Skip to content

Commit

Permalink
Query spec for interval prospects
Browse files Browse the repository at this point in the history
  • Loading branch information
@ekoutanov
ekoutanov committed Dec 9, 2023
1 parent 530c96a commit 87466cf
Show file tree
Hide file tree
Showing 7 changed files with 354 additions and 134 deletions.
5 changes: 3 additions & 2 deletions brumby-soccer/benches/cri_isolate.rs
View file
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,7 +1,8 @@
use brumby_soccer::domain::{OfferType, OutcomeType, Player, Side};
use criterion::{criterion_group, criterion_main, Criterion};

use brumby_soccer::interval::{explore, isolate, Exploration, IntervalConfig, ScoringProbs, PruneThresholds};
use brumby_soccer::interval::{explore, Exploration, IntervalConfig, ScoringProbs, PruneThresholds};
use brumby_soccer::interval::query::isolate;

fn criterion_benchmark(c: &mut Criterion) {
let player = Player::Named(Side::Home, "Markos".into());
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -33,7 +34,7 @@ fn criterion_benchmark(c: &mut Criterion) {
);
assert!(isolated > 0.0);

c.bench_function("cri_isolate_first_goalscorer_18_unbounded", |b| {
c.bench_function("cri_isolate_first_goalscorer_18", |b| {
let exploration = prepare(18, u16::MAX, player.clone());
b.iter(|| {
isolate(
Expand Down
3 changes: 2 additions & 1 deletion brumby-soccer/src/bin/soc_prices.rs
View file
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ use brumby::{factorial, poisson};
use brumby_soccer::{scoregrid};
use brumby_soccer::domain::{OfferType, OutcomeType, Over, Period, Player, Side};
use brumby_soccer::domain::Player::Named;
use brumby_soccer::interval::{Expansions, explore, IntervalConfig, isolate, PruneThresholds, ScoringProbs};
use brumby_soccer::interval::{Expansions, explore, IntervalConfig, PruneThresholds, ScoringProbs};
use brumby::linear::matrix::Matrix;
use brumby::market::{Market, Overround, OverroundMethod, PriceBounds};
use brumby::opt::{
Expand All @@ -28,6 +28,7 @@ use brumby::opt::{
use brumby::probs::SliceExt;
use brumby_soccer::scoregrid::{from_correct_score, home_away_expectations};
use brumby_soccer::data::{ContestSummary, download_by_id};
use brumby_soccer::interval::query::isolate;

const OVERROUND_METHOD: OverroundMethod = OverroundMethod::OddsRatio;
const SINGLE_PRICE_BOUNDS: PriceBounds = 1.01..=301.0;
Expand Down
211 changes: 108 additions & 103 deletions brumby-soccer/src/interval.rs
View file
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,8 +1,13 @@
use rustc_hash::FxHashMap;
use std::ops::Range;

use rustc_hash::FxHashMap;

use brumby::lookup::Lookup;

use crate::domain::{OfferType, OutcomeType, Player, Score, Side};

pub mod query;

#[derive(Clone, Debug, Hash, PartialEq, Eq, PartialOrd, Ord)]
pub struct Prospect {
pub score: Score,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -54,9 +59,15 @@ pub struct Expansions {
impl Expansions {
fn validate(&self) {
if self.player_split_stats {
assert!(self.player_stats, "cannot expand player split stats without player stats");
assert!(
self.player_stats,
"cannot expand player split stats without player stats"
);
}
assert!(self.ft_score || self.player_stats || self.first_goalscorer, "at least one expansion must be enabled")
assert!(
self.ft_score || self.player_stats || self.first_goalscorer,
"at least one expansion must be enabled"
)
}
}

Expand All @@ -74,7 +85,7 @@ impl Default for Expansions {
#[derive(Debug)]
pub struct PruneThresholds {
pub max_total_goals: u16,
pub min_prob: f64
pub min_prob: f64,
}

