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damontoth authored Nov 5, 2024
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[![pkgdown](https://github.com/EpiForeSITE/branching_process/actions/workflows/pkgdown.yaml/badge.svg)](https://github.com/EpiForeSITE/branching_process/actions/workflows/pkgdown.yaml)
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## Branching process outbreak simulator

Quantifies risk posed by individual importers of a novel transmissible
pathogen to a generic population, with intervention effects.
Scenarios(s) Modeled: Novel introduction of transmissible pathogen by
infected traveler, by accidentally infected laboratory worker, or
similar scenario; intervention scenarios for improved detection of
initial case and for delayed mitigation after ongoing outbreak is
detected.
## Infectious disease outbreak quantification using a branching process model with negative binomial offspring distribution

This package provides functions that quantify infectious disease outbreaks
using a branching process, a stochastic process in which each individual in
generation n produces a random number of individuals in generation n+1,
continuing for some number of generations or until there are no individuals
remaining.

The random number of next-generation individuals produced by each individual
is drawn from the offspring distribution, a discrete probability distribution
with non-negative range. To model infectious disease outbreaks, it is common
to use a negative binomial offspring distribution, parameterized by the mean
`R` and dispersion parameter `k`. This parameterization is equivalent to
using mu = R and size = k in R's "NegBinomial", e.g. dnbinom(x, mu=R, size=k) would give the density, i.e. the probability of exactly x transmissions from one individual.

The functions in the package can be used to quantify the risk posed by individual importers of a novel transmissible
pathogen to a generic population, including intervention effects. They can also be used for transmission parameter estimation, e.g. via maximum likelihood, for observed outbreak clusters, such as the basic reproduction number, a dispersion parameter quantifying variance in transmission, and a post-control reproduction number.

Many functions in the package were used in the following publications.

- Toth D, Gundlapalli A, Khader K, Pettey W, Rubin M, Adler F, Samore M
(2015). Estimates of outbreak risk from new introductions of Ebola
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