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filipvanlaenen committed Sep 21, 2024
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| Group | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|:-----:|:-----------:|:------:|:-----------------------:|:-----------------------:|:-----------------------:|:-----------------------:|
| <a href="#european-people’s-party">European People’s Party</a> | 188 | 184 | 179–188 |178–190 | 177–191 | 175–193 |
| <a href="#progressive-alliance-of-socialists-and-democrats">Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats</a> | 136 | 138 | 134–142 |133–144 | 132–145 | 130–147 |
| <a href="#european-people’s-party">European People’s Party</a> | 188 | 183 | 179–188 |177–189 | 176–191 | 174–193 |
| <a href="#progressive-alliance-of-socialists-and-democrats">Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats</a> | 136 | 139 | 134–143 |133–144 | 132–145 | 130–147 |
| <a href="#patriots-for-europe">Patriots for Europe</a> | 84 | 91 | 88–94 |87–95 | 87–95 | 85–97 |
| <a href="#european-conservatives-and-reformists">European Conservatives and Reformists</a> | 78 | 80 | 76–83 |75–84 | 75–84 | 73–86 |
| <a href="#renew-europe">Renew Europe</a> | 77 | 70 | 67–74 |67–75 | 66–76 | 65–78 |
| <a href="#european-conservatives-and-reformists">European Conservatives and Reformists</a> | 78 | 80 | 76–83 |75–84 | 75–85 | 73–86 |
| <a href="#renew-europe">Renew Europe</a> | 77 | 70 | 67–73 |67–75 | 66–75 | 65–77 |
| <a href="#european-united-left–nordic-green-left">European United Left–Nordic Green Left</a> | 46 | 44 | 41–47 |40–48 | 39–48 | 38–50 |
| <a href="#greens–european-free-alliance">Greens–European Free Alliance</a> | 53 | 42 | 39–46 |38–47 | 37–48 | 36–50 |
| <a href="#non-inscrits">Non-Inscrits</a> | 32 | 32 | 29–34 |29–35 | 28–36 | 27–37 |
| <a href="#europe-of-sovereign-nations">Europe of Sovereign Nations</a> | 25 | 27 | 24–30 |24–31 | 23–31 | 22–33 |
| <a href="#greens–european-free-alliance">Greens–European Free Alliance</a> | 53 | 42 | 39–46 |38–47 | 37–48 | 36–49 |
| <a href="#non-inscrits">Non-Inscrits</a> | 32 | 32 | 30–35 |29–36 | 28–36 | 27–37 |
| <a href="#europe-of-sovereign-nations">Europe of Sovereign Nations</a> | 25 | 27 | 25–29 |24–30 | 23–31 | 22–32 |
| <a href="#parties-currently-not-represented-in-the-ep">Parties currently not represented in the EP</a> | 1 | 3 | 2–4 |2–4 | 2–4 | 1–5 |

### European People’s Party
Expand All @@ -30,31 +30,30 @@
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|:---------------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-------------:|
| 172 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 175 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 176 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 177 | 2% | 98% | |
| 178 | 3% | 96% | |
| 179 | 5% | 93% | |
| 180 | 6% | 89% | |
| 181 | 8% | 82% | |
| 182 | 10% | 74% | |
| 183 | 11% | 64% | |
| 184 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 185 | 10% | 42% | |
| 186 | 9% | 32% | |
| 187 | 7% | 23% | |
| 188 | 6% | 15% | Last Result |
| 189 | 4% | 10% | |
| 190 | 3% | 6% | |
| 191 | 2% | 3% | |
| 192 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 193 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 175 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 176 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 177 | 2% | 97% | |
| 178 | 4% | 95% | |
| 179 | 5% | 91% | |
| 180 | 7% | 86% | |
| 181 | 9% | 79% | |
| 182 | 10% | 70% | |
| 183 | 11% | 60% | Median |
| 184 | 11% | 49% | |
| 185 | 10% | 38% | |
| 186 | 8% | 29% | |
| 187 | 7% | 20% | |
| 188 | 5% | 13% | Last Result |
| 189 | 3% | 8% | |
| 190 | 2% | 5% | |
| 191 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 192 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 193 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% | |

### Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats

Expand All @@ -64,26 +63,26 @@

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|:---------------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-------------:|
| 128 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 131 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 132 | 2% | 98% | |
| 133 | 3% | 96% | |
| 134 | 5% | 93% | |
| 135 | 8% | 88% | |
| 136 | 10% | 80% | Last Result |
| 137 | 12% | 70% | |
| 138 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 139 | 12% | 46% | |
| 140 | 10% | 34% | |
| 141 | 8% | 24% | |
| 142 | 6% | 16% | |
| 143 | 4% | 9% | |
| 144 | 3% | 5% | |
| 145 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 146 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 132 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 133 | 3% | 97% | |
| 134 | 5% | 94% | |
| 135 | 7% | 89% | |
| 136 | 9% | 83% | Last Result |
| 137 | 11% | 73% | |
| 138 | 12% | 62% | |
| 139 | 12% | 50% | Median |
| 140 | 11% | 38% | |
| 141 | 9% | 27% | |
| 142 | 7% | 18% | |
| 143 | 5% | 11% | |
| 144 | 3% | 7% | |
| 145 | 2% | 4% | |
| 146 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 147 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
Expand All @@ -98,19 +97,19 @@
|:---------------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-------------:|
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 85 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 86 | 1.5% | 99.3% | |
| 87 | 4% | 98% | |
| 88 | 7% | 94% | |
| 89 | 12% | 87% | |
| 86 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 87 | 3% | 98% | |
| 88 | 7% | 95% | |
| 89 | 11% | 88% | |
| 90 | 16% | 76% | |
| 91 | 18% | 60% | Median |
| 92 | 17% | 42% | |
| 93 | 12% | 26% | |
| 94 | 8% | 13% | |
| 91 | 18% | 61% | Median |
| 92 | 17% | 43% | |
| 93 | 13% | 26% | |
| 94 | 8% | 14% | |
| 95 | 4% | 6% | |
| 96 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 2% | 2% | |
| 97 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |

