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Country / Territory,Political Status,Land area (km2),Population,Area per person (m2),Population density (Person/km2),GDP ($Million),GDP Per Capita ($),Geographic Type,No. islands,No. inhab. island | ||
American Samoa,US territory,240,"45,443","5,176",193,658,14480,High islands + atolls,7,6 | ||
Cook Islands,Independent. NZ-affiliated,180,"17,459","10,310",97,300,17183,High islands + atolls,15,13 | ||
Federated States of Micronesia,Independent. US-affiliated,702,"104,468","6,720",149,390,3733,High islands + atolls,607,65 | ||
Fiji,Independent,"18,376","929,276","19,775",51,"12,180",13107,High islands + atolls,330,110 | ||
French Polynesia,French Territory,"3,521","275,918","12,761",78,"5,490",19897,High islands + atolls,118,67 | ||
Guam,US territory,549,"168,801","3,252",307,6,34,High islands,1,1 | ||
Kiribati,Independent,726,"119,000","6,101",164,270,2269,Atolls,33,21 | ||
Marshall Islands,Independent. US-affiliated,720,"58,413","12,326",81,240,4109,Atolls,34,24 | ||
Nauru,Independent,21,"10,670","1,968",508,150,14058,Raised coral island,1,1 | ||
Niue,Independent. NZ-affiliated,258,"1,620","159,259",6,10,6235,Raised coral island,1,1 | ||
Palau,Independent. US-affiliated,475,"17,907","26,526",38,320,17870,High islands + atolls,1,1 | ||
PNG,Independent,"461,690","8,935,000","51,672",19,"38,170",4272,High islands + atolls,600,No data | ||
Solomon Islands,Independent,"29,785","652,857","45,623",22,"1,780",2726,High islands + atolls,992,347 | ||
Tokelau,NZ territory,12,"1,500","8,000",125,8,5333,Atolls,3,3 | ||
Tonga,Independent,696,"100,651","6,915",145,670,6657,High islands,169,36 | ||
Tuvalu,Independent,26,"11,646","2,233",448,50,4293,Atolls,9,8 | ||
Vanuatu,Independent,"12,189","307,815","39,598",25,930,3021,High islands + atolls,83,65 | ||
Samoa,Independent,"2,934","202,506","14,488",69,"1,280",6321,High islands,12,4 | ||
New Caledonia,French Territory,"18,275","297,160","61,499",16,11,37,No Data,55,No data | ||
Country / Territory,Political Status,Land area (km2),Population,Area per person (m2),Population density (Person/km2),GDP Per Capita ($),Geographic Type,No. islands,No. inhab. island | ||
American Samoa,US territory,240,"45,443","5,176",193,14480,High islands + atolls,7,6 | ||
Cook Islands,Independent. NZ-affiliated,180,"17,459","10,310",97,16700,High islands + atolls,15,13 | ||
Micronesia,Independent. US-affiliated,702,"104,468","6,720",149,3500,High islands + atolls,607,65 | ||
Fiji,Independent,"18,376","929,276","19,775",51,11000,High islands + atolls,330,110 | ||
French Polynesia,French Territory,"3,521","275,918","12,761",78,17000,High islands + atolls,118,67 | ||
Guam,US territory,549,"168,801","3,252",307,35600,High islands,1,1 | ||
Kiribati,Independent,726,"119,000","6,101",164,2300,Atolls,33,21 | ||
Marshall Islands,Independent. US-affiliated,720,"58,413","12,326",81,4000,Atolls,34,24 | ||
Nauru,Independent,21,"10,670","1,968",508,13500,Raised coral island,1,1 | ||
Niue,Independent. NZ-affiliated,258,"1,620","159,259",6,5800,Raised coral island,1,1 | ||
Palau,Independent. US-affiliated,475,"17,907","26,526",38,17600,High islands + atolls,1,1 | ||
PNG,Independent,"461,690","8,935,000","51,672",19,4200,High islands + atolls,600,No data | ||
Solomon Islands,Independent,"29,785","652,857","45,623",22,2500,High islands + atolls,992,347 | ||
Tokelau,NZ territory,12,"1,500","8,000",125,60004,Atolls,3,3 | ||
Tonga,Independent,696,"100,651","6,915",145,6400,High islands,169,36 | ||
Tuvalu,Independent,26,"11,646","2,233",448,4400,Atolls,9,8 | ||
Vanuatu,Independent,"12,189","307,815","39,598",25,2800,High islands + atolls,83,65 | ||
Samoa,Independent,"2,934","202,506","14,488",69,6300,High islands,12,4 | ||
New Caledonia,French Territory,"18,275","297,160","61,499",16,31100,No Data,55,No data |
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import pandas as pd | ||
import functions | ||
def calculate_community_battery_size(country,residential_battery_capacity,demand_scenario="Decarbonization", total_storage_days = 5): | ||
demand = functions.fetch_single_country_demand(Country=country,Year=2019) | ||
if demand_scenario == "World average": | ||
demand = demand * 0.8 | ||
daily_average_demand = demand/365 | ||
total_storage_capacity_GWh = total_storage_days * daily_average_demand | ||
community_storage_capacity = total_storage_capacity_GWh - residential_battery_capacity | ||