#[derive(Debug)]
Expand All @@ -89,7 +100,7 @@ pub struct IntervalConfig {

#[derive(Debug)]
pub struct Exploration {
pub player_lookup: Vec<Player>,
pub player_lookup: Lookup<Player>,
pub prospects: Prospects,
pub pruned: f64,
}
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -118,10 +129,10 @@ enum Half {
Second,
}

pub fn explore(config: &IntervalConfig, explore_intervals: Range<u8>) -> Exploration {
pub fn explore(config: &IntervalConfig, include_intervals: Range<u8>) -> Exploration {
config.expansions.validate();

let mut player_lookup = Vec::with_capacity(config.players.len() + 1);
let mut player_lookup = Lookup::with_capacity(config.players.len() + 1);
let mut home_scorers = Vec::with_capacity(config.players.len() + 1);
let mut away_scorers = Vec::with_capacity(config.players.len() + 1);
let mut combined_home_scorer_prob = 0.0;
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -150,7 +161,7 @@ pub fn explore(config: &IntervalConfig, explore_intervals: Range<u8>) -> Explora
current_prospects.insert(Prospect::init(player_lookup.len()), 1.0);
let mut pruned = 0.0;

for interval in explore_intervals {
for interval in include_intervals {
let half = if interval < config.intervals / 2 {
Half::First
} else {
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -295,7 +306,10 @@ fn merge(
merged.score.home += 1;
}

if expansions.first_goalscorer && merged.first_scorer.is_none() && partial.first_scoring_side.unwrap() == &Side::Home {
if expansions.first_goalscorer
&& merged.first_scorer.is_none()
&& partial.first_scoring_side.unwrap() == &Side::Home
{
merged.first_scorer = Some(scorer);
}
}
Expand All @@ -314,7 +328,10 @@ fn merge(
merged.score.away += 1;
}

if expansions.first_goalscorer && merged.first_scorer.is_none() && partial.first_scoring_side.unwrap() == &Side::Away {
if expansions.first_goalscorer
&& merged.first_scorer.is_none()
&& partial.first_scoring_side.unwrap() == &Side::Away
{
merged.first_scorer = Some(scorer);
}
}
Expand All @@ -324,99 +341,87 @@ fn merge(
.or_insert(merged_prob);
}

#[derive(Debug)]
pub enum IsolationState {
None,
PlayerLookup(usize)
}

#[must_use]
pub fn isolate(
offer_type: &OfferType,
outcome_type: &OutcomeType,
prospects: &Prospects,
player_lookup: &[Player],
) -> f64 {
match offer_type {
OfferType::HeadToHead(_) => unimplemented!(),
OfferType::TotalGoalsOverUnder(_, _) => unimplemented!(),
OfferType::CorrectScore(_) => unimplemented!(),
OfferType::DrawNoBet => unimplemented!(),
OfferType::AnytimeGoalscorer => {
isolate_anytime_goalscorer(outcome_type, prospects, player_lookup)
}
OfferType::FirstGoalscorer => {
isolate_first_goalscorer(outcome_type, prospects, player_lookup)
}
OfferType::PlayerShotsOnTarget(_) => unimplemented!(),
OfferType::AnytimeAssist => unimplemented!(),
}
}

#[must_use]
fn isolate_first_goalscorer(
outcome_type: &OutcomeType,
prospects: &Prospects,
player_lookup: &[Player],
) -> f64 {
match outcome_type {
OutcomeType::Player(player) => prospects
.iter()
.filter(|(prospect, _)| {
prospect
.first_scorer
.map(|scorer| &player_lookup[scorer] == player)
.unwrap_or(false)
})
.map(|(_, prob)| prob)
.sum(),
OutcomeType::None => prospects
.iter()
.filter(|(prospect, _)| prospect.first_scorer.is_none())
.map(|(_, prob)| prob)
.sum(),
_ => panic!(
"{outcome_type:?} unsupported in {:?}",
OfferType::FirstGoalscorer
),
}
}

