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Support for anytime assist
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@ekoutanov
ekoutanov committed Dec 14, 2023
1 parent f301fa7 commit 2db192d
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Showing 20 changed files with 1,119 additions and 299 deletions.
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion Cargo.toml
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ exclude = ["/images", "/bin", "/.idea", "/.github", "/coverage", "/doc", "/examp
anyhow = "1.0.75"
chrono = "0.4.31"
clap = { version = "4.4.6", features = ["derive"] }
racing_scraper = "0.0.15"
racing_scraper = "0.0.18"
serde_json = "1.0.107"
stanza = "0.3.0"
tinyrand = "0.5.0"
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion brumby-soccer/benches/cri_interval.rs
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Expand Up @@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ fn criterion_benchmark(c: &mut Criterion) {
intervals,
h1_probs: ScoringProbs { home_prob: 0.25, away_prob: 0.25, common_prob: 0.25 },
h2_probs: ScoringProbs { home_prob: 0.25, away_prob: 0.25, common_prob: 0.25 },
players: vec![],
player_probs: vec![],
prune_thresholds: PruneThresholds {
max_total_goals,
min_prob: 1e-6,
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4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions brumby-soccer/benches/cri_isolate.rs
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@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
use brumby_soccer::domain::{OfferType, OutcomeType, Player, Side};
use criterion::{criterion_group, criterion_main, Criterion};

use brumby_soccer::interval::{explore, Exploration, IntervalConfig, ScoringProbs, PruneThresholds};
use brumby_soccer::interval::{explore, Exploration, IntervalConfig, ScoringProbs, PruneThresholds, PlayerProbs};
use brumby_soccer::interval::query::isolate;

fn criterion_benchmark(c: &mut Criterion) {
Expand All @@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ fn criterion_benchmark(c: &mut Criterion) {
intervals,
h1_probs: ScoringProbs { home_prob: 0.25, away_prob: 0.25, common_prob: 0.25 },
h2_probs: ScoringProbs { home_prob: 0.25, away_prob: 0.25, common_prob: 0.25 },
players: vec![(player, 0.25)],
player_probs: vec![(player, PlayerProbs { goal: Some(0.25), assist: None })],
prune_thresholds: PruneThresholds {
max_total_goals,
min_prob: 1e-6,
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141 changes: 111 additions & 30 deletions brumby-soccer/src/bin/soc_prices.rs
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ use std::path::PathBuf;

use anyhow::bail;
use clap::Parser;
use racing_scraper::sports::PROVIDER;
use racing_scraper::sports::Provider;
use stanza::renderer::console::Console;
use stanza::renderer::Renderer;
use tracing::{debug, info};
Expand All @@ -15,19 +15,17 @@ use brumby::hash_lookup::HashLookup;
use brumby::market::{Market, Overround, OverroundMethod, PriceBounds};
use brumby::probs::SliceExt;
use brumby_soccer::{fit, print};
use brumby_soccer::data::{ContestSummary, DataProvider, download_by_id};
use brumby_soccer::data::{ContestSummary, DataProvider, download_by_id, SoccerFeedId};
use brumby_soccer::domain::{
FittingErrors, Offer, OfferType, OutcomeType, Over, Period, Score,
};
use brumby_soccer::fit::ErrorType;
use brumby_soccer::interval::{
Expansions, Exploration, explore, IntervalConfig, PruneThresholds, ScoringProbs,
};
use brumby_soccer::interval::{Expansions, Exploration, explore, IntervalConfig, PlayerProbs, PruneThresholds, ScoringProbs};
use brumby_soccer::interval::query::isolate;

const OVERROUND_METHOD: OverroundMethod = OverroundMethod::OddsRatio;
const SINGLE_PRICE_BOUNDS: PriceBounds = 1.01..=301.0;
const FIRST_GOALSCORER_BOOKSUM: f64 = 1.0;
const FIRST_GOALSCORER_BOOKSUM: f64 = 1.9;
const INTERVALS: usize = 18;
// const MAX_TOTAL_GOALS_HALF: u16 = 4;
const MAX_TOTAL_GOALS_FULL: u16 = 8;
Expand All @@ -42,12 +40,16 @@ struct Args {

/// download contest data by ID
#[clap(short = 'd', long)]
download: Option<String>,
// download: Option<SoccerFeedId>,
// download: Option<String>,
download: Option<SoccerFeedId>,

/// print player markets
/// print player goal markets
#[clap(long = "player-goals")]
player_goals: bool,

