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from ema_workbench import (RealParameter, TimeSeriesOutcome, ema_logging, | ||
perform_experiments, save_results) | ||
import pysd | ||
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model = pysd.read_vensim('/Users/imdij/OneDrive/Bureaublad/THESIS_PYEMA/models/InternshipPilot/SD/Wind_SD.mdl') | ||
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from ema_workbench.connectors.pysd_connector import PysdModel | ||
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ema_logging.log_to_stderr(ema_logging.INFO) | ||
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# Outcomes | ||
outcomes = [ | ||
TimeSeriesOutcome('Net present value vs time') | ||
TimeSeriesOutcome('Cumulative hydrogen production'), | ||
TimeSeriesOutcome('Cumulative power to grid'), | ||
TimeSeriesOutcome('Cumulative direct costs') | ||
] | ||
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# Plain Parametric Uncertainties | ||
uncertainties = [ | ||
RealParameter('Full load hours',5500,5800), | ||
RealParameter('Wake losses',5,9), | ||
RealParameter('Curtailment losses',1,3), | ||
RealParameter('Inter Array transmission losses',0.7,2), | ||
RealParameter('AC collection cable losses',0.7,2), | ||
RealParameter('Offshore installation factor', 1.1, 1.3), | ||
RealParameter('Island converter terminal power losses',2,4), | ||
RealParameter('DC transmission efficiency losses',1.2,3), | ||
RealParameter('Port converter terminal power losses',2,3), | ||
RealParameter('Cold start up efficiency loss',2,4), | ||
RealParameter('Compression efficiency loss',0,1), | ||
RealParameter('Water depth hub', 25, 40), | ||
RealParameter('H2 system energy requirements loss',2,5), | ||
RealParameter('Pipeline efficiency losses', 0, 1), | ||
RealParameter('Stack degradation efficiency loss', 1, 2.5), | ||
RealParameter('Electrolyser efficiency', 63, 68), | ||
RealParameter('Wind hub distance to shore', 130, 150), | ||
RealParameter('CAPEX change wind hub', 0.7, 1), | ||
RealParameter('CAPEX change electrolysis', 0.7, 1.1), | ||
RealParameter('CAPEX change island', 0.7, 1), | ||
RealParameter('CAPEX change transport', 0.7, 1), | ||
RealParameter('CAPEX change port', 0.7, 1), | ||
RealParameter('Electricity price', 55, 60), | ||
RealParameter('Hydrogen price', 1.75, 2.50), | ||
RealParameter('Subsidy price', 1, 2), | ||
RealParameter('Subsidy period', 8, 20), | ||
RealParameter('OPEX wind change', 0.9, 0.91), | ||
RealParameter('OPEX electrolysis change', 0.9, 1), | ||
RealParameter('Inflation rate', 1, 2), | ||
RealParameter('Investment spread', 3, 6), | ||
RealParameter('Debt repayment period', 11,14), | ||
RealParameter('Debt share', 65, 75), | ||
RealParameter('Debt interest', 2, 3), | ||
RealParameter('Equity IRR', 10, 12) | ||
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RealParameter('Drift parameter', 1.099, 1.1), | ||
RealParameter('Volatility parameter', 0.3, 0.4), | ||
RealParameter('Noise seed', 2, 3) | ||
] | ||
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model = PysdModel(mdl_file='/Users/imdij/OneDrive/Bureaublad/THESIS_PYEMA/models/InternshipPilot/SD/Wind_SD.mdl') | ||
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model.uncertainties = uncertainties | ||
model.outcomes = outcomes | ||
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scenarios= 2000 | ||
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results = perform_experiments(model, scenarios) | ||
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save_results(results, './data/12Wind6H2_DoggerBank_AEL_Islandpower_sensitivity4.tar.gz') |