Caseload Forecasting Project

For sharing data, scripts, and documentation. For storing readings and other resources.

Goals

The overarching goal of this project is to develop accurate caseload projections that the Judiciary can use to effectively plan for the future. To that end, there are multiple sub-goals:

Sub-goals

• Develop multiple caseload forecasting models using a variety of methods including time-series forecasting and other statistical models; forecasting tournaments, prediction markets, and related aggregation/wisdom-of-the-crowd methods; and heuristics.
• Assess the accuracy of these models on a monthly, quarterly, and yearly basis and refine as needed.
• Apply these models to forecast caseloads, case age, and other variables for the purpose of planning.

There are a number of proximate, concrete project goals. They include the following:
The Judiciary's Multi-year Program and Financial Plan (PFP)

• Generate 5 year projections for caseloads in each ciruit and in the appellate courts.
• Generate 5-year projections for time to disposition in the trial courts and time to decision in appellate courts.

Documentation and Resources

Documentation and resources can be found on the wiki.

Data

[Use this space to explain how data are organized.]

Scripts

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Links

Caseload Forecasting
Backlog Reduction Simulator by NCSC
Assessing Needs and Caseload Forecasting by NCSC
Recommendations for Using Weighted Caseload Models in the Pandemic by NCSC