/// print player assists markets
#[clap(long = "player-assists")]
player_assists: bool,
}
impl Args {
fn validate(&self) -> anyhow::Result<()> {
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -92,6 +94,7 @@ async fn main() -> Result<(), Box<dyn Error>> {
contest.offerings[&OfferType::TotalGoals(Period::SecondHalf, Over(2))].clone();
let first_gs = contest.offerings[&OfferType::FirstGoalscorer].clone();
let anytime_gs = contest.offerings[&OfferType::AnytimeGoalscorer].clone();
let anytime_assist = contest.offerings[&OfferType::AnytimeAssist].clone();

let ft_h2h = fit_offer(OfferType::HeadToHead(Period::FullTime), &ft_h2h_prices, 1.0);
let ft_goals_ou = fit_offer(
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -446,16 +449,17 @@ async fn main() -> Result<(), Box<dyn Error>> {
// h2_probs: ModelParams { home_prob: ft_search_outcome.optimal_values[0], away_prob: ft_search_outcome.optimal_values[1], common_prob: ft_search_outcome.optimal_values[2] },
h1_probs: ScoringProbs::from(adj_optimal_h1.as_slice()),
h2_probs: ScoringProbs::from(adj_optimal_h2.as_slice()),
players: vec![(player.clone(), *prob)],
player_probs: vec![(player.clone(), PlayerProbs { goal: Some(*prob), assist: None })],
prune_thresholds: PruneThresholds {
max_total_goals: MAX_TOTAL_GOALS_FULL,
min_prob: GOALSCORER_MIN_PROB,
},
expansions: Expansions {
ht_score: false,
ft_score: false,
player_stats: false,
player_split_stats: false,
player_goal_stats: false,
player_split_goal_stats: false,
max_player_assists: 0,
first_goalscorer: true,
},
},
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -508,20 +512,19 @@ async fn main() -> Result<(), Box<dyn Error>> {
let exploration = explore(
&IntervalConfig {
intervals: INTERVALS as u8,
// h1_probs: ModelParams { home_prob: ft_search_outcome.optimal_values[0], away_prob: ft_search_outcome.optimal_values[1], common_prob: ft_search_outcome.optimal_values[2] },
// h2_probs: ModelParams { home_prob: ft_search_outcome.optimal_values[0], away_prob: ft_search_outcome.optimal_values[1], common_prob: ft_search_outcome.optimal_values[2] },
h1_probs: ScoringProbs::from(adj_optimal_h1.as_slice()),
h2_probs: ScoringProbs::from(adj_optimal_h2.as_slice()),
players: vec![(player.clone(), *prob)],
player_probs: vec![(player.clone(), PlayerProbs { goal: Some(*prob), assist: None })],
prune_thresholds: PruneThresholds {
max_total_goals: MAX_TOTAL_GOALS_FULL,
min_prob: GOALSCORER_MIN_PROB,
},
expansions: Expansions {
ht_score: false,
ft_score: false,
player_stats: true,
player_split_stats: false,
player_goal_stats: true,
player_split_goal_stats: false,
max_player_assists: 0,
first_goalscorer: false,
},
},
Expand All @@ -534,18 +537,10 @@ async fn main() -> Result<(), Box<dyn Error>> {
&exploration.player_lookup,
);
fitted_anytime_goalscorer_probs.push(isolated_prob);
// println!("anytime scorer {player:?}, prob: {isolated_prob:.3}");
}
fitted_anytime_goalscorer_outcomes.push(OutcomeType::None);
// fitted_anytime_goalscorer_probs.normalise(home_away_expectations.0 + home_away_expectations.1);
fitted_anytime_goalscorer_probs.push(draw_prob);

// let anytime_goalscorer_booksum = fitted_anytime_goalscorer_probs.sum();
// let anytime_goalscorer_overround = Market::fit(
// &OVERROUND_METHOD,
// anytime_gs.market.prices.clone(),
// anytime_goalscorer_booksum,
// ).overround;
let anytime_goalscorer_overround = Overround {
method: OVERROUND_METHOD,
value: anytime_gs.market.offered_booksum() / fitted_anytime_goalscorer_probs.sum()
Expand All @@ -571,11 +566,94 @@ async fn main() -> Result<(), Box<dyn Error>> {
fitted_anytime_goalscorer.offer_type,
fitted_anytime_goalscorer.market.probs.sum(),
implied_booksum(&fitted_anytime_goalscorer.market.prices),
fitted_first_goalscorer.market.probs.len(),
fitted_anytime_goalscorer.market.probs.len(),
Console::default().render(&table_anytime_goalscorer)
);
}

let sample_anytime_assist_booksum = anytime_assist.values().map(|price| 1.0 / price).sum::<f64>();

let anytime_assist = fit_offer(
OfferType::AnytimeAssist,
&anytime_assist,
sample_anytime_assist_booksum / anytime_goalscorer_overround.value,
);

