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Add timestamps for video 25: Chris' keynote (#16)
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References towards #11
Closes #15
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bsenst authored Jul 4, 2022
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Expand Up @@ -13,12 +13,56 @@ Discourse Discussion
https://discourse.pymc.io/t/the-bayesian-workflow-building-a-covid-19-model-by-thomas-wiecki/6017
## Timestamps
- 0:00 Start of event
- x:xx
- x:xx
## Note: help us add timestamps here
https://github.com/pymc-devs/video-timestamps
00:00 Welcome notes by Chris
00:36 PyMC3 background information
01:40 Probabilistic programming languages
02:25 Stochastic language "primitives"
04:46 The golden age of probabilistic programming
05:55 How we got here
06:23 In the year 2000
07:06 WinBUGS
08:24 A WinBUGS model
09:08 Limitations of WinBUGS
09:35 Difficult to debug
10:04 OpenBUGS
11:01 Component PASCAL
12:10 The first version of PyMC
14:00 And then there were three ...
14:39 PyMC version 2
16:28 gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo
18:24 refactoring the code base
19:35 Theano
20:49 Automatic gradient calculation
21:15 PyMC3
22:09 A PyMC3 model
23:53 PyMC3 automates fitting the model
24:56 PyMC3 - areas of application
25:54 PyMC3 to model the reproductive number of COVID-19 cases
26:43 Sponsored project under NumFOCUS
27:32 The change to the Theano project
29:00 A new backend for PyMC
29:30 Trying TensorFlow
30:30 TensorFlow Probability
31:12 TensorFlow 2
32:30 In-person developer summits
32:50 The challenge when coming up with TensorFlow
34:21 Adpoted approach: coroutines
35:24 TFP-based PyMC4 prototype
36:28 Multiple chains
37:28 Distributions as models
38:06 Obstacles using TensorFlow probabilities
39:07 The future of PyMC
39:33 Theano-JAX
41:21 Autograd + XLA = JAX
42:19 Theano-PyMC
42:39 Specify model in PyMC3 ...
42:57 ... use JAX for the Theano backend
43:36 ... sample using TensorFlow probability
44:21 Remarkable performance
44:59 PyMC Model, Theano Graph, TFP Sampler and JAX Executable
45:13 "4.5 frameworks on 25 lines of code"
46:11 We need you!
47:10 Thank you!
Speaker bio:
Chris Fonnesback is a Senior Quantitative Analyst in Baseball Operations for the New York Yankees. He is interested in computational statistics, machine learning, Bayesian methods, and applied decision analysis. He hails from Vancouver, Canada and received his Ph.D. from the University of Georgia.
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