from EnergyFlows import Country_List | ||
def calculate_community_battery_size(demand,residential_battery_capacity,technical_pot,total_storage_days = 5): | ||
average_daily_demand = demand/365 #GWH/day | ||
if demand <= technical_pot: | ||
total_storage_capacity_GWh = average_daily_demand * total_storage_days | ||
elif demand > technical_pot: | ||
total_storage_capacity_GWh = (average_daily_demand * total_storage_days)*(technical_pot/demand) | ||
community_battery = max(total_storage_capacity_GWh - residential_battery_capacity,0) | ||
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return community_storage_capacity | ||
return community_battery | ||
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def calculate_demand(country,demand_scenario): | ||
if demand_scenario == "Decarbonization": | ||
demand = functions.fetch_single_country_demand(Country=country,Year=2019)[0] | ||
elif demand_scenario == "Electrification": | ||
demand = functions.fetch_single_country_demand(Country=country, Year=2019)[1] | ||
elif demand_scenario == "Net_zero": | ||
demand = functions.fetch_single_country_demand(Country=country, Year=2019)[2] | ||
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return demand | ||
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def run_decarbonization_scenario(): | ||
pass | ||
def calculate_renewable_technical_potential(country,available_land,avaialble_coastline,avaialble_buildings=0.3,PV_size=2.5): | ||
technical_potential_df = functions.calculate_PV_Wind_potential(available_land=available_land, available_coastline=avaialble_coastline) | ||
PV_technical_potential = technical_potential_df[technical_potential_df['Country'] == country]['PV_technical_GWh'].values[0] | ||
Wind_technical_potential = technical_potential_df[technical_potential_df['Country'] == country]['Wind_technical_GWh'].values[0] | ||
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calculate_community_battery_size("PNG",5) | ||
rooftop_df = functions.calculate_rooftop_PV_potential(available_buildings=avaialble_buildings,PV_size=PV_size) | ||
rooftop_potential = rooftop_df[rooftop_df['Country'] == country]['Generation_GWh'].values[0] | ||
# print(PV_technical_potential,Wind_technical_potential,rooftop_potential) | ||
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total = PV_technical_potential + Wind_technical_potential + rooftop_potential | ||
return {"PV_tech_GWh":PV_technical_potential,"Wind_tech_GWh":Wind_technical_potential,"Rooftop_GWh":rooftop_potential,"Total":total} | ||
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def calculate_capacity_of_each_technology(country,dic_potential,demand): | ||
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rooftop_PV_GWh = min(dic_potential["Rooftop_GWh"],demand) | ||
rooftop_PV_GWh = max(0,rooftop_PV_GWh) | ||
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large_PV_GWh = min(dic_potential["PV_tech_GWh"],demand-rooftop_PV_GWh) | ||
large_PV_GWh = max(0,large_PV_GWh) | ||
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wind_GWh = min(dic_potential["Wind_tech_GWh"],demand-rooftop_PV_GWh-large_PV_GWh) | ||
wind_GWh = max(0,wind_GWh) | ||
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df_potentials = pd.read_excel('Data/Potentials.xlsx') | ||
PV_pot = df_potentials.iloc[0, 2:] #GWh/MW/year | ||
Wind_pot =df_potentials.iloc[2, 2:] #GWh/MW/year | ||
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PV_pot = PV_pot[country] | ||
Wind_pot = Wind_pot[country] | ||
# print(PV_pot[country]) | ||
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rooftop_MW = rooftop_PV_GWh/PV_pot #MW | ||
large_PV_MW = large_PV_GWh/PV_pot #MW | ||
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wind_MW = wind_GWh/Wind_pot | ||
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total_GWh = wind_GWh + large_PV_GWh + rooftop_PV_GWh | ||
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community_battery = calculate_community_battery_size(demand=demand,residential_battery_capacity = rooftop_MW*2/1000,technical_pot=total_GWh,total_storage_days=5 ) | ||
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return {"Rooftop_MW":rooftop_MW,"Large_PV_MW":large_PV_MW,"Wind_MW":wind_MW,"residential_battery_MWh":rooftop_MW*2,"total_GWh":total_GWh,"Community_battery_GWh":community_battery} | ||
