Simple application for running analysis on the Bitcoin network over the bitcoind JSON RPC.
Run a statistical analysis of the Bitcoin blockchain to answer the following questions:
- How often does the Bitcoin network see two consecutive blocks mined more than 2 hours apart?
- How many times has the above happened so far in the history of Bitcoin?
In order to utilize this program, you will need to setup a TOML config file to connect to your bitcoind RPC endpoint. You can also utilize ENV variables prefixed with APP_
. See the src/config.example.toml
file for more details on fields to configure.
Note: If you are running Umbrel, it is best to forward 127.0.0.1:PORT to umbrel.local:8332. You can setup a temporary SSH forward using ssh -f -L 8000:127.0.0.1:8332 umbrel@umbrel.local sleep 1000;
Run statistical analysis on Bitcoin blocks
USAGE:
bitcoin-statistics [OPTIONS] <SUBCOMMAND>
OPTIONS:
-c, --config <CONFIG>
Path to config file if applicable [default: src/config]
-f, --full-population <FULL_POPULATION>
Run the analysis on the full population Small hack as clap does not handle bools
properly [default: true]
-h, --help
Print help information
-m, --margin-error <MARGIN_ERROR>
Margin of error for sampling [default: 0.05]
-s, --std-deviation <STD_DEVIATION>
Standard deviation for sampling [default: 0.5]
-V, --version
Print version information
-z, --z-score <Z_SCORE>
Z-Score for sampling [default: 1.96]
SUBCOMMANDS:
block-time-drift Run the drift time analysis using a drift time as unix seconds
help Print this message or the help of the given subcommand(s)
Once configuration to your local bitcoind RPC node is setup, you can simply run cargo run block-time-drift
to run the default statistical analysis. You can output the results to a file normally, cargo run block-time-drift > output.txt
I decided that because I run my own node, I can access the blockchain data directly. I chose to use Rust as that is a language I enjoy using. This could also (more easily) be done using Python.
We know that the Bitcoin network attempts to maintain mining of blocks ocurring within a 10-minute window. This would give us about 6 blocks per hour. Thus, as the Bitcoin protocol attempts to provide a fixed-time block mining, we can assume a Poisson distribution. This would provide us with the formula 1 / (λ x E ^ (-2 x λ)) where λ = 6. I used a few online sources to assist me with these calculations as math is not my fondest skill. Using this, we get the following expectations for probability of seeing two consecutive blocks being mined over 2 hours apart:
Every 27126 hours / 1130 days / 3 years.
At the time of this writing, there are over 748k blocks which gives us a fairly large population size. I decided to take a random sampling of the data using the Cochran Formula to determine the sample size to compare against the assumptions. One caveat is the inherit reliability of the data as block timestamps are not 100% accurate. As they are miner provided, the rule is that they fall within a two-hour window of network adjusted time and are greater than the median of the past 11 blocks. See BIP-113.
Analysis was conducted around 748438 BST (Bitcoin Standard Time or block height)
Using a sample population resulted in few to no results after several consecutive runs. This would seem to support the original assumption considering that we should see this once every 3 years and given Bitcoin's age, there should only be around 4 incidents in total.
