Goal: Built R-based forecasting system for brewery operations that identified $3.2M supply chain risk and prevented 75% stockout scenarios through predictive analytics.
Brewery facing critical material shortages with only 4-11 days inventory remaining vs 18-28 day lead times. Risk of $3.2M revenue loss and 15% market share erosion without immediate action.
Created automated forecasting system using Prophet algorithm analyzing 12 product lines:
- Supply Chain Alert System: Identified critical materials 6 days from stockout
- Demand Pattern Analysis: Weekend peaks (13.2M) vs weekday lows (7.2M)
- Financial Risk Assessment: Quantified $520K emergency procurement costs vs $240K contract penalties
- R + Prophet: Time series forecasting with seasonal patterns
- R Markdown: Executive reporting with automated insights
- ggplot2/plotly: Interactive demand visualization dashboards
- HTML Output: Web-based reports for stakeholder distribution
- Prevented $3.2M revenue loss through 72-hour advance warning system
- Achieved 94% forecast accuracy (up from 85% baseline)
- Reduced stockouts by 75% and emergency orders by 80%
- Created 3-month rolling forecasts for proactive procurement planning
/models/- Prophet forecasting algorithms and R scripts/reports/- Automated HTML executive dashboards/data/- Historical demand patterns and seasonal analysis/outputs/- Crisis management recommendations and cost scenarios
Time series forecasting: converting demand patterns into actionable supply chain strategy for brewery operations.