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def create_yearly_df(country,decarb_year,capacity_dic,cost_dic,diesel_price,inflation_rate, discount_rate): | ||
from datetime import datetime | ||
now = datetime.now().year | ||
number_of_years = decarb_year - 2022 | ||
year_list = [] | ||
installation_df = pd.DataFrame() | ||
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for i in range(0, 31): | ||
now += 1 | ||
year_list.append(now) | ||
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# community_battery = calculate_community_battery_size(demand=) | ||
installation_df['Year'] = year_list | ||
installation_df['rooftop_MW'] = capacity_dic["Rooftop_MW"]/number_of_years | ||
installation_df['resid_battery_MW'] = installation_df['rooftop_MW'] * 2 | ||
installation_df['PV_MW'] = capacity_dic["Large_PV_MW"]/number_of_years | ||
installation_df['wind_MW'] = capacity_dic["Wind_MW"]/number_of_years | ||
installation_df["Community_battery_GWh"] = capacity_dic['Community_battery_GWh']/number_of_years | ||
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installation_df.loc[number_of_years:,'rooftop_MW'] = 0 | ||
installation_df.loc[number_of_years:,'resid_battery_MW'] = 0 | ||
installation_df.loc[number_of_years:,'PV_MW'] = 0 | ||
installation_df.loc[number_of_years:,'wind_MW'] = 0 | ||
installation_df.loc[number_of_years:,"Community_battery_GWh"] = 0 | ||
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# costs are $/W - 1000000/MW | ||
# The output is #$ | ||
installation_df['installation_Cost'] = (installation_df['rooftop_MW'] * cost_dic['rooftop'] + | ||
installation_df['resid_battery_MW'] *cost_dic['resid_battery'] + | ||
installation_df['Community_battery_GWh']*1000 *cost_dic['resid_battery'] + | ||
installation_df['PV_MW'] * cost_dic['large_PV'] +\ | ||
installation_df['wind_MW'] * cost_dic['wind'])*1000000#Convert to $/MW #in the cost dic, are costs are $/W | ||
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installation_df['avoided_demand_GWh'] = capacity_dic["total_GWh"]/number_of_years | ||
installation_df.loc[number_of_years:,'avoided_demand_GWh'] = 0 | ||
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diesel_efficiency = 0.4 | ||
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diesel_generatio = 2.5 #kWh/Liter | ||
installation_df["avoided_diesel_liter"] = installation_df["avoided_demand_GWh"] / (2.5/1000000) | ||
installation_df["cumulative_avoided_diesel_liter"] = installation_df["avoided_diesel_liter"].cumsum(axis=0) | ||
installation_df["avoided_diesel_savings"] = installation_df["cumulative_avoided_diesel_liter"] * diesel_price | ||
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if country =="New Caledonia": | ||
#coal price is 400 USD/Tonne | ||
# 47% demand is met by diesel, and 53% by coal | ||
# 0.00814 GWh energy in one tonne coal. | ||
installation_df["avoided_diesel_liter"] = installation_df["avoided_diesel_liter"]*0.47 | ||
installation_df["avoided_coal_tonne"] = (installation_df["avoided_demand_GWh"]*0.53)/(0.00814 * 0.35) | ||
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installation_df["cumulative_avoided_diesel_liter"] = installation_df["avoided_diesel_liter"].cumsum(axis=0) | ||
installation_df["cumulative_avoided_coal_tonne"] = installation_df["avoided_coal_tonne"].cumsum(axis=0) | ||
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installation_df["avoided_diesel_savings"] = installation_df["cumulative_avoided_diesel_liter"] * diesel_price | ||
installation_df["avoided_coal_savings"] = installation_df["cumulative_avoided_coal_tonne"] * 400 | ||
installation_df["avoided_diesel_savings"] = installation_df["avoided_diesel_savings"] + installation_df["avoided_coal_savings"] | ||
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installation_df['Cumulative_avoided_cost'] = installation_df['avoided_diesel_savings'].cumsum(axis=0) | ||
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inflation_rate = inflation_rate/100 | ||
discount_rate = discount_rate/100 | ||
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for i, row in installation_df.iterrows(): | ||
installation_df.at[i, 'Cumulative_avoided_cost'] = installation_df.at[i, 'Cumulative_avoided_cost'] * ((1+inflation_rate)/(1+discount_rate))**i | ||
installation_df.at[i, 'installation_Cost'] = installation_df.at[i, 'installation_Cost'] * ((1+inflation_rate)/(1+discount_rate))**i | ||
