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seananderson committed Oct 9, 2024
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54 changes: 29 additions & 25 deletions slides/dogfish-rpr-slides.Rmd
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Expand Up @@ -800,7 +800,7 @@ include_graphics("../figs/ss3/M_bound_fec.png")
.tiny[
- Low fecundity implies an upper bound on natural mortality. Otherwise, a female cannot replace herself over her lifetime
- Population cannot sustain itself if slope of replacement line > 1
- Growth and fecundity implies maximum natural mortality between 0.08 - 0.10
- Growth and fecundity implies maximum natural mortality between 0.080.10
]

---
Expand All @@ -820,11 +820,13 @@ Adjust maturity ogive for two year gestation period. On average, half of mature

No recruitment deviations (cohorts not observable from length data).

In essence, a production model informed by catch and indices, while size composition informs selectivity. <br>Age-structure incorporates lags in stock response to exploitation pattern (selectivity and fishing mortality).
In essence, a production model informed by catch and indices, while size composition informs selectivity.

Age-structure incorporates lags in stock response to exploitation pattern (selectivity and fishing mortality).
]

---
# A need for a stock-recruit curve for Dogfish-like species
## A stock-recruit curve for Dogfish-like species

Low fecundity limits stock productivity. Example to illustrate:

Expand All @@ -846,9 +848,9 @@ z_0 &= -\log(1/\phi_0)
.xsmall[
$S_y$ is the spawning output (number of pups). The exponent is the survival (density-dependent = survival increases as depletion $S_y/S_0$ is decreases).

$z_\mathrm{frac}$ is the proportion of unfished density dependent mortality when stockzero (0–1, higher = more productive stock)
$z_\mathrm{frac}$ is the proportion of unfished density dependent mortality when stock&nbsp;&nbsp;zero (0–1, higher = more productive stock)

$\beta$ controls concavity in density dependent mortality as stock declines (1 = linear)
$\beta$ controls concavity in density dependent mortality as stock declines (1&nbsp;=&nbsp;linear)
]

.tiny[
Expand All @@ -871,14 +873,14 @@ include_graphics("../figs/ss3/prof/prof_zfrac_SR.png")
---
# Base and sensitivity models

From base model **A0**, explored various uncertainties in the set of models (Working Paper p. 30-31):
From base model **A0**, explored various uncertainties in the set of models (Working Paper p. 3031):

- Growth (**A2-A4**)
- Natural mortality (**A9-A10**)
- Growth (**A2A4**)
- Natural mortality (**A9A10**)
- Discard mortality rate (**A5**, **A14**)
- Inclusion/exclusion and weighting of index from modern surveys (**A7**, **A8**, **A13**)
- Stock-recruit productivity (**A11-A12**)
- Cause of decline in modern indices (fishery vs. non-fishery causes) (**B1-B5**)
- Stock-recruit productivity (**A11A12**)
- Cause of decline in modern indices (fishery vs. non-fishery causes) (**B1B5**)


---
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -927,7 +929,7 @@ include_graphics("../figs/ss3/set_a_mat/N_age_A1.png")
.tiny[
Demonstration of the lagged effects on the age structure of the population.

Early Vitamin A fished out older animals (age 30+), population recovered from younger animals (20+) invulnerable to the fishery.
Early Vitamin A fishery fished out older animals (age 30+), population recovered from younger animals (20+) invulnerable to the fishery.
]
]

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -958,7 +960,7 @@ Due to differences in selectivity & maturity: declines after vitamin A fishery,

# Spawning depletion<br>.tiny[Base model, sens. growth and discard mortality]

```{r, out.width="60%"}
```{r, out.width="50%"}
include_graphics("../figs/ss3/set_a_mat/depletion_est.png")
```

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1070,7 +1072,7 @@ include_graphics("../figs/ss3/prof/like_zfrac.png")

.tiny[
- Stock-recruit productivity parameter $z_\textrm{frac}$ hits lower bound, i.e., there are no MSY reference points
- Presented results with $z_\textrm{frac} = 0.4$, following US assessment
- Presented results with $z_\textrm{frac}$ = 0.4, following US assessment
]


Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1121,7 +1123,7 @@ class: center, middle, inverse

---

## Why spawning output over spawning biomass?
### Why spawning output instead of spawning biomass?

- Provides a more direct measure of stock productivity and we can better estimate it than for most teleost fish.

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1224,7 +1226,7 @@ COSEWIC Metric A measures the probability that the stock has declined by 70%, 50

--

We define the generation time as 1/M + age at 50% maturity. I.e., 1/0.065 + 33.5 = ~50 years.
We define the generation time as 1/M + age at 50% maturity. I.e., about 50 years.

--

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1273,9 +1275,7 @@ Guidelines:

--

.small[
*This assessment is not a rebuilding plan.*
]

---
## Forecasts of $S/S_0$ under fixed catch scenarios
Expand All @@ -1294,7 +1294,7 @@ include_graphics("../figs/ss3/refpts/rebuild-timeframe-dots.png")
---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Discussion
# Discussion

---
# Improvements over previous assessment
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1395,9 +1395,9 @@ include_graphics("../figs/cpue/cpue-by-depth.png")
```

---
# Sablefish survey Dogfish index (deep) is not increasing
### Sablefish survey Dogfish index is flat

Trap survey, October-November, 200 m to 1000 m.
Trap survey, OctoberNovember, 200 m to 1000 m<br>(i.e, deep).

.pull-left[![](../figs/sablefish-map.jpg)]

Expand All @@ -1411,28 +1411,32 @@ Trap survey, October-November, 200 m to 1000 m.
- But, commercial CPUE was year-round and trend was largely same across months...

---
# Standardized CPUE by month (fixed y-axis)
# Standardized CPUE by month<br>.xsmall[(fixed y-axis)]

```{r, out.width="600px"}
include_graphics("../figs/cpue/cpue-lines-by-month-facets-abs.png")
```

---
# Standardized CPUE by month (scaled to have geometric mean = 1)

# Standardized CPUE by month<br>.xsmall[(scaled to have geometric mean = 1)]

```{r, out.width="600px"}
include_graphics("../figs/cpue/cpue-lines-by-month-facets.png")
```

---
# Slopes of CPUE by month
# Slopes of CPUE by month


```{r, out.width="700px"}
```{r, out.width="70%"}
include_graphics("../figs/cpue/cpue-slopes-by-month.png")
```

.xsmall[
- May-June (Synoptic WCVI survey timing) typical
- Fairly consistent but August steepest (HBLL timing) and October/November least steep
]

---
# Environmentally driven movement?

Expand Down

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