Fix manifold bet profit calculation

prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/data_models.py

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@
 from pydantic import BaseModel
 from web3 import Web3
 
+from prediction_market_agent_tooling.benchmark.utils import should_not_happen
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.gtypes import (
     USD,
     ChecksumAddress,
@@ -23,6 +24,12 @@ class Currency(str, Enum):
     Mana = "Mana"
 
 
+class Resolution(str, Enum):
+    YES = "YES"
+    NO = "NO"
+    CANCEL = "CANCEL"
+
+
 class BetAmount(BaseModel):
     amount: Decimal
     currency: Currency
@@ -156,7 +163,7 @@ class ManifoldMarket(BaseModel):
     isResolved: bool
     resolution: t.Optional[str] = None
     resolutionTime: t.Optional[datetime] = None
-    lastBetTime: datetime
+    lastBetTime: t.Optional[datetime] = None
     lastCommentTime: t.Optional[datetime] = None
     lastUpdatedTime: datetime
     mechanism: str
@@ -184,6 +191,16 @@ def to_agent_market(self) -> "AgentMarket":
             original_market=self,
         )
 
+    def get_resolution_enum(self) -> Resolution:
+        return Resolution(self.resolution)
+
+    def is_resolved_non_cancelled(self) -> bool:
+        return (
+            self.isResolved
+            and self.resolutionTime is not None
+            and self.get_resolution_enum() != Resolution.CANCEL
+        )
+
     def __repr__(self) -> str:
         return f"Manifold's market: {self.question}"
 
@@ -235,6 +252,9 @@ class ManifoldBetFees(BaseModel):
     liquidityFee: Decimal
     creatorFee: Decimal
 
+    def get_total(self) -> Decimal:
+        return Decimal(sum([self.platformFee, self.liquidityFee, self.creatorFee]))
+
 
 class ManifoldBet(BaseModel):
     """
@@ -257,6 +277,27 @@ class ManifoldBet(BaseModel):
     createdTime: datetime
     outcome: str
 
+    def get_resolved_boolean_outcome(self) -> bool:
+        outcome = Resolution(self.outcome)
+        if outcome == Resolution.YES:
+            return True
+        elif outcome == Resolution.NO:
+            return False
+        else:
+            should_not_happen(f"Unexpected bet outcome string, '{outcome.value}'.")
+
+    def get_profit(self, market_outcome: bool) -> ProfitAmount:
+        profit = (
+            self.shares - self.amount
+            if self.get_resolved_boolean_outcome() == market_outcome
+            else -self.amount
+        )
+        profit -= self.fees.get_total()
+        return ProfitAmount(
+            amount=profit,
+            currency=Currency.Mana,
+        )
+
 
 class ManifoldContractMetric(BaseModel):
     """

prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/manifold.py

@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@
     ManifoldContractMetric,
     ManifoldMarket,
     ManifoldUser,
-    ProfitAmount,
+    Resolution,
     ResolvedBet,
 )
 
@@ -113,30 +113,28 @@ def get_resolved_manifold_bets(
     bets = [b for b in bets if b.createdTime >= start_time]
     if end_time:
         bets = [b for b in bets if b.createdTime < end_time]
-    bets = [b for b in bets if get_manifold_market(b.contractId).isResolved]
+    bets = [
+        b for b in bets if get_manifold_market(b.contractId).is_resolved_non_cancelled()
+    ]
     return bets
 
 
 def manifold_to_generic_resolved_bet(bet: ManifoldBet) -> ResolvedBet:
     market = get_manifold_market(bet.contractId)
-    if not market.isResolved:
+    if not market.is_resolved_non_cancelled():
         raise ValueError(f"Market {market.id} is not resolved.")
     if not market.resolutionTime:
         raise ValueError(f"Market {market.id} has no resolution time.")
 
-    # Get the profit for this bet from the corresponding position
-    positions = get_market_positions(market.id, bet.userId)
-    bet_position = next(p for p in positions if p.contractId == bet.contractId)
-    profit = bet_position.profit
-
+    market_outcome = market.get_resolution_enum() == Resolution.YES
     return ResolvedBet(
         amount=BetAmount(amount=bet.amount, currency=Currency.Mana),
-        outcome=bet.outcome == "YES",
+        outcome=bet.get_resolved_boolean_outcome(),
         created_time=bet.createdTime,
         market_question=market.question,
-        market_outcome=market.resolution == "YES",
+        market_outcome=market_outcome,
         resolved_time=market.resolutionTime,
-        profit=ProfitAmount(amount=profit, currency=Currency.Mana),
+        profit=bet.get_profit(market_outcome=market_outcome),
     )