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add link to app to vignette
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see24 committed Jan 18, 2024
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theme_set(theme_bw())
```

caribouMetrics provides a simple Bayesian population model that integrates prior information from Johnson et al.'s (2020) national analysis of demographic-disturbance relationships with available local demographic data to project population growth. In addition, methods are provided for simulating local population dynamics and monitoring programs.
caribouMetrics provides a simple Bayesian population model that integrates prior information from Johnson et al.'s (2020) national analysis of demographic-disturbance relationships with available local demographic data to project population growth. In addition, methods are provided for simulating local population dynamics and monitoring programs. These tools are also available through a shiny app described [below](#Use-the-Bayesian-demographic-projection-app).

Boreal caribou monitoring programs typically involve marking caribou with telemetry GPS/VHF collars which are used to monitor caribou over time and detect the death of marked animals. This data is then used to estimate survival, while recruitment is estimated by locating collared individuals using aircraft and then surveying the entire group of caribou to estimate the ratio of cows:calves in the group. Because this estimate is based on more than just the sample of collared cows, the sample size for recruitment estimates is typically larger than for survival.

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### Modifying Bayesian model priors
By default `caribouBayesianIPM()` calls `getPriors()` internally to set the priors for the Bayesian model based on the national model and default uncertainty modifiers that have been calibrated to fit the national model while allowing for deviations based on local data. The parameters to `getPriors()` affect the level of uncertainty around the coefficients from the national model. If uncertainty in the national model is higher then the projections can deviate more from the national model if the observed data does. See `getPriors()` for details.

### Troubleshooting
## Troubleshooting
The national model results are cached if the default values are used. This cache can be updated by running `getSimsNational(forceUpdate = TRUE)`

# Use the Bayesian demographic projection app

In addition to performing Bayesian demographic projections in R you can also use our shiny app to run similar analyses from a Graphical User Interface. To launch the app you will first need to install the package from GitHub.

```{r eval=FALSE}
#install.packages("remotes")
remotes::install_github("LandSciTech/BayesianCaribouDemographicProjection")
```

Then you can call `demographicProjectionApp()` to launch the app in your default browser. The app includes options to modify the disturbance scenario, the simulated observations and the model priors similar to those described above. Detailed instructions are included on the first page.


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