Financial modelling project analysing the sustainability and growth dynamics of a subscription-based SaaS business.
This project presents a financial model built in Excel to analyse the economics and scalability of a subscription-based SaaS business.
The model evaluates profitability, customer acquisition efficiency and long-term sustainability through structured financial modelling.
It integrates break-even analysis, SaaS unit economics (LTV/CAC), churn sensitivity analysis and scenario-based growth projections to understand how different assumptions affect business performance
The excel files in this project are interconnected. For the best experience, it is recommended to download all the files and keep them in the same folder.
Open the file simultaneously to ensure that all the link and reference between the model function correctly.
The model includes infrastructure scalability costs to simulate real SaaS growth dynamics.
The system assumes that each server can support up to 1000 subscribers. When the number of subscribers exceeds this capacity, an additional server is required.
Each server has a monthly cost of DKK 6,000.
This means:
- 0 – 1000 subscribers → 1 server → DKK 6,000
- 1001 – 2000 subscribers → 2 servers → DKK 12,000
- 2001 – 3000 subscribers → 3 servers → DKK 18,000
The server cost is included in the total monthly operating costs and therefore affects:
- Monthly profit
- Break-even point
- Scenario analysis results
This approach allows the model to reflect infrastructure scaling as the SaaS platform grows.
The following metrics are calculated under the base scenario assumptions. Values may vary across optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.
- Subscription Price: 79 DKK
- Contribution Margin: 59 DKK
- Break-even Subscribers: 966
- Monthly Profit at 1,000 Subscribers: 2,000 DKK
- Customer Lifetime Value (LTV): 1,180 DKK
- Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC): 500 DKK
- LTV/CAC Ratio: 2.36x
- CAC Payback Period: ~8.5 months
- Break-even Churn Rate: ~10%
- Cost structure analysis
- Break-even calculation
- Profitability dashboard
- LTV and CAC modelling
- Churn sensitivity analysis
- Growth and scalability simulation
- Strategic KPI visualisation
- The excel files in this project are interconnected. For the best experience, it is recommended to download all the files and keep them in the same folder
Open the file simultaneously to ensure that all the link and reference between the model function correctly.
- Modify the input variables using the Scenario Selector such as:
- Subscription price
- Customer acquisition cost (CAC)
- Churn rate
- The model automatically updates:
- Monthly profit
- Break-even subscribers
- LTV/CAC ratio
- Payback period
- Use the churn sensitivity chart to understand how retention affects profitability.
The model evaluates three different business scenarios by adjusting key variables such as customer acquisition cost, churn rate and growth assumptions.
Base Scenario Balanced assumptions for pricing, CAC and churn.
Optimistic Scenario Higher customer growth and lower churn, representing strong product adoption.
Pessimistic Scenario Lower growth and higher churn, testing the resilience of the business model.
This scenario analysis helps evaluate how sensitive the business model is to changes in acquisition efficiency and customer retention.
The analysis highlights several key insights about subscription-based SaaS businesses:
- Sustainable cost structure once the break-even threshold is reached
- Strong balance between customer acquisition cost and lifetime value
- Profitability strongly influenced by churn variations
- Scalable infrastructure supported by step-based cost expansion
- Microsoft Excel
- Financial modelling
- Scenario analysis
- Sensitivity testing
- Business analytics logic
Financial Model Download the Financial Model
SaaS Unit Economics & Growth downlaod the SaaS Economics & Growth
This project was developed as a personal analytical exercise to explore how financial modelling can be used to understand the sustainability and growth dynamics of digital subscription businesses.
It reflects a data-driven approach to analysing unit economics and strategic decision-making in SaaS companies.
Lorenzo Fresia
Aspiring Business & Digital Management student interested in SaaS economics, market strategy and data-driven business analysis.