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About the model

The Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission wanted to develop projections of how built-up land and population levels will likely change locally across the globe. The first objective of this work was to provide the UN Population Division with projections of the population by Degree of Urbanisation level up to 2100. The UN Population Division would like to include these global projections in their World Urbanization Prospects publication foreseen for early 2025. The second objective is to develop a flexible and efficient model that can integrate other population projections and the global SSP scenarios. These projections must be done spatially explicitly and on a fine spatial resolution (entailing 1 km2 grid cells). Given the complexity of the task, this work required a dedicated GIS-based platform that allows trained users to create, recreate, and adapt projections in a computationally efficient way. In 2024, the JRC and Object Vision developed this model in the GeoDMS software.

How to use the model

For detailed instructions on how to obtain the model, set it up, and run it. See our tutorial page.