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Forecasting Nutria Invasion in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

Where are the California nutria now, where are they going, and when will they get there?

Project Description:

Nutria (Myocastor coypus) are an invasive species that were recently discovered in the southern San Joaquin River watershed. This project will help IEP agencies identify impacted and at risk habitats and to quantify the rate of advancement in the Delta. To do this, we will identify habitat and forecast distributions of nutria in the Delta. This is a synthesis project that will use existing data to produce models and maps to aid detection and eradication planning.

Project Need:

Nutria damage wetland habitats and water control infrastructure through their feeding and burrowing behaviors. This could impact existing fish habitats and restoration sites through physical damage and impacts to water quality. Modeling potential habitat would increase efficiency of ground searches by combining information from the literature and other invaded areas with maps of habitat information for California to prioritize search areas. Forecasting when nutria might arrive at different locations in the Delta is a question of management concern, especially as it relates to ranges of endangered species and water infrastructure. A simulation model can be used to run different scenarios so that we have an idea of what to expect in the future. Early detection and removal of invaders is key to limiting their impact and the cost of control. This proactive approach will give IEP member agencies early warning of potential impacts and help agencies prioritize search areas. Managers can use this information to prepare and identify resources.

Project Objectives:

  • Determine potential habitat for nutria in the Delta using existing data
  • Predict how the range of nutria will likely expand
  • Predict when the range of nutria will likely reach areas of management interest in the Delta

Schedule of Milestones:

December 2018 - Form team, Set up collaborations
June 2019 - Compile habitat data
December 2019 - Complete habitat model & report
June 2020 - Complete dispersal simulation
December 2020 - Complete tools for management use & dispersal report

nutria in water eating a root
Invasive nutria feed on the roots of plants, which damages wetland habitats.
photo: Tsaag Valren/Wikimedia.org

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