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Expand Up @@ -3052,3 +3052,9 @@ Who Remains Unbanked in the United States and Why?,"Paul Calem, Chris Henderson,
Who Remains Unbanked in the United States and Why?,"Paul Calem, Chris Henderson, Jenna Wang","Biennial FDIC household survey data on bank account ownership and household characteristics, combined with state-level variables, are examined with application of both fixed effects and multilevel modeling. The analysis finds that even as rising incomes drove a decline in the unbanked percentage of the population over this period, income remained the most significant differentiator, with strong associations with race and ethnicity also persisting. Unbanked status became more concentrated among single individuals and disabled individuals and less concentrated among younger households over this period, and less strongly related to unemployment spells. New factors identified by the analysis include lack of digital access and non-citizen immigrant status, both associated with significantly higher likelihood of being unbanked. Identified state-level relationships include an association between financial literacy measures and percent unbanked. Overall, the findings suggest that continuation of recent efforts by policymakers to bridge the digital divide in rural and urban areas and to enhance financial literacy could help expand financial inclusion. Another key takeaway is that unknown structural factors still pose a challenge to explaining who is unbanked, especially regarding gaps by race and ethnicity, underscoring a need to capture more granular data on the unbanked.",https://www.philadelphiafed.org/the-economy/banking-and-financial-markets/who-remains-unbanked-in-the-united-states-and-why,25-02,January 2025,FED-PHILADELPHIA,01/17/2025
The granular origins of inflation," Santiago Alvarez-Blaser, Raphael Auer, Sarah M Lein, Andrei A Levchenko","This paper uses barcode-level price data for 16 advanced and emerging market countries over the period 2005–2022 to investigate the role of individual firms and product categories in aggregate inflation. We decompose inflation into the component due to macroeconomic shocks and the granular residuals capturing the impact of individual firms and product categories, respectively.",https://www.bis.org/publ/work1240.htm,1240,2025-01-16,BIS,01/17/2025
The Global Transmission of Inflation Uncertainty,"Thomas H. Li, Juan M. Londono, and Sai Ma","The COVID-19 pandemic brought unprecedented disruptions to global supply chains, labor markets, and economic activity, leading to significant volatility in inflation rates worldwide. Not only the level of inflation but the uncertainty about the future path of inflation increased considerably since the onset of the pandemic and have remained elevated until very recently, posing challenges for policymakers and businesses alike.",https://www.federalreserve.gov//econres/notes/feds-notes/the-global-transmission-of-inflation-uncertainty-20250116.html,1017016238071723692,"January 16, 2025",FED-BOARD-NOTES,01/17/2025
Developments in Chinese Chipmaking,"Colin Caines, Sharon Jeon, and Cheyenne Quijano","The global semiconductor industry has become a key source of global economic and geopolitical risks. Due to a combination of huge fixed costs, highly specialized human capital, and a high degree of geographic concentration at different stages of production, chipmaking exhibits extremely low substitutability throughout the value chain.",https://www.federalreserve.gov//econres/notes/feds-notes/developments-in-chinese-chipmaking-20250117.html,1017016238071723647,"January 17, 2025",FED-BOARD-NOTES,01/18/2025
The Bank of England’s statutory monetary policy objectives: a historical and legal account,Michael Salib and Mesha Ghazaleh,"The Bank’s monetary policy objectives are among the most significant statutory objectives bestowed by Parliament on any UK public authority. The objectives make the Bank responsible for maintaining price stability and, subject to that, for supporting the government’s economic policy, including its objectives for growth and employment. When granted in 1998, the objectives were a watershed moment in the three centuries‑old history of an institution that had long‑resisted having its role prescribed or, as Bank officials at the time saw it, constrained by, law. Yet the Bank quickly embraced the benefits of having greater clarity in its legal mandate, and the objectives have proved remarkably resilient in directing the Bank’s monetary response over the past 25 years. This paper offers an in‑depth historical and legal account of the Bank’s statutory monetary policy objectives; it explores the relevant statutory provisions in the Bank of England Act 1998 and the debates that surrounded their drafting, as well as their application and interpretation in practice.",https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2025/the-boe-statutory-monetary-policy-objectives-a-historical-and-legal-account,1110,"Fri, 17 Jan 2",BOE,01/18/2025
