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mahnoorsheikh16 authored Sep 19, 2024
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## Regression Analysis: Estimating Aggregate Import Demand Function

#### Introduction
Economic theory suggests a positive association between the growth of a country’s import volume and its real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) along with relative prices against other countries. This is evident from the likely increase in an economy’s demand for imported goods and services as their disposable income increase. Therefore, as GDP increases, meaning the value of domestic production increases, the expenditure on imports also elevates. Similar effect on the import volume of a country is carried by the increase in relative prices, considering that imported goods become relatively cheaper in comparison to local goods. Increase in either the real GDP or relative prices against any other country drives the overall demand for imports higher. This conventional economic theory is supported by various literatures, however, there is a need to test the economic theory in real-world situations.
To test whether the economic theory for imports, real GDP and relative prices holds in real-life scenario, this study will analyse the extent of association between the variables through a carefully developed econometric model. The analysis will be based on the dynamically varied economies of Pakistan, Brazil and China. The study will include relevance of global economic events i.e. the 2008 global financial crisis, to suspect the comparable impact of global economic turndowns on developing to developed countries. The paper can be used to assess the difference in impact of global events on GDP and import volume, along with lending evidence to the discussed conventional economic theory.
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