#[must_use]
fn isolate_anytime_goalscorer(
outcome_type: &OutcomeType,
prospects: &Prospects,
player_lookup: &[Player],
) -> f64 {
match outcome_type {
OutcomeType::Player(player) => prospects
.iter()
.filter(|(prospect, _)| {
let scorer = prospect
.stats
.iter()
.enumerate()
.find(|(scorer_index, _)| &player_lookup[*scorer_index] == player);
match scorer {
None => {
panic!("missing {player:?} from stats")
}
Some((_, stats)) => stats.h1.goals > 0 || stats.h2.goals > 0,
}
})
.map(|(_, prob)| prob)
.sum(),
OutcomeType::None => prospects
.iter()
.filter(|(prospect, _)| prospect.first_scorer.is_none())
.map(|(_, prob)| prob)
.sum(),
_ => panic!(
"{outcome_type:?} unsupported in {:?}",
OfferType::AnytimeGoalscorer
),
}
}
// #[must_use]
// pub fn isolate(
// offer_type: &OfferType,
// outcome_type: &OutcomeType,
// prospects: &Prospects,
// player_lookup: &Lookup<Player>,
// ) -> f64 {
// match offer_type {
// OfferType::HeadToHead(_) => unimplemented!(),
// OfferType::TotalGoalsOverUnder(_, _) => unimplemented!(),
// OfferType::CorrectScore(_) => unimplemented!(),
// OfferType::DrawNoBet => unimplemented!(),
// OfferType::AnytimeGoalscorer => {
// isolate_anytime_goalscorer(outcome_type, prospects, player_lookup)
// }
// OfferType::FirstGoalscorer => {
// isolate_first_goalscorer(outcome_type, prospects, player_lookup)
// }
// OfferType::PlayerShotsOnTarget(_) => unimplemented!(),
// OfferType::AnytimeAssist => unimplemented!(),
// }
// }
//
// #[must_use]
// fn isolate_first_goalscorer(
// outcome_type: &OutcomeType,
// prospects: &Prospects,
// player_lookup: &Lookup<Player>,
// ) -> f64 {
// match outcome_type {
// OutcomeType::Player(player) => prospects
// .iter()
// .filter(|(prospect, _)| {
// prospect
// .first_scorer
// .map(|scorer| &player_lookup[scorer] == player)
// .unwrap_or(false)
// })
// .map(|(_, prob)| prob)
// .sum(),
// OutcomeType::None => prospects
// .iter()
// .filter(|(prospect, _)| prospect.first_scorer.is_none())
// .map(|(_, prob)| prob)
// .sum(),
// _ => panic!("{outcome_type:?} unsupported"),
// }
// }
//
// #[must_use]
// fn isolate_anytime_goalscorer(
// outcome_type: &OutcomeType,
// prospects: &Prospects,
// player_lookup: &Lookup<Player>,
// ) -> f64 {
// match outcome_type {
// OutcomeType::Player(player) => prospects
// .iter()
// .filter(|(prospect, _)| {
// let scorer = prospect
// .stats
// .iter()
// .enumerate()
// .find(|(scorer_index, _)| &player_lookup[*scorer_index] == player);
// match scorer {
// None => {
// panic!("missing {player:?} from stats")
// }
// Some((_, stats)) => stats.h1.goals > 0 || stats.h2.goals > 0,
// }
// })
// .map(|(_, prob)| prob)
// .sum(),
// OutcomeType::None => prospects
// .iter()
// .filter(|(prospect, _)| prospect.first_scorer.is_none())
// .map(|(_, prob)| prob)
// .sum(),
// _ => panic!("{outcome_type:?} unsupported"),
// }
// }

#[cfg(test)]
mod tests;
Loading

0 comments on commit 87466cf

Please sign in to comment.