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installation_df['Annual_Net_saving'] = installation_df['Cumulative_avoided_cost'] - installation_df['installation_Cost'] # $MM | ||
installation_df["Cumulative_net_saving"] = installation_df['Annual_Net_saving'].cumsum(axis=0) | ||
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return installation_df | ||
# demand_df['Net_saving_discounted'] = 0 | ||
# demand_df['Emission_red_saving_discounted'] = 0 | ||
# inflation_rate = inflation_rate/100 | ||
# discount_rate = discount_rate/100 | ||
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def calculate_diesel_price(country): | ||
diesel_df = pd.read_csv("Data/Diesel.csv") | ||
if country in diesel_df["Country"].to_list(): | ||
print("Hi") | ||
diesel_price = diesel_df[diesel_df['Country'] == country]['Tax included'].values[0] | ||
else: | ||
diesel_price = diesel_df['Tax included'].mean() | ||
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diesel_price = diesel_price-20 #20c less than retails price | ||
diesel_price = diesel_price/100 # convert to $ from cents | ||
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print(diesel_price) | ||
return diesel_price | ||
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def run_decarbonization_scenario(cost_scenario,country_list,demand_scenario="Decarbonization",available_land=0.02, avaialble_coastline=0.1,avaialble_buildings=0.3,PV_size=2.5,decarb_year=2030): | ||
# demand_scenario = ["Decarbonization","Electrification","Net_zero"] | ||
costs= {"optimistic":{"rooftop":3,"resid_battery":4,"large_PV":3,"wind":3},"pessimistic":{"rooftop":4.5,"resid_battery":4,"large_PV":4.5,"wind":6}} | ||
all_countries_result = pd.DataFrame() | ||
all_countries_result['Technology'] =["Rooftop_MW", "Large_PV_MW","Wind_MW","Residential_battery_MWh","Community_battery_GWh","total_GWh",'Payback period (years)'] | ||
# : rooftop_MW, : large_PV_MW, : wind_MW, : total_GWh, : community_battery | ||
# cost_dic = {"rooftop":4.5,"resid_battery":4,"large_PV":4.5,"wind":6}#Pessimistic | ||
# cost_dic = {"rooftop":3,"resid_battery":4,"large_PV":3,"wind":3}#Optimistic | ||
cost_dic = costs[cost_scenario] | ||
for country in country_list: | ||
diesel_price = calculate_diesel_price(country) | ||
pot = calculate_renewable_technical_potential(country, available_land=available_land, avaialble_coastline=avaialble_coastline,avaialble_buildings=avaialble_buildings,PV_size=PV_size) | ||
demand = calculate_demand(country, demand_scenario) | ||
capacity_dic = calculate_capacity_of_each_technology(country, pot, demand) | ||
final_df = create_yearly_df(country=country,decarb_year=decarb_year,capacity_dic=capacity_dic,cost_dic=cost_dic,diesel_price=diesel_price,inflation_rate=3,discount_rate=7) | ||
final_df.to_csv("Results/{}/Simulation_result_{}.csv".format(demand_scenario,country)) | ||
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payback_period = final_df[final_df.Cumulative_net_saving < 0].index.values.max() | ||
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all_countries_result[country] = [capacity_dic["Rooftop_MW"], | ||
capacity_dic["Large_PV_MW"], | ||
capacity_dic["Wind_MW"], | ||
capacity_dic["residential_battery_MWh"], | ||
capacity_dic["Community_battery_GWh"], | ||
capacity_dic["total_GWh"], | ||
payback_period | ||
] | ||
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all_countries_result.reset_index(drop=True,inplace=True) | ||
# all_countries_result = all_countries_result.pivot(columns="Technology",index=all_countries_result.columns)[all_countries_result.columns] | ||
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all_countries_result.to_excel("Results/{}/{}_simulation_result_{}_wind_{}_PV_{}.xlsx".format(demand_scenario,cost_scenario,demand_scenario,avaialble_coastline,available_land)) | ||
# print(all_countries_result.head()) | ||
return final_df | ||
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for cost_scenario in ["optimistic",'pessimistic']: | ||
for demand_sceanrio in ['Decarbonization',"Electrification","Net_zero"]: | ||
run_decarbonization_scenario(cost_scenario=cost_scenario,country_list=Country_List, | ||
demand_scenario=demand_sceanrio,available_land=0.1, | ||
avaialble_coastline=0,avaialble_buildings=0.3, | ||
PV_size=2.5,decarb_year=2030) | ||
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#check community battery |
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