Compartmental model representing the transmission dynamics of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) among waterfowl and backyard poultry farms. Findings from this model are included in the manuscript titled "Transmission dynamics of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza among multiple waterfowl species and backyard poultry: the impact of the stopover period". Authors: Sebastian G. Llanos-Soto, Dylan Yaffy, Marina Pavlak, and Renata Ivanek. The R script is titled "Mathematical model - HPAI introduction via migratory birds.R" and can be found accompanying this readme file.
The model assesses the transmission dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) among wild birds and backyard poultry farms. Its main objective is to understand how timing of migration and the duration of the stopover period of mallards influences the probability of HPAI infection in backyard poultry farms. The model consider 4 important animal components:
- migratory mute swans,
- migratory mallards,
- resident mallards, and
- backyard poultry farms
Additionally, it considers an environmental compartment where HPAI survives for a short period. The model accounts for intras-pecific direct transmission of HPAI in wild birds (frequency-dependent) and indirect transmission between HPAI in the environment and birds.