### European Conservatives and Reformists
Expand All @@ -121,24 +120,24 @@

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|:---------------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-------------:|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 74 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 75 | 3% | 98% | |
| 76 | 6% | 95% | |
| 77 | 9% | 89% | |
| 78 | 13% | 80% | Last Result |
| 79 | 15% | 68% | |
| 80 | 16% | 53% | Median |
| 81 | 14% | 37% | |
| 82 | 11% | 23% | |
| 83 | 7% | 12% | |
| 84 | 3% | 6% | |
| 85 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 12% | 80% | Last Result |
| 79 | 14% | 68% | |
| 80 | 15% | 54% | Median |
| 81 | 14% | 39% | |
| 82 | 11% | 25% | |
| 83 | 7% | 14% | |
| 84 | 4% | 7% | |
| 85 | 2% | 3% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |

### Renew Europe
Expand All @@ -151,22 +150,22 @@
|:---------------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-------------:|
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 65 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 67 | 6% | 96% | |
| 68 | 10% | 90% | |
| 69 | 15% | 79% | |
| 70 | 17% | 65% | Median |
| 71 | 16% | 48% | |
| 72 | 13% | 32% | |
| 73 | 9% | 20% | |
| 74 | 5% | 11% | |
| 75 | 3% | 6% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.8% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 78 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 68 | 11% | 89% | |
| 69 | 15% | 78% | |
| 70 | 17% | 63% | Median |
| 71 | 16% | 46% | |
| 72 | 12% | 30% | |
| 73 | 8% | 18% | |
| 74 | 5% | 10% | |
| 75 | 3% | 5% | |
| 76 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.7% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 78 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |

### Greens–European Free Alliance
Expand All @@ -178,23 +177,23 @@
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|:---------------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-------------:|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 38 | 5% | 97% | |
| 39 | 8% | 92% | |
| 40 | 11% | 84% | |
| 41 | 12% | 73% | |
| 42 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 43 | 12% | 48% | |
| 44 | 11% | 37% | |
| 45 | 10% | 25% | |
| 46 | 7% | 16% | |
| 47 | 5% | 9% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 38 | 6% | 96% | |
| 39 | 9% | 90% | |
| 40 | 11% | 81% | |
| 41 | 13% | 70% | |
| 42 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 43 | 12% | 45% | |
| 44 | 10% | 33% | |
| 45 | 9% | 23% | |
| 46 | 6% | 14% | |
| 47 | 4% | 8% | |
| 48 | 2% | 4% | |
| 49 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |

Expand All @@ -206,20 +205,19 @@

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|:---------------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-------------:|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 39 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 40 | 6% | 96% | |
| 41 | 10% | 90% | |
| 42 | 14% | 81% | |
| 43 | 16% | 67% | |
| 44 | 16% | 51% | Median |
| 45 | 14% | 35% | |
| 46 | 10% | 21% | Last Result |
| 47 | 6% | 12% | |
| 48 | 3% | 5% | |
| 49 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 40 | 5% | 97% | |
| 41 | 9% | 92% | |
| 42 | 13% | 83% | |
| 43 | 16% | 70% | |
| 44 | 17% | 54% | Median |
| 45 | 14% | 37% | |
| 46 | 11% | 23% | Last Result |
| 47 | 7% | 12% | |
| 48 | 3% | 6% | |
| 49 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
Expand All @@ -234,20 +232,19 @@
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|:---------------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-------------:|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 24 | 8% | 96% | |
| 25 | 15% | 88% | Last Result |
| 26 | 19% | 73% | |
| 27 | 19% | 54% | Median |
| 28 | 14% | 35% | |
| 29 | 9% | 21% | |
| 30 | 6% | 12% | |
| 31 | 3% | 6% | |
| 32 | 2% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 24 | 7% | 97% | |
| 25 | 13% | 90% | Last Result |
| 26 | 19% | 77% | |
| 27 | 21% | 59% | Median |
| 28 | 18% | 38% | |
| 29 | 12% | 20% | |
| 30 | 6% | 8% | |
| 31 | 2% | 3% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |

### Non-Inscrits

Expand All @@ -257,18 +254,19 @@

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|:---------------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-------------:|
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 29 | 7% | 96% | |
| 30 | 13% | 89% | |
| 31 | 19% | 76% | |
| 32 | 20% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 33 | 17% | 37% | |
| 34 | 11% | 20% | |
| 35 | 6% | 9% | |
| 36 | 2% | 4% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 29 | 6% | 97% | |
| 30 | 11% | 91% | |
| 31 | 17% | 79% | |
| 32 | 19% | 63% | Last Result, Median |
| 33 | 18% | 44% | |
| 34 | 13% | 26% | |
| 35 | 8% | 13% | |
| 36 | 3% | 5% | |
| 37 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
Expand All @@ -281,10 +279,10 @@

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|:---------------:|:-----------:|:-----------:|:-------------:|
| 1 | 0.9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 30% | 99.1% | |
| 3 | 47% | 69% | Median |
| 4 | 20% | 22% | |
| 1 | 1.0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 31% | 99.0% | |
| 3 | 47% | 68% | Median |
| 4 | 20% | 21% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |

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