Johnson Flu A: hack together a rough P2RA estimate #240
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dp-rice
reviewed
Mar 18, 2024
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@jeffkaufman this seems like you're doing a pretty straightforward adaptation of what you were doing before, right? I don't see any obvious problems
| @@ -140,6 +140,19 @@ def load_weekly_data() -> WeeklyData: | |||
| source="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2021-2022.htm#:~:text=The%20overall%20burden%20of%20influenza%20(flu)%20for%20the%202021%2D2022%20season%20was%20an%20estimated%C2%A09%20million%C2%A0flu%20illnesses", | |||
| ) | |||
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| infections_2023_2024 = IncidenceAbsolute( | |||
| annual_infections=41_500_000, | |||
| confidence_interval=(29_000_000, 54_000_000), | |||
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This is a technical quibble, but I can't tell from glancing at the website whether their estimated range is technically a confidence interval.
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You're right, it may not be.
I've used the midpoint of the two numbers from the website; the range isn't currently used for anything.
That's right, though there is a bit of messiness about the flu estimate being from only a partial season. |
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This should not actually be merged, but it would be helpful for you to look at it to check the calculation is correct. If we do like this then later we can figure out how to get things in here that depend on NAO-internal sequencing results.
Mean RA_i(1%) is 1.7e-8.