored" data-anchor-id="sample"><span class="he
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr class="odd">
-<td data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">326118</td>
+<td data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">332996</td>
 <td>CA</td>
 <td>M</td>
-<td>1993</td>
-<td>Claude</td>
-<td>13</td>
+<td>1996</td>
+<td>Conor</td>
+<td>80</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
@@ -1667,34 +1673,34 @@ <h3 data-number="3.3.4" class="anchored" data-anchor-id="sample"><span class="he
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr class="odd">
-<td data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">282623</td>
-<td>1969</td>
-<td>Romeo</td>
-<td>12</td>
+<td data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">45920</td>
+<td>1962</td>
+<td>Wanda</td>
+<td>226</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
-<td data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">246226</td>
-<td>1926</td>
-<td>Jimmie</td>
-<td>64</td>
+<td data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">240892</td>
+<td>1915</td>
+<td>Neil</td>
+<td>12</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
-<td data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">244230</td>
-<td>1922</td>
-<td>Reno</td>
-<td>7</td>
+<td data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">36292</td>
+<td>1956</td>
+<td>Jerry</td>
+<td>19</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
-<td data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">331915</td>
-<td>1995</td>
-<td>Kawika</td>
-<td>7</td>
+<td data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">112570</td>
+<td>1989</td>
+<td>Sinai</td>
+<td>5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
-<td data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">36612</td>
-<td>1956</td>
-<td>Bernadine</td>
-<td>9</td>
+<td data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">142564</td>
+<td>1998</td>
+<td>Ivana</td>
+<td>54</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
@@ -1720,28 +1726,28 @@ <h3 data-number="3.3.4" class="anchored" data-anchor-id="sample"><span class="he
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr class="odd">
-<td data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">151682</td>
+<td data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">344825</td>
 <td>2000</td>
-<td>Anusha</td>
-<td>7</td>
+<td>Klaus</td>
+<td>5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
-<td data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">343443</td>
+<td data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">343842</td>
 <td>2000</td>
-<td>Chaz</td>
-<td>16</td>
+<td>Lino</td>
+<td>10</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
-<td data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">344278</td>
+<td data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">344267</td>
 <td>2000</td>
-<td>Kerry</td>
+<td>Juandiego</td>
 <td>7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
-<td data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">344225</td>
+<td data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">150845</td>
 <td>2000</td>
-<td>Gianluca</td>
-<td>7</td>
+<td>Collette</td>
+<td>12</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
@@ -2308,7 +2314,7 @@ <h2 data-number="3.5" class="anchored" data-anchor-id="aggregating-data-with-.gr
 <div class="cell" data-execution_count="40">
 <div class="sourceCode cell-code" id="cb53"><pre class="sourceCode python code-with-copy"><code class="sourceCode python"><span id="cb53-1"><a href="#cb53-1" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>babynames.groupby(<span class="st">"Year"</span>)</span></code><button title="Copy to Clipboard" class="code-copy-button"><i class="bi"></i></button></pre></div>
 <div class="cell-output cell-output-display" data-execution_count="40">
-<pre><code>&lt;pandas.core.groupby.generic.DataFrameGroupBy object at 0x7fbabb69aec0&gt;</code></pre>
+<pre><code>&lt;pandas.core.groupby.generic.DataFrameGroupBy object at 0x7fe2025fbca0&gt;</code></pre>
 </div>
 </div>
 <p>What does this strange output mean? Calling <a href="https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/reference/api/pandas.DataFrame.groupby.html"><code>.groupby</code></a> has generated a <code>GroupBy</code> object. You can imagine this as a set of “mini” sub-DataFrames, where each subframe contains all of the rows from <code>babynames</code> that correspond to a particular year.</p>

diff --git a/docs/pandas_3/pandas_3.html b/docs/pandas_3/pandas_3.html
diff --git a/docs/probability_1/images/SD_change.png b/docs/probability_1/images/SD_change.png