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Two analyses I've read of Dream's recent speedrunning performance have been flawed. I believe I can do better, and so I've done my own analysis. The result is fully Bayesian and can be useful for much more than Minecraft speedrunning.

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hjhornbeck/bayes_speedrun_cheating

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At long last, the report is done! Editing and conversion took longer than I expected, but at this point any remaining errors should be trivial. The full HTML version of it is available here:

https://did-dream-cheat.github.io/bayes_speedrun_cheating/

If you prefer a PDF, I've manually built one over here:

https://github.com/did-dream-cheat/bayes_speedrun_cheating/blob/gh-pages/_build/latex/python.pdf

Any page with Python code can be launched as an interactive notebook, click on the little "rocket" icon at the top of the page and pick your favourite code host. Since any dependencies won't be copied over, I've added extra cells that, when their code is uncommented, should retrieve those dependencies for you.

Actual Code

The main GitHub repository is over here:

https://github.com/hjhornbeck/bayes_speedrun_cheating/

Any proposed changes or forks should be on that specific repository; the "did-dream-cheat" username and sole repository are reserved for mirroring the main repository as HTML and PDF documents.

hjhornbeck

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Two analyses I've read of Dream's recent speedrunning performance have been flawed. I believe I can do better, and so I've done my own analysis. The result is fully Bayesian and can be useful for much more than Minecraft speedrunning.

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