Utilizing a z-score of 1.96
With a standard deviation of 0.5
Within a 5.00% error margin
Sampling 384 blocks from a population of 748443
+------------------------------------+-----------------------------------+-------------------------------+
| Block Times |
+------------------------------------+-----------------------------------+-------------------------------+
| Parent Block Hash | Child Block Hash | Mining Time |
+------------------------------------+-----------------------------------+-------------------------------+
| Occurrences: 0, Mean: 9.97 minutes, Standard Deviation: 12.37, Poisson Probability: 1 / 27932.35 hours |
+------------------------------------+-----------------------------------+-------------------------------+
Utilizing a z-score of 1.96
With a standard deviation of 0.5
Within a 5.00% error margin
Sampling 384 blocks from a population of 748443
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| Block Times |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| Parent Block Hash | Child Block Hash | Mining Time |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000162219e073a3db1debe242c2b5721bb8df5611cc09b44e95a48e2a91 | 00000000a9924bf2e932c6ec429481b453703398aa1683aaa99be9c5740953e9 | 194 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| Occurrences: 1, Mean: 9.54 minutes, Standard Deviation: 13.4, Poisson Probability: 1 / 46000.89 hours |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
A second pass using a lower margin of error resulting in a larger sample size:
Utilizing a z-score of 1.96
With a standard deviation of 0.5
Within a 1.00% error margin
Sampling 9480 blocks from a population of 748444
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| Block Times |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| Parent Block Hash | Child Block Hash | Mining Time |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000093936119142f0f653103e3775ee53144dbbff9b01c9a9064380a0171 | 00000000de6d334392a180078b3d0086284e3d5e375e7da3d303d6569ef56b73 | 392 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000af24991ed5c28707afdb95b33d6a52d6117704d3605ea4efd1abbaeb | 0000000087a9bbec99e23f6b67c4569dc168450668503eda977cbc118ea698eb | 230 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000006a9a61f62ab4af162ed30272930c2acfc1139d6666455e60569a0a5c | 00000000dd431bce4cf36326ee8b51a7136ebcf664976ba7087bf7d8f3ce0f5d | 224 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000de6d334392a180078b3d0086284e3d5e375e7da3d303d6569ef56b73 | 000000005b0065cbd1fe6199a14a62baa264c17d432610a18d59275020be2159 | 150 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000000000000000b975fedb1fe62e271bd20d1fa74d2fe28dcfac6f761f3 | 0000000000000000000b5d9bcbd38c64e5a39bf4073f7a94348c1336618957ae | 122 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| Occurrences: 5, Mean: 9.48 minutes, Standard Deviation: 11.34, Poisson Probability: 1 / 49369.62 hours |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
Here, we have a total of 5 incidents where consecutive blocks exceed 2-hour intervals. Block hash 00000000de6d334392a180078b3d0086284e3d5e375e7da3d303d6569ef56b73 mined on 2009-08-22 at height 21446 being the longest in this sampling clocking in at over 6.5 hours.
As a result, I added the option to run a statistical analysis using the entire population set. This of course, took far longer to complete but provided a full picture:
Using total population of 748472
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| Block Times |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| Parent Block Hash | Child Block Hash | Mining Time |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f | 00000000839a8e6886ab5951d76f411475428afc90947ee320161bbf18eb6048 | 7719 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000a367d068c6c60eaf5ac48769098cf9b0124bcb91e27dbe388470e3fd | 00000000720e7a19e31ca6cc9d2364705b49590f0ede8b0356cb46a8e486ab8f | 1508 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000fe14ebcd6219d3cbfbc6550430826d8686c06377b7ffc915a64f82cf | 000000006dba4d567bdd008f233f826a05a2b9195324af92a231fbc9273cf901 | 1506 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000080f17a0c5a67f663a9bc9969eb37e81666d9321125f0e293656f8a37 | 00000000b3322c8c3ef7d2cf6da009a776e6a99ee65ec5a32f3f345712238473 | 1452 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000038b8fb10f5e6a0ff451d4ef4ba871fbcb7eb925f3e59c394e37cffb0 | 0000000058fcbaf4726da493b9bdf47bc0be2b1f224f31e01341eeb576c8acd6 | 1229 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000002cbfbd983a7363525739e00a58ac2716c6ae78b360371a86318f71e7 | 0000000035a425c8689d3ad26574c4699fd62afe20d8ab412f3c20999587e92c | 1003 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000f5138a3ae063a99bbb7f8d1edb25471524201bc7624e9dbd408328b4 | 00000000bef2501f26e11064cb3bd349de002ff50aca520e15d6d3dffc5d7e2a | 785 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000392dcf4bd5d4d3ca5106a5f76a2bdc13c58a9b141cf93eaef6a88136 | 00000000f969669f7db3908ce4a1598e0b1ddf341d02017cfe48352665a9263b | 636 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000e03d031ae6d78de2cdccb344fb6cccc729ce6098d3302ba7bc379636 | 00000000f68eccb15fe31a0b7a316de6b07d718b1b04d30720a8368eab2f196f | 625 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000071350772f98f84babf35502b33d42ee8466d3dde0f376c4120352081 | 00000000bb0d9430d3d1bab474be5050342161efcca9f7e45b151bff9a700944 | 514 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000b6928bb80f26b9937497b5932590be2840f3d78e3714b383e95fb61d | 00000000c4168c26f904f31a316a5bacf951c71c77eefb0aa12b84fbaa0f284a | 511 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000057756d646e8bf975bdb81c66658e269d714e8fef608cde216ca6bbbf | 00000000544380bd9b3610d75bfddf071a8ec2b23c2fd43372fec1ef5c48be73 | 507 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000001fccbc276846ef8e6f2592282dd6c11d0b097852693b961e127825d5 | 00000000dd23fc58d372dfde4f029e3ffeb538899978a9be6bca63f696ee51db | 500 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000000f5e08031af59b262769481370b26dedfd38c24b27e39167c009846e | 00000000cc596cf48d3748cac4a09fd7f2fa3765a808de46441327e7b96b62db | 488 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000052e73d8518a2d01958965c6990ce695837c8730e581b52881ee8c51e | 0000000075836a4523f3f3ce7e7b6ebf4187586d1f161e68ccb4ee4f3cff3e17 | 468 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000002dac70356f9d541597604a4347956204e3c6ae99737362eda6f6dcb7 | 00000000a722d4c9eeefb6ddf6933a585254fff8554603dea4850b75494d0580 | 433 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000007d3e674d6d827996e5d31e36b5995cc14f5a5ed4562adc5ef4175fa1 | 00000000a5f02b494d57da70f62350156d1bf1075b387e83d0bca1628dfb0efb | 422 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000181975d74adfa548eee6f36d7db15698711491f017281a237f85a28a | 00000000be4fc9af78c7265b7dc9b42d797d76282da494f4ed07e4031283eaa6 | 415 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000000606865e679308edf079991764d88e8122ca9250aef5386962b6e84 | 000000000069e1affe7161ab4bcbeacebb4ddf155b50e807f42de971b688a09b | 411 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000093936119142f0f653103e3775ee53144dbbff9b01c9a9064380a0171 | 00000000de6d334392a180078b3d0086284e3d5e375e7da3d303d6569ef56b73 | 392 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000062d93e6843e5be211c104c83bbb73567e37f6505adf5ddda8118eeff | 00000000ac06bc16068ab6971b3e43c5d62fd03b3d1022c7835e1711d56463ca | 384 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000008fe5d6a54317f32f1813755b597c715c1f3d24713b5beb5a1a47a44b | 00000000e17cb3ead21cbc0a6dafc3a6cacc4625645a5953fae3a10a277bc07e | 384 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000eaadf94b1d588bfff6173595c51c378c4fb9c183505b307d9ddae5c1 | 0000000001a039fa5e910ea377b598fe5b92f71caf09a30d447c8ff344cd6041 | 380 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000cb2f5853627c60e339388998e0f4fc71194e6186aedfe1b0ce1ca34f | 0000000072baa25f5b688b9c71fcfd695e045ab2c28106e322292f0ee10efd6c | 368 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000007c21e217c0d5aaeb4c9e7845a514e62c7165357a424430e70891c23b | 00000000e77778a088c48018de670e3e322e2e3f3f20d8d49c63749cced92870 | 357 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000002f53cae81cd5a5d48bb09c3a1bb9513964eadcd2a987a96663f2e2d6 | 000000003ce6abb8978fd84f8746f37bd47c327dae2c372f75627e052fedecc4 | 342 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000407f24682ba062854b2fcf11fe7978b38268dd09acfb0d3ec54dcf5e | 000000005bc3a591f4fb1eb824263897fc5b443a49770fe3f6e8ded565820a99 | 330 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000980f1a8fab4faa2c49c0a8f0ae4f7977e80708b7fd03266055b9f2be | 00000000aee2cabaf6c3c652e4936b43f9f60e5c5f591cb289818cabb74c3350 | 327 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000002218a47fc3cd49f16a2526e2a4c5949055efda451d3af46cf72d1958 | 0000000041a83b18f8f3cf1df306f681098b708f2df2b4b76df09f1562a37284 | 321 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000aee2cabaf6c3c652e4936b43f9f60e5c5f591cb289818cabb74c3350 | 00000000c4cb881455230762403a84d1a613e64d2c2319a3135683cbbc477818 | 308 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000018e2ea36c108d519eeed46c065b80355b2337fc60868c0f1d2458180 | 00000000a0dbe1086bbc9a9f4689d8aa25b91b4d2a575eb82dbd741e65561c48 | 305 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000a7598111d0595321d2399d2b6f02ae7e61d1db8f46e45de6292c0481 | 000000007cafbd38e09d7812224cd55ec53394bdb50268bc0f62a69a527ca1bd | 302 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000018ee7999926286bacfac06e2850456adeb24108edd9364305e34da9f | 00000000ebe096e6677cbd27cd2e65065faa734e8203be3ba6fca83986138ff7 | 300 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000004b0a7e5dae713e8707163736e0072146bee3084ac7e16d54ffe38d62 | 000000007d181f33f2923502705b7a4cb2ec3c256e99ae1ef5ef5cb87748f381 | 299 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000008822a23fd8b7686f532d5c789d068704b380d0b415082b5b6dca6e81 | 00000000af7f8652ec21fc32c5e85ca52a3e2c56b1e7edefb8e8cef96dd0fbc3 | 294 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000cc81b1f9f5e1c5a5ba26847ee57959c21ddb341e3346a3b77af40edb | 000000001c3346ae3c598eceda97e992eb5211fadea1251c99f04c5c8b22675f | 285 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000c8c4533ed6a6d579c5b5e6280dd3d6ea3cc627aadc4d2996caa2358a | 0000000018ee7999926286bacfac06e2850456adeb24108edd9364305e34da9f | 277 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000a32c685aaa574574bf40cccf8e44bb0dee3bc564c3d022b70513b710 | 00000000c87ed8d34a1797bb24e5090ebe69d6c0c8e3661f6908b3b7970f5931 | 263 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000013a10d0e05ebc7c24d0e82f9d7e7591a4bf57281c778125f5bcfcaff | 00000000921858b20e69ee3c0ed6d1419a02f17e253332009beb4a3bdfe3e77b | 263 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000005bc3a591f4fb1eb824263897fc5b443a49770fe3f6e8ded565820a99 | 00000000c8b2cb3a806f4814b1f2199de70a1cbf4c6250b517993f36ccc8b611 | 261 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000edff20adb2d7bb1308a4cc1ad5f0479c949df3b5159582b00196d93d | 000000006ed32719e6c6c4d6fde8cb97f46c5164ead2e561e608f59bef653070 | 260 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000005993ab9515911f072057bfa94b82cfa4e19ce072da2f6c2cc7d5269e | 0000000058f6ed42ea06ccc805d0b4ef361f02253e468be23a58d796f5ac4a62 | 259 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000e5d33e73b2cef6ecdf2b2e1f0e4b21e3c50bcb6febd2058717e95cfb | 00000000c76185ae8b09d2ea0c431708082167d613219e1ed4a48e768266b0ac | 248 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000009e495631ed3798ce861b50dfad193651c7b4810571b6b99f7e466bfd | 00000000a2d5a2ac3f6b1fa2be8e61545961c00ee40cb58c3a3e941f01b2508f | 237 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000e0a3a48835992a12f785a786b21c33d179121ff0cdcc6d8a6f679bec | 00000000a2bed8eb774caed69b9c37e9a725cec85ed8de73f430d3e296a72983 | 234 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000bef2501f26e11064cb3bd349de002ff50aca520e15d6d3dffc5d7e2a | 00000000181975d74adfa548eee6f36d7db15698711491f017281a237f85a28a | 234 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000015b9581a9292e69418ae3c0acf37866e3775067bc149e11cbb2b54df | 0000000078d5796955554bd1233f3210605751c5b6f902e886876a03bae05334 | 232 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000af24991ed5c28707afdb95b33d6a52d6117704d3605ea4efd1abbaeb | 0000000087a9bbec99e23f6b67c4569dc168450668503eda977cbc118ea698eb | 230 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000004b4f144a62698025cd0a2f4cd4a77e301c6482f860453fcae7451b28 | 00000000c76e8dc3887bfd38256ec9e40fa8b572fe261151d2abafcb34d79c3d | 226 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000004107e5dbc7d999c7496e4407c9b7d8daa6226e1035366026bcaff60d | 00000000e980a2637a3eb04fb53cefa7fbb804ae0d520a55b0edea172ab2d3e7 | 225 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000436617dc52052d5d5fbd8bf33f7693d1b66f56995889bc25755e813c | 000000002728faa7a41c17cb8c6364a059959292ab8bb8353382e770322f0e80 | 225 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000006a9a61f62ab4af162ed30272930c2acfc1139d6666455e60569a0a5c | 00000000dd431bce4cf36326ee8b51a7136ebcf664976ba7087bf7d8f3ce0f5d | 224 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000007a75787c2a4ea3811064628f1fbc774e75233bfa457e88c842aee030 | 0000000078d2d3825e6f12f22009d615954b3f59e42a29a18e922a374080021f | 223 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000567e95797f93675ac23683ae3787b183bb36859c18d9220f3fa66a69 | 000000002a22cfee1f2c846adbd12b3e183d4f97683f85dad08a79780a84bd55 | 222 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000a95c3dfac37669ee6f653a9ca5a8620e9be8c49c554452a50725423f | 00000000407f24682ba062854b2fcf11fe7978b38268dd09acfb0d3ec54dcf5e | 220 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000f549ea89e2c7558b7f4032fd7c90da417b65acec6cbfd4942847b931 | 00000000bc6f96def17d3fd0532c7a33ad6efb746cd7f142226f6a11341d9c14 | 217 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000009add40fb84aaba2fdf36f2da161822be09c740eecbdce4bb0134f312 | 000000007c60db323d92f18fd267f76be0e251ae26305c62fc2c2409465fb44e | 217 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000b099c3d6044459c3d4673f3e3d7cd279c8ecc0f7f1696a8b0ac0274c | 0000000021dbcb6ce0f0ddd8eaa1f9a72b4fce141bfc05d72cff60820174f792 | 216 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000ace02fba9eb2b25bd11b8c632343111cdac17b25071557b5c788cb47 | 0000000081ac433c596a735022c5e1f19afcce061a68da4e8547521f647e5ca4 | 214 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000e7050ca0479ee3a47bc5b028bba56d4a1bed2e52e9317cd1fd633c08 | 00000000a8df21790d4785b6b2b9625f452ded9a3cec75b3160377aba5edceeb | 211 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000199ddfb75856a000afa29279e1fc6d438d853ad5baeb1b1d012bf861 | 000000005900fd3ea9d2798d73c82fb994f15ca4819569ffa8bd1ec23a8f002f | 211 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000072e767e1ccf2b1ac0c2ec016b97878238dd21a61e1625efcc311a527 | 0000000096c542c509e47b78b25d4d3a46c837e8b30011c65f0c2d7c547c484b | 208 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000096c758ad0d319df48048963d9026d7aaf24ec7c08a03fa1c612831c7 | 00000000b4ec7a38d98af46f6c853a6c2147376453bd29e25034403a9fdcd833 | 208 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000035a425c8689d3ad26574c4699fd62afe20d8ab412f3c20999587e92c | 0000000050e67c08b11edeaa9439fe1e78c7f4145e9ff13be9d0a466fa56aeb8 | 205 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000005b2ff6e5fe6a8a680374dd7e8120a130d22d2fd0e6ecc8d6352359d9 | 00000000be905c88edb210f918bfc7e214a9edbe9791318e6654a44481c7a399 | 202 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000003cb869ec8f67e0e4149d1bbfd376b4d24e428e435f54d261d3a5259f | 00000000ae564844cce06d19b23d24cc00cf6ba259761de0b4a107cd0957fbc9 | 198 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000800cca5d11742408e3965a84424269df7cecca5896649b1521d22297 | 00000000272568d8ad613b7f441fef896b912d21bca7ad2e18348e8b0ce483e7 | 196 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000a2c925f08867154c4f171de18f65e0c17cdb8a461b892e27d0007ccc | 00000000ad66cc0d6f4381a74fe99dac4efebe51985857deabd75c2411aca232 | 196 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000294beac80a50b8faea71bb79612f7a3cf75f3e40b8606262b7c04309 | 0000000011b8654b41136e6314c70b770460a590437239fc170ff8b53d2e4181 | 196 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000b3114e7f6e56c6a9806526630303e4c3ede7adf6f2de6029911694ca | 000000006874937bd9cdb78069ad9967e5c2f6797700aac07fb6d7a030e21617 | 156 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000739c5e05d27949d20a623f246760e1006c9e6f29ca39c3ceba5a416f | 00000000800cca5d11742408e3965a84424269df7cecca5896649b1521d22297 | 155 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000921858b20e69ee3c0ed6d1419a02f17e253332009beb4a3bdfe3e77b | 00000000af24991ed5c28707afdb95b33d6a52d6117704d3605ea4efd1abbaeb | 155 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000cf02ee68fe5e52bf6579d35e25b89b715544e01ebb2af52f6e573a37 | 000000007af40ab6afe6d09436815a275db06dfe3c26e4d297fda0d9f24f8790 | 154 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000006783ca92b11bb5c370a3d500dfc19cb7f81b241ebb07a024316585c4 | 000000000ddadfebdf445b0d7b44621e98d6bafc91e0a7948bdc0f5454bf22f7 | 154 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000004a6375d83bb252d5458aecdafde944f432bfcbf5a91fe604b8160cca | 00000000e7d7fa57b59184cc635db8a1e96738ecd110ac54e5d422e954f225b0 | 153 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000de6d334392a180078b3d0086284e3d5e375e7da3d303d6569ef56b73 | 000000005b0065cbd1fe6199a14a62baa264c17d432610a18d59275020be2159 | 150 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000008ae57a20465ac4b4b4d08102089ca747796dcd195193ad3e77dea43d | 00000000a11cfd6425e1af804e3ca56ded2b521fe10b779121fc19d5cf37db6e | 150 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000a25cd202aaf0b8674412e62d75bde46fd94d96a72183b9333fe1a004 | 00000000de536100e686e9039b0642e1598c84d915895c6f17b8d1a86cb46a38 | 148 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000010c4ae0c8edf9efc9fd38df2ec325f725a62969410d75884da0e98d6 | 00000000edc080d64924b0f5f5f099d98273914545753f4da9747c50d8fd4fe4 | 147 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000007929b947c796e589df436ba1976300341c50df4880dcc9f54406540c | 00000000957dd4b3a8977edd40768a2757e040fa0d79b7eeed6b92bac2b1ab42 | 146 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000b0aa1df23410bd69eadf201c6aa19e4544f4f0277b9f3cf1270e0497 | 00000000255a14c61ec1664de04580b1b05e06f3b17d9efab0b3f92d2eb6df83 | 146 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000e980a2637a3eb04fb53cefa7fbb804ae0d520a55b0edea172ab2d3e7 | 0000000013a10d0e05ebc7c24d0e82f9d7e7591a4bf57281c778125f5bcfcaff | 146 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000007c60db323d92f18fd267f76be0e251ae26305c62fc2c2409465fb44e | 000000008c6601fb72f860b32fc7cf747d402fd26e141b52a4188e0491957bbf | 146 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000089378befe73325952b17b8ec79d3c4f177fc060ce588fedf94e5c410 | 000000001c871b513815f9c1752301d2f4f8a558cbe733f60127516b91364c80 | 145 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000000000840048f55ccacc74b10bace1ea061a994cd8b5b48d07c8e841f | 000000000000092a5d77f0f3a2bf015a5198fff0bdf3d3fb600651874e7263e0 | 144 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000f65ec02ed1afe14a10abb94e08ca830ea8c5e47a8207f5e98d7fae65 | 000000006a9a61f62ab4af162ed30272930c2acfc1139d6666455e60569a0a5c | 143 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000000000036289b546359f1a7ae4d643ed0282c8866ba1c656a9122a8a1f | 00000000000004f6a74c54c7df842134e3f7a363c1a56137a63c3a2d1e869972 | 141 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000000000000000299c379f7a900bf937fcea9bab1ea55bd959e68266799 | 0000000000000000000ae9eca52d8f314f32fb5ac314d7bb18eb9e9c0f89326c | 139 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000009889527224695ca3201094f6c8324e8a18c292b2e3736e9c880543e8 | 0000000030e64de4829232019f9f05f98b203a1230ac4049a4436360ef3a6f99 | 139 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000000066372e8fa967d3bb9854ffff078276a8edfdafc16288089b2bb2cd | 0000000000dc38e641e0a804f217d1a05139f9dcfdc4ed42ae7fcb7d1dfb2bdf | 133 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000000ad2f9589fd95cc5b06dbf31e37a7ee93ec24d75251fba184bd5db5e | 00000000246ada192c0dfbbf21639ac15632588c6837eea15fc5769f7aad7f29 | 132 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000000000000452884b897e93eac8ee0ae8fc232ef71f70d51b3f75c96cb2 | 0000000000000001cd3b9b26b831ebacbed0d8b38d2d7046cda3fa5f58440977 | 129 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000c06b5dc93da5d7a66f996a5cf5e3043a8a42af09ad68f909b1d97e99 | 00000000001b3783ab66c48133632b90a9afea63354dbca73b6cb660d57b6194 | 122 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000000000000000b975fedb1fe62e271bd20d1fa74d2fe28dcfac6f761f3 | 0000000000000000000b5d9bcbd38c64e5a39bf4073f7a94348c1336618957ae | 122 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000000000000055af1b2188895541b3f229068be5ad63c2bc6a9aacbcd42a | 000000000000000016467960dc43772d1d05a0f3f038b81f779b3ad4136d295a | 122 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000769cadd838bbe424c8859e76a401c26ec22bb06ab3562d2fabcd7b0a | 00000000c4bd403cfb70989f5add22a588f017dfa919fee6cfb19e58bb9a98df | 121 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000c13610092f1b892b84e35235684c4737c25b848058a6d4388e2d1b2b | 0000000042562556b55941fa2a72c5965df573bf864d79f5dd65ef04996e2fe9 | 121 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000006a455b6e2d3c838f2942ae3896f913685660d96c985be7516d6b3ce2 | 000000005b8a14c28510e35529df893d73cba3c4f1c78c68f6029bf50c28ec8e | 121 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000a27bf1a8d8ddae4596d1c34cdc8c29f7ee117744aa013173d2bf7f0a | 00000000377d5d78313b7e5fea4dd9d992dd05c08441241f59c6d2abc901a90a | 121 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000006f064062e711ae314f462b125caa23573c205ab39dbee2e582d730 | 000000000059f68a5e43cc152cd0e509ecd1cc8ac770b62da7be259f89b6a744 | 121 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000000f320e050c67c5c6d2f62660f820be4ee0d80bbab72e819d108ec43 | 00000000011e855947279cad92c26e9877de4bd6917a1de5e08f76cea95e1294 | 121 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000009152484ddc2192bc40c3ad656ab2b167307944d72f0411bb4b7e0099 | 000000003d378891a2f7324795311803239a5222ccb5a3241406756d218017e1 | 120 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000000000d379c7c8e9d5293e80128326ceff8f44e998a94e6fa5f221309a | 0000000000024fa2b47bbac000a73227730db9de1b2c7610a3b1c9675c90c917 | 120 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 00000000a2a7f323e0f4a69f58adb2429f5e3b5097e0a5134e094b87f6abf852 | 0000000046eb0934a822509c1011630427ee707f15d95bad7311d789da05a69b | 120 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000037df70bd3412132531ad910d2efb2ee55ea9d0351b552aade881ffbe | 0000000063689d97780b0e6e4f6d93a27770d50c93cc663cbf36ee662df14188 | 120 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 000000006d8adea045d994ff6d77f03e9b0134a32f807934ba9654d80cb7a9d4 | 000000006bc8272ef0ce21948a034ea13536586d068bb15ee648b198e9682ffd | 120 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| 0000000050e67c08b11edeaa9439fe1e78c7f4145e9ff13be9d0a466fa56aeb8 | 0000000007509c22a18706ddce980f2be2f56035ee29f2f732d03dff65a6719c | 120 m |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
| Occurrences: 152, Mean: 9.55 minutes, Standard Deviation: 14.13, Poisson Probability: 1 / 45550.53 hours |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------+
How often does the Bitcoin network see two consecutive blocks mined more than 2 hours apart from each other?
We should only see this occur once every 3 years using the Poisson distribution. However, according to the full population analysis, we see this occuring in practice far more often. Using the entire population data set, the probability of two consecutive blocks mined more than 2 hours apart from each other is 1 in every 4,924 blocks. This equates to about once a month.
How many times has the above happened so far in the history of Bitcoin?
According to the analysis of the full population set, this has occurred 152 times as of block height 748472. The longest period occuring on 2009-01-08 with block 00000000839a8e6886ab5951d76f411475428afc90947ee320161bbf18eb6048 at height 1 (immediately following the genesis block) clocking in at over 5 1/3 days.
As time goes on, we should see blocks being mined more closely to the 10-minute target with a reducing frequency of large drifts such as over 2 hours. The majority of occurrences have happened in 2009 and during the early days of the network. As such, the distribution is skewed with a long right tail.
A great article on this phenomenon, so-called Bitcoin's "Poisson Paradox" which dives further into the topic.
Possible future improvements:
- Zeroize sensitive data
- Saving a local copy of any blocks that have been previously queried
- Add more analytics