let fitted_assist_probs = fit::fit_anytime_assist_all(
&ScoringProbs::from(adj_optimal_h1.as_slice()),
&ScoringProbs::from(adj_optimal_h2.as_slice()),
&anytime_assist,
draw_prob,
anytime_assist.market.fair_booksum()
);

let mut fitted_anytime_assist_outcomes =
HashLookup::with_capacity(fitted_assist_probs.len());
let mut fitted_anytime_assist_probs = Vec::with_capacity(fitted_assist_probs.len());
for (player, prob) in &fitted_assist_probs {
fitted_anytime_assist_outcomes.push(OutcomeType::Player(player.clone()));
let exploration = explore(
&IntervalConfig {
intervals: INTERVALS as u8,
h1_probs: ScoringProbs::from(adj_optimal_h1.as_slice()),
h2_probs: ScoringProbs::from(adj_optimal_h2.as_slice()),
player_probs: vec![(player.clone(), PlayerProbs { goal: None, assist: Some(*prob) })],
prune_thresholds: PruneThresholds {
max_total_goals: MAX_TOTAL_GOALS_FULL,
min_prob: GOALSCORER_MIN_PROB,
},
expansions: Expansions {
ht_score: false,
ft_score: false,
player_goal_stats: false,
player_split_goal_stats: false,
max_player_assists: 1,
first_goalscorer: false,
},
},
0..INTERVALS as u8,
);
let isolated_prob = isolate(
&OfferType::AnytimeAssist,
&OutcomeType::Player(player.clone()),
&exploration.prospects,
&exploration.player_lookup,
);
fitted_anytime_assist_probs.push(isolated_prob);
}
fitted_anytime_assist_outcomes.push(OutcomeType::None);
fitted_anytime_assist_probs.push(draw_prob);

let anytime_assist_overround = Overround {
method: OVERROUND_METHOD,
value: anytime_assist.market.offered_booksum() / fitted_anytime_assist_probs.sum()
};
let fitted_anytime_assist = Offer {
offer_type: OfferType::AnytimeAssist,
outcomes: fitted_anytime_assist_outcomes,
market: Market::frame(
&anytime_assist_overround,
fitted_anytime_assist_probs,
&SINGLE_PRICE_BOUNDS,
),
};

if args.player_assists {
println!(
"sample anytime assists σ={:.3}",
implied_booksum(&anytime_assist.market.prices)
);
let table_anytime_assist = print::tabulate_offer(&fitted_anytime_assist);
println!(
"{:?}: [Σ={:.3}, σ={:.3}, n={}]\n{}",
fitted_anytime_assist.offer_type,
fitted_anytime_assist.market.probs.sum(),
implied_booksum(&fitted_anytime_assist.market.prices),
fitted_anytime_assist.market.probs.len(),
Console::default().render(&table_anytime_assist)
);
}

let market_errors = [
(&h1_h2h, &fitted_h1_h2h),
(&h1_goals_ou, &fitted_h1_goals_ou),
Expand All @@ -586,6 +664,7 @@ async fn main() -> Result<(), Box<dyn Error>> {
(&ft_correct_score, &fitted_ft_correct_score),
(&first_gs, &fitted_first_goalscorer),
(&anytime_gs, &fitted_anytime_goalscorer),
(&anytime_assist, &fitted_anytime_assist),
]
.iter()
.map(|(sample, fitted)| {
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -622,6 +701,7 @@ async fn main() -> Result<(), Box<dyn Error>> {
fitted_ft_correct_score,
fitted_first_goalscorer,
fitted_anytime_goalscorer,
fitted_anytime_assist,
];

let table_overrounds = print::tabulate_overrounds(&fitted_markets);
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -861,16 +941,17 @@ fn explore_scores(h1_probs: ScoringProbs, h2_probs: ScoringProbs) -> Exploration
intervals: INTERVALS as u8,
h1_probs,
h2_probs,
players: vec![],
player_probs: vec![],
prune_thresholds: PruneThresholds {
max_total_goals: MAX_TOTAL_GOALS_FULL,
min_prob: 0.0,
},
expansions: Expansions {
ht_score: true,
ft_score: true,
player_stats: false,
player_split_stats: false,
player_goal_stats: false,
player_split_goal_stats: false,
max_player_assists: 0,
first_goalscorer: false,
},
},
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -989,7 +1070,7 @@ async fn read_contest_data(args: &Args) -> anyhow::Result<ContestSummary> {
//ContestModel::read_json_file(path)?
unimplemented!()
} else if let Some(id) = args.download.as_ref() {
download_by_id(FeedId::new(DataProvider(PROVIDER::PointsBet), id.clone())).await?
download_by_id(id.clone()).await?
} else {
unreachable!()
}
Expand Down
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