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Update green hydrogen cost and tax parameterization and near-term bounds for electrolysis and CCU technologies #1882

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@fschreyer fschreyer commented Nov 13, 2024

Purpose of this PR

This PR introduces a couple of changes on green H2 production and near-term bounds of H2/synthetic liquids/gas.

Green H2 cost:

  • increase initial electrolysis CAPEX based on Ramboll study / IEA Hydrogen Review (2300 USD/kW(el) at 0.5 GW(el) cum cap in 2020)
  • slightly increase default flexibility subsidy for electrolysis to better fit Enertile scenario data (cm_PriceDurSlope_elh2 to GLO 20)
  • relatively larger tax exemptions for electrolysis in Europe than in other parts of the world as Europe has high electricity taxes (cm_SEtaxRampUpParam to GLO.elh2.a 0.2, GLO.elh2.b 20, EUR_regi.elh2.a 0.15, EUR_regi.elh2.b 40 )

Details on the parameterization and results can be found here: https://github.com/remindmodel/development_issues/issues/404
Fyi @Renato-Rodrigues, this is also what you now already used in your EU 2040 runs.

Global near-term bounds (for now distributed to regions by GDP share)

  • electrolysis 2025: min. 2 GW(el), max. 10 GW(el) globally
  • synthetic liquids / e-fuels: 2025: min. 0.5 TWh/yr, max. 5 TWh/yr, 2030: max. 30 TWh/yr

Numbers are roughly based on Adrian's project plots based on IEA H2 database and can be refined later. No need to be too precise for now.

Type of change

(Make sure to delete from the Type-of-change list the items not relevant to your PR)

  • Minor change (default scenarios show only small differences)

Checklist:

  • My code follows the coding etiquette
  • I performed a self-review of my own code
  • I explained my changes within the PR, particularly in hard-to-understand areas
  • I checked that the in-code documentation is up-to-date
  • I adjusted the reporting in remind2 where it was needed
  • I adjusted forbiddenColumnNames in readCheckScenarioConfig.R in case the PR leads to deprecated switches
  • All automated model tests pass (FAIL 0 in the output of make test)
  • The changelog CHANGELOG.md has been updated correctly

Further information (optional):

  • Test runs are here:
  • Comparison of results (what changes by this PR?):

/p/tmp/schreyer/Modeling/remind/Current/compScen-H2Update-2024-11-13_09.06.42-H12.pdf

Felix Schreyer added 8 commits November 5, 2024 11:28
…current and announced global projects, bounds distributed to regions by GDP share for now
…ies of CCU technologies: lower and upper bounds for synthetic liquids based on global IEA project annoucements, distributed by GDP share to regions for now. No synthetic gas capacities before 2030.
…fit flexibility effect derived from Enertile scenario data
800 EUR/kW(el) / 0.65 (elh2 efficiency) * 1.1 (EUR to USD, 2015) ~ 1350 USD/kW(H2) = inco0
Assume floor cost: 100 EUR/kW(el)
100 EUR/kW(el) / 0.75 (long-term elh2 efficiency) * 1.1 (EUR to USD, 2015) ~ 150 USD/kW(H2) -> incolearn = 1200
Initialize learning curve for electrolysis at 0.5 GW(el) installed globally at CAPEX of 3000 USD/kW(el) in 2020.
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2300 USD/kW(el) in 2020, right?

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Looks good to me

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