Concepts and Challenges of Measuring Production of Artificial Intelligence in the U.S. Economy,"Tina Highfill, David B. Wasshausen, Gregory Prunchak","Much of the current literature on the economic impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) focuses on the uses of AI, but little is known about the production of AI and its contribution to economic growth. In this paper, we discuss basic concepts and challenges related to measuring the production of AI within a standard national accounting framework. We first present a variety of examples that illustrate how both the production and use of AI software are currently reflected in macroeconomic statistics like Gross Domestic Product and the Supply and Use Tables. We then discuss a broader approach to measurement using a thematic satellite account framework that highlights production of AI across foundational areas, including manufacturing, software publishing, computer and data services, and research & development. The challenges of identifying and quantifying AI production in the national accounts using existing data sources are discussed and some possible solutions for the future are offered.",https://www.bea.gov//research/papers/2025/concepts-and-challenges-measuring-production-artificial-intelligence-us,WP2025-1,2025-01-17,BEA,01/18/2025
Decoding Equity Market Reactions to Macroeconomic News,Michele Modugno and Dino Palazzo,"The equity market’s reaction to macroeconomic news is consistent with the propagation of news into the real economy. We embody all the macro news in an activity news index and a price news index that together explain 34% of the quarterly stock price returns variation. When those indexes capture a stream of favorable macroeconomic surprises, publicly traded firms experience increases in revenues, profitability, financing, and investment activities. The firm-level results lead up to an expansion of the real side of the whole U.S. economy. Our findings, taken together, show that stock prices’ reactions to macro news have a strong association with firm-level and economy-wide growth.",https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/decoding-equity-market-reactions-to-macroeconomic-news.htm,2025-007,January 2025,FED-BOARD,01/18/2025
The anatomy of a shock to residential real estate: the role of lending,"Sidharth Moktan, Benjamin Guin and Liam Clarke","What is the role of lending in transmitting shocks to residential real estate? We consider this question by examining an adverse and salient shock to a segment of the property market in England and Wales. This shock, arising from a tragic event which resulted in significant loss of life, affected high-rise properties. Using comprehensive administrative data on all residential mortgage and property transactions, combined with property‑level rent data, we study responses in these markets. Consistent with the idea of credit being a ‘financial accelerator’, we document a decline in mortgage originations following the shock, with the sharpest contraction observed among first‑time buyers. We also highlight the role of cash buyers and lender size in dampening the overall impact of the shock. Additionally, the paper provides a conceptual framework that integrates multiple administrative data sets to understand how salient shocks, including those related to climate risks, may affect the property market. It offers valuable insights for financial policymakers on how these shocks propagate through credit and housing markets.",https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2025/the-anatomy-of-a-shock-to-residential-real-estate-the-role-of-lending,1111,"Fri, 17 Jan 2",BOE,01/18/2025
Financial Technology and the 1990s Housing Boom,Stephanie Johnson and Nitzan Tzur-Ilan,"The 1990s rollout of mortgage automated underwriting systems allowed for complex underwriting rules, cut processing time and raised house prices substantially. We show that locations exposed to initial adopters of Freddie Mac’s Loan Prospector system experienced an early housing boom due to a switch to statistically-informed underwriting rules. Loan Prospector adoption increased lending at high loan-to-income ratios by around 18 percent. Applying our estimated response to lenders who adopted later, we find that the rollout of new lending standards with the GSEs’ systems can explain more than half of U.S. house price growth between 1993 and 2002.",https://www.dallasfed.org/-/media/documents/research/papers/2025/wp2506.pdf,2506,November 2024,FED-DALLAS,01/18/2025
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