Dengue is an endemic and reemerging tropical disease in Brazil, since the transmission vector resurfaced after being eradicated, spreading throughout the country. In addition, it is considered a neglected disease because it mainly affects poorer populations in precarious conditions. It is a viral infection, whose transmission is made by mosquitoes (vectors) that has its population development strongly influenced by local climatic conditions. Every year, about 100 million people are affected by the disease that is endemic in more than 100 countries.
Although it usually manifests in an asymptomatic or mild manner, it can cause severe cases and even deaths. Although there is already a licensed tetravalent dengue vaccine, called CYD-TDV, vector control operations still consist of the most effective method for containing the disease. In this context, Brazil presents an environment conducive to the proliferation of dengue vectors, given that the country is located in a predominanttropical area and has extensive areas of forest with high rainfall volume as is the case in the Amazon region.
From this perspective, the city of Belém, in the state of Pará, is situated on the banks of the Guajará Bay, at the confluence with the Guamá River. Physiographically, the city has low altitude and latitude, with a hot and humid climate and an annual rainfall of about 3000 mm. Another striking feature are the always high temperatures and high humidity of the air. Thus, Belém presents a favorable climate environment for a considerable increase in dengue cases as can be observed in the Monitoring of cases of urban arboviruses transmitted by Aedes.
This project aims to perform the analysis and forecasting of the monthly series of dengue in the city of Belém in the last 14 years, based on its first 3 lags.